05-10-2016, 09:37 PM
*** 11-May-16 World View -- Azerbaijan and Dagestan celebrate culture as Islamist insurgencies grow
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Azerbaijan celebrates the 'Days of Culture of Dagestan'
****
![[Image: g160510b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160510b.jpg)
Flame Towers -- skyscrapers in Baku, Azerbaijan
Baku, the capital city of Azerbaijan, will host the Days of Culture of
Dagestan on May 12-13. The event will feature a concert of Dagestani
singers, dancers and musicians, and an exhibition of arts and crafts
entitled "Dagestan: History and Modernity". "Lezginka" Academic Dance
Ensemble, "Khasavyurt" State Dance Ensemble and soloists will perform
in the concert. An assortment of business deals will be signed.
The singing and dancing and jolly atmosphere hides a great deal
of tension that both sides would like to ignore.
Dagestan is not an independent country. It's in the North Caucasus,
and is one of Russia's southern provinces, and opposite its southern
border is Azerbaijan. As with all of Russia's Caucasian provinces,
it's populated mostly by Sunni Muslims, many of whom have gone to
Syria to fight against the Shia/Alawite army of Bashar al-Assad, often
joining the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Although a political border separates Dagestan from Azerbaijan, the
ethnic groups that have lived in the region for centuries don't always
follow the political boundaries. AzerTag (Baku) and Azerbaijan News
****
**** Azerbaijan and Dagestan share Sunni Salafist insurgencies
****
Azerbaijan's population is about 80% Shia Muslim, 15% Sunni Muslim and
3% Christian. The government is secular. As I wrote in "7-Dec-2015 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency"
, Azerbaijan is
in the unfortunate situation that it suffers from both a radical Shia
Islamist insurgency, and also a radical Sunni Islamist insurgency.
The latter is occurring mostly in the north, along the border with
Dagestan, where poverty is extensive corruption is widespread, the
government is increasingly oppressive, and the gap between rich and
poor is growing wider every day.
It's estimated that of 1,500 people from Azerbaijan who have gone to
Syria to fight with ISIS are from Sunni groups in the north, on the
border with Dagestan. As in Russia and Central Asia, Azerbaijan
officials are worried that people who have gone to Syria to join ISIS
will return to their homelands to use their newly acquired terrorist
skills. Jamestown and Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Iran state media)
****
**** Nagorno-Karabakh issue still simmers
****
Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave of Armenian citizens in the midst of
Azerbaijan. Depending on whose side you're on, NK is either
legitimately Armenian territory or else an illegal occupation of
Azerbaijan territory by Armenian forces.
Armenia and Azerbaijan got along pretty well during the days when they
were both part of the Soviet Union, but they fell into a bloody war
after the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. By the time that the war
ended in a cease-fire in 1994, the Armenians had annexed several
Azerbaijani regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
Low-level violence has been almost continuous since then, with each
side typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations
every week.
However, early in April the low-level conflict spiraled into the worse
violence since 1994, with tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters.
( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region"
)
A new cease-fire was agreed a few days later, with a return to
low-level violence, but no one doubts that the region could
explode once more, affecting the entire region.
Russia claims to be neutral between the two sides, but few doubt that
Russia strongly supports Armenia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has a
Turkic population and is closely allied with Turkey. Thus, an
escalation in war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could quickly
escalate into a war between Russia and Turkey.
The Armenian government has recently approved a draft bill recognizing
the Nagorno-Karabakh region's independence and sent it to the
country's parliament. If it becomes law, it might be considered a
casus belli by Azerbaijan. For that reason, it's thought that
the independence motion is for domestic consumption in Armenia, and
there are no plans to push it forward. Moscow Times and Trend (Baku)
and ArmenPress (Yerevan)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Azerbaijan, Baku, Dagestan, Russia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, Turkey
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Azerbaijan celebrates the 'Days of Culture of Dagestan'
- Azerbaijan and Dagestan share Sunni Salafist insurgencies
- Nagorno-Karabakh issue still simmers
****
**** Azerbaijan celebrates the 'Days of Culture of Dagestan'
****
Flame Towers -- skyscrapers in Baku, Azerbaijan
Baku, the capital city of Azerbaijan, will host the Days of Culture of
Dagestan on May 12-13. The event will feature a concert of Dagestani
singers, dancers and musicians, and an exhibition of arts and crafts
entitled "Dagestan: History and Modernity". "Lezginka" Academic Dance
Ensemble, "Khasavyurt" State Dance Ensemble and soloists will perform
in the concert. An assortment of business deals will be signed.
The singing and dancing and jolly atmosphere hides a great deal
of tension that both sides would like to ignore.
Dagestan is not an independent country. It's in the North Caucasus,
and is one of Russia's southern provinces, and opposite its southern
border is Azerbaijan. As with all of Russia's Caucasian provinces,
it's populated mostly by Sunni Muslims, many of whom have gone to
Syria to fight against the Shia/Alawite army of Bashar al-Assad, often
joining the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Although a political border separates Dagestan from Azerbaijan, the
ethnic groups that have lived in the region for centuries don't always
follow the political boundaries. AzerTag (Baku) and Azerbaijan News
****
**** Azerbaijan and Dagestan share Sunni Salafist insurgencies
****
Azerbaijan's population is about 80% Shia Muslim, 15% Sunni Muslim and
3% Christian. The government is secular. As I wrote in "7-Dec-2015 World View -- Azerbaijan faces rising radical Shia Islamist insurgency"
, Azerbaijan is
in the unfortunate situation that it suffers from both a radical Shia
Islamist insurgency, and also a radical Sunni Islamist insurgency.
The latter is occurring mostly in the north, along the border with
Dagestan, where poverty is extensive corruption is widespread, the
government is increasingly oppressive, and the gap between rich and
poor is growing wider every day.
It's estimated that of 1,500 people from Azerbaijan who have gone to
Syria to fight with ISIS are from Sunni groups in the north, on the
border with Dagestan. As in Russia and Central Asia, Azerbaijan
officials are worried that people who have gone to Syria to join ISIS
will return to their homelands to use their newly acquired terrorist
skills. Jamestown and Ahlul Bayt News Agency (Iran state media)
****
**** Nagorno-Karabakh issue still simmers
****
Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave of Armenian citizens in the midst of
Azerbaijan. Depending on whose side you're on, NK is either
legitimately Armenian territory or else an illegal occupation of
Azerbaijan territory by Armenian forces.
Armenia and Azerbaijan got along pretty well during the days when they
were both part of the Soviet Union, but they fell into a bloody war
after the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. By the time that the war
ended in a cease-fire in 1994, the Armenians had annexed several
Azerbaijani regions, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
Low-level violence has been almost continuous since then, with each
side typically accusing the other of hundreds of cease-fire violations
every week.
However, early in April the low-level conflict spiraled into the worse
violence since 1994, with tanks, heavy artillery and helicopters.
( "3-Apr-16 World View -- Armenia-Azerbaijan escalating conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh threatens the entire region"
)
A new cease-fire was agreed a few days later, with a return to
low-level violence, but no one doubts that the region could
explode once more, affecting the entire region.
Russia claims to be neutral between the two sides, but few doubt that
Russia strongly supports Armenia. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has a
Turkic population and is closely allied with Turkey. Thus, an
escalation in war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could quickly
escalate into a war between Russia and Turkey.
The Armenian government has recently approved a draft bill recognizing
the Nagorno-Karabakh region's independence and sent it to the
country's parliament. If it becomes law, it might be considered a
casus belli by Azerbaijan. For that reason, it's thought that
the independence motion is for domestic consumption in Armenia, and
there are no plans to push it forward. Moscow Times and Trend (Baku)
and ArmenPress (Yerevan)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Azerbaijan, Baku, Dagestan, Russia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, Turkey
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
