04-23-2017, 12:30 PM
(04-22-2017, 09:29 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: One of the most respected, endorsed by as many scientists in 1972 as
endorse climate change today, was the "Limits to Growth" by the Club
of Rome. The report said that the world would grind to a halt because
of pollution within a few decades. Some time later, it turned out
that their predictions had a flaw based on their computer program
written in Fortran. Anyway, their predictions haven't come true.
I remember that well, though I didn't read it until 1981. Their problem wasn't Fortran, it was that their models didn't take into account any negative feedback loops; obviously with exponential growth, finite resources, and no changes in efficiency, the resources get used up sooner rather than later.
I didn't have a computer at the time, so I duplicated their results with a simplified model using pen and paper. I then added some equations to model pollution control and efficiency improvements as resources dwindled, and the problem went away - as it indeed did in the decades since. An unexpected result of my model was that there would eventually be a backlash against environmentalism, but that part is coming true too.
