04-27-2017, 10:24 PM
*** 28-Apr-17 World View -- Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus
****
![[Image: g170427b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170427b.jpg)
This fence marks the boundary between Syria and the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1981 (EPA)
Syria's news agency SANA reported that Israel's warplanes struck a
military arms depot in Syria near Damascus. The arms depot is
believed to be run by Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is controlled by
Iran. The airstrikes took place before dawn on Thursday, and resulted
in massive explosions that could be seen and heard for miles.
Israel has taken no sides in the war in Syria, but has struck weapons
depots and convoys from time to time in the past when it believes that
the weapons are advanced and are intended for delivery to Hezbollah in
Lebanon to be used against Israel. The advanced weapons may include
precision rockets, advanced anti-aircraft missiles, surface-to-surface
missiles and surface-to-ship missiles.
Usually, Israel refuses to either confirm or deny that it was
responsible for any missile attack, but on Thursday, Israel's
intelligence minister Israel Katz made a statement that comes
very close to confirming that Israel was responsible:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I can confirm that the incident in Syria corresponds
> completely with Israel's policy to act to prevent Iran's smuggling
> of advanced weapons via Syria to Hezbollah in Iran. Naturally, I
> don't want to elaborate on this.
>
> The prime minister has said that whenever we receive intelligence
> that indicated an intention to transfer advanced weapons to
> Hezbollah, we will act."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova mildly condemned
the Israeli action, but suggested that they might be "justified":
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Gross violations of Syrian sovereignty, no matter how
> they are justified, are unacceptable. Moscow condemns acts of
> aggression against Syria."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The most serious incident of this kind occurred in mid-March, when an
Israeli attack on a weapons convoy traveling to Lebanon was destroyed
by Israeli warplanes. There was an unprecedented missile clash over Jordan
when Syrian Russian-made
S-200 ground to air missiles targeted the Israeli planes without
success, but were shot down over Jordan by Israel's Arrow 3
anti-missile defense system.
These Israeli airstrikes have been going on for years, with an
occasional diplomatic condemnation from Russia, like the mild
condemnation quoted above, but no military response, although Russia
could presumably attack Israel's warplanes with an advanced
anti-missile system. It's widely believed that Russia and Israel have
an agreement to allow these airstrikes since they have the purpose of
preventing a larger regional war between Hezbollah and Israel, which
would not be to Russia's liking. BBC and
AFP and SANA (Damascus)
and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
****
**** Israeli analyst: A new war with Hezbollah might involve all of Lebanon
****
In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a war that was disastrous for
both sides, as it ended in stalemate after a great deal of mutual
destruction.
In an interview on the BBC, Giora Eiland, former head of the Israeli
National Security Council, discussed Israel's strategy with regard to
the Syria war and a possible future war with Hezbollah. He said that
the number one threat that Israel faces is not the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), especially since ISIS is
diminishing in power because of attacks on it in Syria. The number
one threat that Israel faces is a new war with Hezbollah (my
transcription):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that we have to understand something that is
> much more important than this kind of very delicate game, and this
> is what might happen maybe in this summer if the problems in Syria
> are not necessarily resolved but if Hezbollah, Iran, the Syrians
> and the Russians feel that they are are the winning side, and
> Hezbollah might begin to think about the next phase -- the next
> phase might be to find a reason to be in full confrontation with
> Israel, and I cannot exclude the possibility that Iran will push
> them to do something like this.
>
> And this is something that might bring the whole Middle East to be
> in a very different situation. And the main message is this:
> contrary to all previous times, when Israel and Hezbollah had some
> kind of direct confrontation between them, this time if a fire is
> launched from Lebanon against Israel, it will lead not only to
> confrontation with Hezbollah, but to a real confrontation or even
> a declared official war between Israel and Lebanon. And this is
> something that might change the regular stories of the Middle
> East, and I think that Israel might be taking such an approach,
> because the only way to end the next cycle of violence quickly is
> to attack Lebanon, and to threaten that the whole state of Lebanon
> might be devastated, and this might be the only to get the
> international community to intervene, and to stop the aggression.
> And this is a scenario that cannot be excluded. ...
>
> Number one threat for Israel is not ISIS but -- the threat of ISIS
> is diminishing because of the success of others. If Iran feels
> it's winning in Syria, it might take advantage of it and send some
> of its proxies to Lebanon and also the Golan Heights, and might
> encourage Hezbollah to open another confrontation with Israel. If
> Hezbollah decides to fight Israel, and since they have missiles
> that can cover all of Israel, and the number of missiles are tens
> of thousands, many of them are accurate weapons, then Israel might
> face a problem that we never faced in the past, and it might lead
> Israel to take some extreme measures."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This analysis by Eiland is realistic, but is delusional in one area:
If there is a war between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands of
Hezbollah missiles hitting Israeli targets, and it expands to "a
declared official war between Israel and Lebanon," then the
international community will not be able to end it.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. This is coming with 100%
certainty, irrespective of what Israel and Hezbollah do. AP and LA Times
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran,
Israel Katz, Russia, Maria Zakharova, Jordan, Giora Eiland,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus
- Israeli analyst: A new war with Hezbollah might involve all of Lebanon
****
**** Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus
****
This fence marks the boundary between Syria and the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1981 (EPA)
Syria's news agency SANA reported that Israel's warplanes struck a
military arms depot in Syria near Damascus. The arms depot is
believed to be run by Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is controlled by
Iran. The airstrikes took place before dawn on Thursday, and resulted
in massive explosions that could be seen and heard for miles.
Israel has taken no sides in the war in Syria, but has struck weapons
depots and convoys from time to time in the past when it believes that
the weapons are advanced and are intended for delivery to Hezbollah in
Lebanon to be used against Israel. The advanced weapons may include
precision rockets, advanced anti-aircraft missiles, surface-to-surface
missiles and surface-to-ship missiles.
Usually, Israel refuses to either confirm or deny that it was
responsible for any missile attack, but on Thursday, Israel's
intelligence minister Israel Katz made a statement that comes
very close to confirming that Israel was responsible:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I can confirm that the incident in Syria corresponds
> completely with Israel's policy to act to prevent Iran's smuggling
> of advanced weapons via Syria to Hezbollah in Iran. Naturally, I
> don't want to elaborate on this.
>
> The prime minister has said that whenever we receive intelligence
> that indicated an intention to transfer advanced weapons to
> Hezbollah, we will act."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Russian foreign ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova mildly condemned
the Israeli action, but suggested that they might be "justified":
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Gross violations of Syrian sovereignty, no matter how
> they are justified, are unacceptable. Moscow condemns acts of
> aggression against Syria."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The most serious incident of this kind occurred in mid-March, when an
Israeli attack on a weapons convoy traveling to Lebanon was destroyed
by Israeli warplanes. There was an unprecedented missile clash over Jordan
when Syrian Russian-made
S-200 ground to air missiles targeted the Israeli planes without
success, but were shot down over Jordan by Israel's Arrow 3
anti-missile defense system.
These Israeli airstrikes have been going on for years, with an
occasional diplomatic condemnation from Russia, like the mild
condemnation quoted above, but no military response, although Russia
could presumably attack Israel's warplanes with an advanced
anti-missile system. It's widely believed that Russia and Israel have
an agreement to allow these airstrikes since they have the purpose of
preventing a larger regional war between Hezbollah and Israel, which
would not be to Russia's liking. BBC and
AFP and SANA (Damascus)
and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
- Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
- Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
- Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine (14-May-2016)
- Deep Saudi-Lebanon crisis widens the Mideast's sectarian fault line (10-Mar-2016)
****
**** Israeli analyst: A new war with Hezbollah might involve all of Lebanon
****
In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a war that was disastrous for
both sides, as it ended in stalemate after a great deal of mutual
destruction.
In an interview on the BBC, Giora Eiland, former head of the Israeli
National Security Council, discussed Israel's strategy with regard to
the Syria war and a possible future war with Hezbollah. He said that
the number one threat that Israel faces is not the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), especially since ISIS is
diminishing in power because of attacks on it in Syria. The number
one threat that Israel faces is a new war with Hezbollah (my
transcription):
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that we have to understand something that is
> much more important than this kind of very delicate game, and this
> is what might happen maybe in this summer if the problems in Syria
> are not necessarily resolved but if Hezbollah, Iran, the Syrians
> and the Russians feel that they are are the winning side, and
> Hezbollah might begin to think about the next phase -- the next
> phase might be to find a reason to be in full confrontation with
> Israel, and I cannot exclude the possibility that Iran will push
> them to do something like this.
>
> And this is something that might bring the whole Middle East to be
> in a very different situation. And the main message is this:
> contrary to all previous times, when Israel and Hezbollah had some
> kind of direct confrontation between them, this time if a fire is
> launched from Lebanon against Israel, it will lead not only to
> confrontation with Hezbollah, but to a real confrontation or even
> a declared official war between Israel and Lebanon. And this is
> something that might change the regular stories of the Middle
> East, and I think that Israel might be taking such an approach,
> because the only way to end the next cycle of violence quickly is
> to attack Lebanon, and to threaten that the whole state of Lebanon
> might be devastated, and this might be the only to get the
> international community to intervene, and to stop the aggression.
> And this is a scenario that cannot be excluded. ...
>
> Number one threat for Israel is not ISIS but -- the threat of ISIS
> is diminishing because of the success of others. If Iran feels
> it's winning in Syria, it might take advantage of it and send some
> of its proxies to Lebanon and also the Golan Heights, and might
> encourage Hezbollah to open another confrontation with Israel. If
> Hezbollah decides to fight Israel, and since they have missiles
> that can cover all of Israel, and the number of missiles are tens
> of thousands, many of them are accurate weapons, then Israel might
> face a problem that we never faced in the past, and it might lead
> Israel to take some extreme measures."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This analysis by Eiland is realistic, but is delusional in one area:
If there is a war between Israel and Hezbollah, with thousands of
Hezbollah missiles hitting Israeli targets, and it expands to "a
declared official war between Israel and Lebanon," then the
international community will not be able to end it.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. This is coming with 100%
certainty, irrespective of what Israel and Hezbollah do. AP and LA Times
Related Articles
- Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
- Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
- How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hezbollah (23-Dec-2006)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran,
Israel Katz, Russia, Maria Zakharova, Jordan, Giora Eiland,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
