04-30-2017, 09:04 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-01-2017, 06:28 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 1-May-17 World View -- France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** France's presidential election in doubt because of abstainers
****
![[Image: g170430b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170430b.jpg)
A youth kicks a teargas canister in Paris on Thursday during a protest against both Le Pen and Macron (AFP)
In the upcoming decisive May 7 final round in France's election of a
new president, Emmanuel Macron, the centrist 39-year-old former
investment banker, is expected to beat 48-year-old far-right candidate
Marine Le Pen by about 20 points, based on current polling.
Mainstream media observers are hoping for an even bigger Le Pen
defeat, which would be a repeat of the 2002 election.
When Marine Le Pen's father, 73 year old Jean-Marie Le Pen, then
leader of the Front National, received 17% of the vote in first round
of France's presidential election on April 21, 2002, he knocked the
former socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, out of the
second-round runoff. This was such a shock to the French public, that
all other parties and candidates rallied against Le Pen in what was
called the "Republican front," and gave the conservative candidate
Jacques Chirac a massive victory with 82% of the vote. In other
words, Le Pen didn't get any additional votes in the second round than
he did in the first.
Now Marine Le Pen has won 21.3% of the votes in the first round of
France's presidential election on April 23, 2017, knocking out the
Republican, François Fillon, the Socialist, Benoît Hamon, and the
far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This sets up a two-way race
between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old centrist
who won 24% of the vote of the vote in the first round.
The question is: will another "Republican front" emerge in 2017, as it
did in 2002? Will all other parties, candidates and voters
unanimously rally against Le Pen, in favor of Macron? We already know
that's not going to happen.
First, Mélenchon is refusing to endorse either Le Pen or Macron. He
announced to his supporters:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"You don't need me to tell you who to vote. I'm not a
> guru, not a guide."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
After Marine Le Pen responded by saying that she would go after
Mélenchon's voters, Mélenchon's spokesman Alexis Corbière said, "Not
one vote should go to the National Front," implying that Mélenchon
really does support Macron. According to a poll, Mélenchon's voters
would break 40% for Macron and 19% for Le Pen -- and 41% would
abstain.
And that's the second major issue: the abstainers. Many college
students are opposed to both Le Pen and Macron, and some are violently
opposed, as shown on Thursday by several hundred school students who
threw glasses and smoke bombs at police during a "Neither Marine, nor
Macron" demonstration in Paris.
One 18-year-old girl told RFI:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I don’t want to choose between liberalism and
> fascism. Don’t need someone who worked for the bank, with his
> program he’s going to put France in the sh-t, but fascism isn’t
> the solution either. I don’t want to choose between two
> diseases."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Macron left investment banking and launched his political career as
economy minister in the Socialist government of the current president,
François Hollande. Macron quit Hollande's government in August of
last year, and built up his own political following.
Both Macron and Le Pen have family issues. In 2007, Macron pursued
and married a woman 25 years older, the now 64 year old Brigitte
Trogneux, a mother of three who left her husband for Macron. Le Pen
is twice-divorced mother of three.
What effects all this will have on the election results is anyone's
guess. As in the case of Donald Trump, the mainstream media are
opposed to Le Pen to the point of incoherence, so it's impossible to
figure out what's going on from media reports. AFP and Deutsche Welle and RFI
****
**** France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy
****
Marine Le Pen has campaigned against immigration, Islam, globalism,
NATO, the European Union, and the euro currency. She has advocated
"Frexit," by which she means that France should leave the eurozone and
return to the French franc currency, and possibly leave the European
Union altogether, just like Britain and Brexit. Many people fear that
if she wins, then the entire European project will be in jeopardy.
However, there are two signs that those fears are overblown.
The first sign is that the European Union nations appear to have come
together in greater unity as a result of the coming negotiations for
Britain's leaving the European Union, as we described yesterday.
The second reason is that Le Pen herself appears to be backtracking on
her position on the euro. This would be similar to what's happened
with Donald Trump, who backed off some of his extreme positions while
the election campaign was still on, and has backed off further since
becoming president.
Le Pen's stated policy platforms in the past have included:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"To support French companies in the face of unfair
> international competition through the implementation of
> intelligent protectionism and the restoration of a national
> currency adapted to our economy, the vehicle of our
> competitiveness. ...
>
> Monetary and budgetary sovereignty, because there is no free-state
> without a currency, and then economic sovereignty, to be able to
> implement economic patriotism. ...
>
> The euro is the currency of the bankers, not the people who have
> seen the decline of its purchasing power and mass
> unemployment."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Le Pen is now facing up to the reality that leaving the euro currency
is one of the least popular of her policies, as most of her voter base
is more concerned about immigration and Islam.
So last week, in an interview, she said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This means converting the single currency into a
> common euro, a currency that will not affect daily purchases, but
> only large companies that trade internationally."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
She's also loosened her timetable. In past she promised a "Frexit"
referendum within six months of taking office, but now she's saying:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The transition from the single currency to the
> European common currency is not a pre-requisite of all economic
> policy, the timetable will adapt to the immediate priorities and
> challenges facing the French government.
>
> Everything will be done to ensure an orderly transition ...and the
> coordinated construction of the right for each country to control
> its own currency and its central bank."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So she's no longer talking about a referendum, and she's no longer
talking about leaving the euro currency. As far as I can make out,
she wants to have TWO euro currencies, one for international trade,
and one for daily purposes. This is totally delusional, and appears
to me to be to be a sign of desperation. Euro News and Reuters and Bloomberg
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron,
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Front National, Jacques Chirac, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
Brexit, Frexit
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- France's presidential election in doubt because of abstainers
- France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy
****
**** France's presidential election in doubt because of abstainers
****
A youth kicks a teargas canister in Paris on Thursday during a protest against both Le Pen and Macron (AFP)
In the upcoming decisive May 7 final round in France's election of a
new president, Emmanuel Macron, the centrist 39-year-old former
investment banker, is expected to beat 48-year-old far-right candidate
Marine Le Pen by about 20 points, based on current polling.
Mainstream media observers are hoping for an even bigger Le Pen
defeat, which would be a repeat of the 2002 election.
When Marine Le Pen's father, 73 year old Jean-Marie Le Pen, then
leader of the Front National, received 17% of the vote in first round
of France's presidential election on April 21, 2002, he knocked the
former socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, out of the
second-round runoff. This was such a shock to the French public, that
all other parties and candidates rallied against Le Pen in what was
called the "Republican front," and gave the conservative candidate
Jacques Chirac a massive victory with 82% of the vote. In other
words, Le Pen didn't get any additional votes in the second round than
he did in the first.
Now Marine Le Pen has won 21.3% of the votes in the first round of
France's presidential election on April 23, 2017, knocking out the
Republican, François Fillon, the Socialist, Benoît Hamon, and the
far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This sets up a two-way race
between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old centrist
who won 24% of the vote of the vote in the first round.
The question is: will another "Republican front" emerge in 2017, as it
did in 2002? Will all other parties, candidates and voters
unanimously rally against Le Pen, in favor of Macron? We already know
that's not going to happen.
First, Mélenchon is refusing to endorse either Le Pen or Macron. He
announced to his supporters:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"You don't need me to tell you who to vote. I'm not a
> guru, not a guide."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
After Marine Le Pen responded by saying that she would go after
Mélenchon's voters, Mélenchon's spokesman Alexis Corbière said, "Not
one vote should go to the National Front," implying that Mélenchon
really does support Macron. According to a poll, Mélenchon's voters
would break 40% for Macron and 19% for Le Pen -- and 41% would
abstain.
And that's the second major issue: the abstainers. Many college
students are opposed to both Le Pen and Macron, and some are violently
opposed, as shown on Thursday by several hundred school students who
threw glasses and smoke bombs at police during a "Neither Marine, nor
Macron" demonstration in Paris.
One 18-year-old girl told RFI:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I don’t want to choose between liberalism and
> fascism. Don’t need someone who worked for the bank, with his
> program he’s going to put France in the sh-t, but fascism isn’t
> the solution either. I don’t want to choose between two
> diseases."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Macron left investment banking and launched his political career as
economy minister in the Socialist government of the current president,
François Hollande. Macron quit Hollande's government in August of
last year, and built up his own political following.
Both Macron and Le Pen have family issues. In 2007, Macron pursued
and married a woman 25 years older, the now 64 year old Brigitte
Trogneux, a mother of three who left her husband for Macron. Le Pen
is twice-divorced mother of three.
What effects all this will have on the election results is anyone's
guess. As in the case of Donald Trump, the mainstream media are
opposed to Le Pen to the point of incoherence, so it's impossible to
figure out what's going on from media reports. AFP and Deutsche Welle and RFI
****
**** France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy
****
Marine Le Pen has campaigned against immigration, Islam, globalism,
NATO, the European Union, and the euro currency. She has advocated
"Frexit," by which she means that France should leave the eurozone and
return to the French franc currency, and possibly leave the European
Union altogether, just like Britain and Brexit. Many people fear that
if she wins, then the entire European project will be in jeopardy.
However, there are two signs that those fears are overblown.
The first sign is that the European Union nations appear to have come
together in greater unity as a result of the coming negotiations for
Britain's leaving the European Union, as we described yesterday.
The second reason is that Le Pen herself appears to be backtracking on
her position on the euro. This would be similar to what's happened
with Donald Trump, who backed off some of his extreme positions while
the election campaign was still on, and has backed off further since
becoming president.
Le Pen's stated policy platforms in the past have included:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"To support French companies in the face of unfair
> international competition through the implementation of
> intelligent protectionism and the restoration of a national
> currency adapted to our economy, the vehicle of our
> competitiveness. ...
>
> Monetary and budgetary sovereignty, because there is no free-state
> without a currency, and then economic sovereignty, to be able to
> implement economic patriotism. ...
>
> The euro is the currency of the bankers, not the people who have
> seen the decline of its purchasing power and mass
> unemployment."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Le Pen is now facing up to the reality that leaving the euro currency
is one of the least popular of her policies, as most of her voter base
is more concerned about immigration and Islam.
So last week, in an interview, she said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This means converting the single currency into a
> common euro, a currency that will not affect daily purchases, but
> only large companies that trade internationally."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
She's also loosened her timetable. In past she promised a "Frexit"
referendum within six months of taking office, but now she's saying:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The transition from the single currency to the
> European common currency is not a pre-requisite of all economic
> policy, the timetable will adapt to the immediate priorities and
> challenges facing the French government.
>
> Everything will be done to ensure an orderly transition ...and the
> coordinated construction of the right for each country to control
> its own currency and its central bank."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So she's no longer talking about a referendum, and she's no longer
talking about leaving the euro currency. As far as I can make out,
she wants to have TWO euro currencies, one for international trade,
and one for daily purposes. This is totally delusional, and appears
to me to be to be a sign of desperation. Euro News and Reuters and Bloomberg
Related Articles
- European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations (30-Apr-2017)
- EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections (20-Apr-2017)
- Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
- France heads for chaos in Sunday's first round election for President (22-Apr-2007)
- Sarkozy begins term as activist President of France (19-May-2007)
- Tony Blair: We need jobs, not subsidies for cows (24-Jun-2005)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron,
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Front National, Jacques Chirac, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
Brexit, Frexit
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
