05-05-2017, 10:02 PM
*** 6-May-17 World View -- Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep
****
![[Image: g170505b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170505b.jpg)
Rock-throwing youths clash with police in Kashmir (Hindustan Times)
The conflict between Indian security forces and Kashmiris took another
leap higher this week as a force of 3,000 men from security forces
began a massive counter-militant operation, the largest seen in
decades. Soldiers, paramilitary troopers and policemen started cordon
operations and house-to-house searches in 20 villages in and around
the restive Shopian district in southern Kashmir, beginning on
Thursday.
The operation follows a terrorist attack in Shopian on Tuesday, when
militants attacked a police station and took off with five service
rifles. On Wednesday, there were two armed bank robberies in the
region, where militants took off with thousands of dollars. After the
counter-militant operation began on Thursday, clashes erupted between
Kashmiri youth pelting stones at security forces.
According to one senior police officer, "It is impossible to capture
the militants, but we hope there will be contact [exchange of fire]
with them in the course of the day."
Clashes between Kashmiris and security forces increased significantly
after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the leader of the Kashmir
separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed by Indian police fire.
Security forces responded harshly to the violence by using pellet
guns, with the result that 1,000 people lost their vision in one eye
and five were blinded. Thousands of Kashmiri youths were arrested.
The big surge in violence finally subsided in November, and Indian
officials decided that their harsh reprisals had been successful in
subduing the violence. However, it now appears that what was subduing
the violence was the cold weather, and now that the weather is warming
again, the violence is increasing significantly.
As I've written several times,
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying
previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard
template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British
colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of
the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died
off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past
disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.
As the weather has warmed in the last few weeks, the violence has been
increasing. Generational Dynamics predicts that Kashmir is returning
to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely bloody partition war of
1947. Exactly when this full-scale war will occur cannot be
predicted, but there are still several long, hot months of summer this
year, and there is no hope that the clashes will subside until,
perhaps, when winter arrives again.
Many people are comparing the current Kashmir violence with
temporary violence that occurred in the 1990s. But there are
significant differences between today's violence and the 1990s
violence.
In the 1990s, there were still plenty of survivors of the bloody
1947 partition war, and these people would have held their children
back, saying that it's better to suffer a little discrimination
than to get killed.
Today, in a generational Crisis era, young people seem to
have no fear of being killed. This represents a significant
change of mood. Even more alarming, for the first time,
young girls are joining the boys in throwing stones. This change
in mood is a significant difference from the 1990s.
Another difference is that today, local Kashmiri militants are
collaborating with militants from Pakistan terror groups, including
Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Toiba. The foreign terrorist supply
weapons and get advance information about topography, routes, movement
of Indian troops. This makes the separatist militants far more
dangerous than they were 20 years ago. BBC and Hindustan Times and Geo TV (Pakistan)
Related Articles
****
**** Narendra Modi's 'demonetization' program results in more Kashmir bank robberies
****
As we described above, India's massive counter-militant operation
began just after militant attacks on a police stations and two armed
bank robberies. During the past seven months, there have been 13
incidents of bank robbery, with militants looting hundreds of
thousands of dollars.
The number of bank robberies has gone up started increasing
dramatically in November of last year, and many analysts relate the
increase to the 'demonetization' program announced by India's prime minister Narendra Modi
at that
time. The policy declared high value 500-1000 rupee notes to be
worthless, with the stated objective of reducing corruption. However,
the policy was something of a disaster, since many people had no valid
cash to purchase necessities like food.
Shortly after the 'demonetization' policy went into effect, India's
defense minister Manohar Parrikar bragged that the demonetization
program has substantially reduced the amount of violence in Kashmir,
by reducing incidents of stone-pelting. According to Parrikar:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting
> [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something
> else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days
> after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security
> forces. I congratulate PM for it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in
counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all
500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became
worthless.
Parrikar is correct that the number of stone-throwing incidents
fell at that time but, as we stated above, the reduction in violence
was actually caused by the cold winter weather, and now that the
weather is warming again, stone-throwing incidents are recurring.
However, another outcome of the demonetization program seems more
certain, following the "Law of Unintended Consequences." With the
counterfeit 500-1000 Rs notes worthless, militants needed to get cash
from another source, and that other source has apparently turned out
to be bank robbery. India Today and Rising Kashmir and Kashmir Reader
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Shopian, Pakistan,
Hizbul Mujahideen, Burhan Wani, Lashkar-e-Toiba,
Narendra Modi, demonetization, Manohar Parrikar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep
- Narendra Modi's 'demonetization' program results in more Kashmir bank robberies
****
**** Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep
****
Rock-throwing youths clash with police in Kashmir (Hindustan Times)
The conflict between Indian security forces and Kashmiris took another
leap higher this week as a force of 3,000 men from security forces
began a massive counter-militant operation, the largest seen in
decades. Soldiers, paramilitary troopers and policemen started cordon
operations and house-to-house searches in 20 villages in and around
the restive Shopian district in southern Kashmir, beginning on
Thursday.
The operation follows a terrorist attack in Shopian on Tuesday, when
militants attacked a police station and took off with five service
rifles. On Wednesday, there were two armed bank robberies in the
region, where militants took off with thousands of dollars. After the
counter-militant operation began on Thursday, clashes erupted between
Kashmiri youth pelting stones at security forces.
According to one senior police officer, "It is impossible to capture
the militants, but we hope there will be contact [exchange of fire]
with them in the course of the day."
Clashes between Kashmiris and security forces increased significantly
after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the leader of the Kashmir
separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed by Indian police fire.
Security forces responded harshly to the violence by using pellet
guns, with the result that 1,000 people lost their vision in one eye
and five were blinded. Thousands of Kashmiri youths were arrested.
The big surge in violence finally subsided in November, and Indian
officials decided that their harsh reprisals had been successful in
subduing the violence. However, it now appears that what was subduing
the violence was the cold weather, and now that the weather is warming
again, the violence is increasing significantly.
As I've written several times,
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying
previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard
template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British
colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of
the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.
Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died
off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past
disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.
As the weather has warmed in the last few weeks, the violence has been
increasing. Generational Dynamics predicts that Kashmir is returning
to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely bloody partition war of
1947. Exactly when this full-scale war will occur cannot be
predicted, but there are still several long, hot months of summer this
year, and there is no hope that the clashes will subside until,
perhaps, when winter arrives again.
Many people are comparing the current Kashmir violence with
temporary violence that occurred in the 1990s. But there are
significant differences between today's violence and the 1990s
violence.
In the 1990s, there were still plenty of survivors of the bloody
1947 partition war, and these people would have held their children
back, saying that it's better to suffer a little discrimination
than to get killed.
Today, in a generational Crisis era, young people seem to
have no fear of being killed. This represents a significant
change of mood. Even more alarming, for the first time,
young girls are joining the boys in throwing stones. This change
in mood is a significant difference from the 1990s.
Another difference is that today, local Kashmiri militants are
collaborating with militants from Pakistan terror groups, including
Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Toiba. The foreign terrorist supply
weapons and get advance information about topography, routes, movement
of Indian troops. This makes the separatist militants far more
dangerous than they were 20 years ago. BBC and Hindustan Times and Geo TV (Pakistan)
Related Articles
- Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten (22-Apr-2017)
- Worries grow that India is 'losing Kashmir,' as violence increases (18-Apr-2017)
- India-Pakistan clash threatened as Kashmir violence surges again (01-Apr-2017)
- The debate in Pakistan: Good terrorists vs Bad terrorists (09-Aug-2016)
****
**** Narendra Modi's 'demonetization' program results in more Kashmir bank robberies
****
As we described above, India's massive counter-militant operation
began just after militant attacks on a police stations and two armed
bank robberies. During the past seven months, there have been 13
incidents of bank robbery, with militants looting hundreds of
thousands of dollars.
The number of bank robberies has gone up started increasing
dramatically in November of last year, and many analysts relate the
increase to the 'demonetization' program announced by India's prime minister Narendra Modi
at that
time. The policy declared high value 500-1000 rupee notes to be
worthless, with the stated objective of reducing corruption. However,
the policy was something of a disaster, since many people had no valid
cash to purchase necessities like food.
Shortly after the 'demonetization' policy went into effect, India's
defense minister Manohar Parrikar bragged that the demonetization
program has substantially reduced the amount of violence in Kashmir,
by reducing incidents of stone-pelting. According to Parrikar:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting
> [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something
> else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days
> after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security
> forces. I congratulate PM for it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in
counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all
500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became
worthless.
Parrikar is correct that the number of stone-throwing incidents
fell at that time but, as we stated above, the reduction in violence
was actually caused by the cold winter weather, and now that the
weather is warming again, stone-throwing incidents are recurring.
However, another outcome of the demonetization program seems more
certain, following the "Law of Unintended Consequences." With the
counterfeit 500-1000 Rs notes worthless, militants needed to get cash
from another source, and that other source has apparently turned out
to be bank robbery. India Today and Rising Kashmir and Kashmir Reader
Related Articles
- India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence (03-Dec-2016)
- India's prime minister Narendra Modi declares 500-1000 rupee notes worthless (12-Nov-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Shopian, Pakistan,
Hizbul Mujahideen, Burhan Wani, Lashkar-e-Toiba,
Narendra Modi, demonetization, Manohar Parrikar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
