05-06-2017, 09:03 PM
*** 7-May-17 World View -- European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
****
![[Image: g170506b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170506b.jpg)
Protesters in front of parliament in Skopje, Macedonia, on Tuesday (Reuters)
Two weeks ago, thousands of ethnic nationalist Macedonians surrounded
Macedonia's parliament building in the capital city Skopje, and then
stormed the building, as we reported at the time.
More than 100 people were injured, including
protestors, policemen and lawmakers.
The protests have been continuing, although there's been no further
violence, but there are concerns of more violence when a political
deadline passes in ten days.
The protests were triggered when an ethnic Albanian, Talat Xhaferi,
was elected Speaker of the Parliament. Xhaferi was also a leader of
the Albanian anti-government rebellion in a brief Albanian-Macedonian
non-crisis civil war in 2001, raising new fears about a renewal of the
civil war.
Macedonia's politics became chaotic after December 11 of last year,
when an election was held giving the two major parties, the SDSM
(Social Democrats), led by Zoran Zaev, and the VMRO-DPMNE, led by
Nikola Gruevski, an almost equal number of seats in the parliament.
The SDSM party broke the deadlock by forming a coalition with several
Albanian parties, thus giving themselves a parliamentary majority,
controlling at least 67 of the 120 seats in parliament. However, the
VMRO party under Prime Minister Gruevski have been governing the
country for more than a decade, and were reluctant to give up power.
The situation was further complicated by the fact that if Gruevski
loses power, then he's liable to go to jail over accusations of
mass-wiretapping of opposition politicians. Two years ago, a
wiretapping scandal revealed that the government had tapped the phones
of over 26,000 people, including politicians, journalists, and civil
society activists.
Since December the government has been in chaos, since the
pro-Macedonian president, Gjorge Ivanov, refused to recognize the SDSM
government, and allow Zaev to become prime minister. He claimed that
doing so would "Albanianize" Macedonia by allowing wider official use
of the Albanian language, which was a demand of the Albanian parties
in return for joining the SDSM coalition.
So two weeks ago, the SDSM and Albanian coalition in the parliament
selected ethnic Albanian Talat Xhaferi as speaker of the parliament.
This selection infuriated Ivanov and the nationalist Macedonian
supporters of the VMRO party, triggering the bloody riots. The
protests have been continuing since then, with thousands of VMRO
supporters turning out in Skopje on Tuesday, although there has been
no more violence.
On Thursday, Xhaferi sent a letter to Ivanov, noting that a
"parliament majority has been established" and that he expects the
president to act according to the constitution, and give control of
the government to the SDSM, and allow Zoran Zaev to become prime
minister, putting an end to more than a decade in power for the VMRO.
Ivanov nas not yet confirmed that he received the letter. He has ten
days to respond to the letter. No matter what action or inaction he
takes on that day, there may be more violence. Balkan Insight and European Council On Foreign Relations and BBC
Related Articles
****
**** Macedonia comments reveal acrimonious divisions in the Western Balkans
****
The article on Macedonia that I wrote two weeks ago was cross-posted
as usual on the Breitbart National Security site, and received dozens of the
most acrimonious and vitriolic comments that any of my articles have
ever received. These comments came from all sides -- especially the
Macedonians, the Greeks, the Albanians and the Bulgarians.
Greek commenters were particularly infuriated by my brief history of
Alexander the Great, referring to him as "the most famous leader in
Macedonia's history." Here's a brief summary of the comments by Greek
readers:
Macedonians reject all of this:
There's an interesting question here: How long do two population
groups have to be separated before they can be called separate ethnic
groups? It may (or may not) be true that Macedonians were Bulgarians
in the Middle Ages, but that was many centuries ago. Having been
apart from the Bulgarians for centuries, today they're recognized as a
distinct Macedonian ethnic group by almost every nation outside of
Greece, and they're recognized by the United Nations and European
Union as Macedonians.
As for Alexander the Great, today's Macedonians and Greeks each claim
him as their own. This is an issue that will probably never be
settled peacefully.
A number of Albanian commenters criticized my use of the phrase
"Greater Albania," a movement to enlarge Albania by including ethnic
Albanian populations from neighboring countries, including Macedonia
and Kosovo. Some claimed that no such movement exists, although that
claim appears not to be true, as can be determined by googling the
words "Greater Albania." However, other comments gave a more nuanced
explanation, that the phrase "Greater Albania" was invented by the
Serbs and the Russians to cover up a movement for a "Greater Serbia."
One commenter said, "We Albanian Muslims live in peace with Christian
Albanians. It's only the Serbs and Macedonians who we cannot live in
peace with us due to historical territorial claims."
There is some truth to the claim of meddling by the Russians. The
Russian government is backing the VMRO and Nikola Gruevski, and
Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement in March:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"With active cooperation of the EU and NATO officials,
> an 'Albanian platform' created in Tirana [Albania's capital city],
> in the office of the (Albanian) prime minister, is being imposed
> on Macedonians."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
My article on Macedonia
is turning
out to be one of the most acrimoniously contentious that I've ever
written, with extreme ideologues on both sides posting vitriolic
comments. My conclusion from this situation is that history is
repeating itself in the sense that the Balkans region is one of the
most explosive regions in the world.
The Albanians and Turks are mostly Muslim. The Macedonians,
Bulgarians, Serbs, Greeks and Russians are all mostly Orthodox
Christian. The Muslim and Orthodox Christian civilizations have had
repeated massive wars for centuries, centered in the Balkans, Crimea,
and the Caucasus. And as I've been saying for years, Generational
Dynamics predicts that there's going to be another massive
civilizational war between Muslims and Orthodox Christians.
The conflict between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, with
outside "meddling" from Russia, Serbia, Greece, Albania, and the EU,
is a microcosm of this coming massive civilizational war, which is why
this is an important story. And there have been reports of increasing
use of social media in the Balkans to promote neo-Nazism and white
supremacy.
There has been speculation by me and others about where WW III would
start -- South China Sea, Kashmir, Mideast, etc. But now I would have
to say that the Balkans is moving close to the top of the list.
EurActiv and Reuters (2-Mar) and Balkan Insight
Related Articles
[*] Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece (22-Aug-2015)
[*] A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant choke point (19-Aug-2015)
[*] 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Macedonia, Albania, Greece,
Talat Xhaferi, Social Democrats, SDSM, Zoran Zaev,
VMRO-DPMNE, Nikola Gruevski, Gjorge Ivanov, Bulgaria,
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM,
Alexander the Great, Russia, Turkey, Serbia,
Greater Albania, Greater Serbia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
- Macedonia comments reveal acrimonious divisions in the Western Balkans
****
**** European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
****
Protesters in front of parliament in Skopje, Macedonia, on Tuesday (Reuters)
Two weeks ago, thousands of ethnic nationalist Macedonians surrounded
Macedonia's parliament building in the capital city Skopje, and then
stormed the building, as we reported at the time.
More than 100 people were injured, including
protestors, policemen and lawmakers.
The protests have been continuing, although there's been no further
violence, but there are concerns of more violence when a political
deadline passes in ten days.
The protests were triggered when an ethnic Albanian, Talat Xhaferi,
was elected Speaker of the Parliament. Xhaferi was also a leader of
the Albanian anti-government rebellion in a brief Albanian-Macedonian
non-crisis civil war in 2001, raising new fears about a renewal of the
civil war.
Macedonia's politics became chaotic after December 11 of last year,
when an election was held giving the two major parties, the SDSM
(Social Democrats), led by Zoran Zaev, and the VMRO-DPMNE, led by
Nikola Gruevski, an almost equal number of seats in the parliament.
The SDSM party broke the deadlock by forming a coalition with several
Albanian parties, thus giving themselves a parliamentary majority,
controlling at least 67 of the 120 seats in parliament. However, the
VMRO party under Prime Minister Gruevski have been governing the
country for more than a decade, and were reluctant to give up power.
The situation was further complicated by the fact that if Gruevski
loses power, then he's liable to go to jail over accusations of
mass-wiretapping of opposition politicians. Two years ago, a
wiretapping scandal revealed that the government had tapped the phones
of over 26,000 people, including politicians, journalists, and civil
society activists.
Since December the government has been in chaos, since the
pro-Macedonian president, Gjorge Ivanov, refused to recognize the SDSM
government, and allow Zaev to become prime minister. He claimed that
doing so would "Albanianize" Macedonia by allowing wider official use
of the Albanian language, which was a demand of the Albanian parties
in return for joining the SDSM coalition.
So two weeks ago, the SDSM and Albanian coalition in the parliament
selected ethnic Albanian Talat Xhaferi as speaker of the parliament.
This selection infuriated Ivanov and the nationalist Macedonian
supporters of the VMRO party, triggering the bloody riots. The
protests have been continuing since then, with thousands of VMRO
supporters turning out in Skopje on Tuesday, although there has been
no more violence.
On Thursday, Xhaferi sent a letter to Ivanov, noting that a
"parliament majority has been established" and that he expects the
president to act according to the constitution, and give control of
the government to the SDSM, and allow Zoran Zaev to become prime
minister, putting an end to more than a decade in power for the VMRO.
Ivanov nas not yet confirmed that he received the letter. He has ten
days to respond to the letter. No matter what action or inaction he
takes on that day, there may be more violence. Balkan Insight and European Council On Foreign Relations and BBC
Related Articles
****
**** Macedonia comments reveal acrimonious divisions in the Western Balkans
****
The article on Macedonia that I wrote two weeks ago was cross-posted
as usual on the Breitbart National Security site, and received dozens of the
most acrimonious and vitriolic comments that any of my articles have
ever received. These comments came from all sides -- especially the
Macedonians, the Greeks, the Albanians and the Bulgarians.
Greek commenters were particularly infuriated by my brief history of
Alexander the Great, referring to him as "the most famous leader in
Macedonia's history." Here's a brief summary of the comments by Greek
readers:
- Alexander the Great was Greek, and in fact all Macedonians at
the time were Greek.
- Macedonians don't exist any more. The country was taken over by
Albanians, and colonized by ethnic Bulgarians in the Middle Ages.
Today's "Macedonians" are really ethnic Bulgarians, with no ties to
ancient Macedonia.
- Macedonia is a fake country. It should be split up, with the west
given to Albania and the east to Bulgaria.
Macedonians reject all of this:
- There are Russian and Turkish documents from the 1700s clearly
referring to Macedonian as distinct from Serbians or Bulgarians. The
oldest surviving identity in Europe is Macedonian.
- Macedonians don't want to be part of Bulgaria, and the Bulgarians
don't want the Macedonians, because they are Macedonians.
There's an interesting question here: How long do two population
groups have to be separated before they can be called separate ethnic
groups? It may (or may not) be true that Macedonians were Bulgarians
in the Middle Ages, but that was many centuries ago. Having been
apart from the Bulgarians for centuries, today they're recognized as a
distinct Macedonian ethnic group by almost every nation outside of
Greece, and they're recognized by the United Nations and European
Union as Macedonians.
As for Alexander the Great, today's Macedonians and Greeks each claim
him as their own. This is an issue that will probably never be
settled peacefully.
A number of Albanian commenters criticized my use of the phrase
"Greater Albania," a movement to enlarge Albania by including ethnic
Albanian populations from neighboring countries, including Macedonia
and Kosovo. Some claimed that no such movement exists, although that
claim appears not to be true, as can be determined by googling the
words "Greater Albania." However, other comments gave a more nuanced
explanation, that the phrase "Greater Albania" was invented by the
Serbs and the Russians to cover up a movement for a "Greater Serbia."
One commenter said, "We Albanian Muslims live in peace with Christian
Albanians. It's only the Serbs and Macedonians who we cannot live in
peace with us due to historical territorial claims."
There is some truth to the claim of meddling by the Russians. The
Russian government is backing the VMRO and Nikola Gruevski, and
Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement in March:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"With active cooperation of the EU and NATO officials,
> an 'Albanian platform' created in Tirana [Albania's capital city],
> in the office of the (Albanian) prime minister, is being imposed
> on Macedonians."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
My article on Macedonia
is turning
out to be one of the most acrimoniously contentious that I've ever
written, with extreme ideologues on both sides posting vitriolic
comments. My conclusion from this situation is that history is
repeating itself in the sense that the Balkans region is one of the
most explosive regions in the world.
The Albanians and Turks are mostly Muslim. The Macedonians,
Bulgarians, Serbs, Greeks and Russians are all mostly Orthodox
Christian. The Muslim and Orthodox Christian civilizations have had
repeated massive wars for centuries, centered in the Balkans, Crimea,
and the Caucasus. And as I've been saying for years, Generational
Dynamics predicts that there's going to be another massive
civilizational war between Muslims and Orthodox Christians.
The conflict between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, with
outside "meddling" from Russia, Serbia, Greece, Albania, and the EU,
is a microcosm of this coming massive civilizational war, which is why
this is an important story. And there have been reports of increasing
use of social media in the Balkans to promote neo-Nazism and white
supremacy.
There has been speculation by me and others about where WW III would
start -- South China Sea, Kashmir, Mideast, etc. But now I would have
to say that the Balkans is moving close to the top of the list.
EurActiv and Reuters (2-Mar) and Balkan Insight
Related Articles
[*] Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece (22-Aug-2015)
[*] A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant choke point (19-Aug-2015)
[*] 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Macedonia, Albania, Greece,
Talat Xhaferi, Social Democrats, SDSM, Zoran Zaev,
VMRO-DPMNE, Nikola Gruevski, Gjorge Ivanov, Bulgaria,
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM,
Alexander the Great, Russia, Turkey, Serbia,
Greater Albania, Greater Serbia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
