05-08-2017, 10:08 PM
*** 9-May-17 World View -- Russia, Iran and Turkey announce farcical new Syria peace plan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russia, Iran and Turkey announce farcical new Syria peace plan
****
![[Image: g170508b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170508b.jpg)
Two girls walk past destroyed buildings in Douma, Syria, part of a planned 'safe zone' (AFP)
Every few months, Russia or the United Nations announces a new peace
plan to end the war in Syria. Each time, the mainstream media
credulously reports that there's finally "hope" that the war will end.
Each time, I always use the word "farcical" to describe the peace
plan, because the plan never even makes sense. And each time, the
plan falls apart within a few weeks.
In January, just a mere four months ago, I described
the peace plan being signed at that time as
follows:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What's wrong with this picture: There's a civil war
> in Syria between the Shia/Alawites versus the Sunnis. On Tuesday,
> Russia, Iran and Turkey signed a peace agreement.
>
> The thing that's wrong with this picture is that nobody from Syria
> signed the agreement. It was an agreement among outsiders, and
> did not include any parties who are nominally the opponents in
> Syria's civil war.
>
> The peace talks were held in Astana, the capital city of
> Kazakhstan. Syrian civil war peace talks in the past were held in
> Geneva, so having these talks in Astana gives that "this time it's
> different" feeling to the meeting. ...
>
> However the main reason, according to analysts, that this time
> it's different is that Russia is making it clear that it's willing
> to enforce a peace in Syria, so that it will get the credit for
> bringing about peace."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Exactly the same description applies to the peace agreement signed on
Friday. The meetings were being held again in Astana, and the same
three (non-Syrian) parties signed the agreement, while the parties
that are fighting on the ground did not sign it.
In this peace agreement, there will be four "safe zones" or
"de-escalation areas." The safe zones will be surrounded by "security
zones," which will be patrolled to ensure the peace.
Here are some excerpts from the text of the agreement:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation
> and the Republic of Turkey as guarantors of the observance of the
> ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic (hereinafter referred
> to as “Guarantors”): ... have agreed on the following.
>
> 1.the following de-escalation areas shall be created with the aim
> to put a prompt end to violence, improve the humanitarian
> situation and create favorable conditions to advance political
> settlement of the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic: [listing
> areas in Idlib, Homs, Ghouta, southern Syria]. ...
>
> The creation of the de-escalation areas and security zones is a
> temporary measure, the duration of which will initially be 6
> months and will be automatically extended on the basis of
> consensus of the Guarantors.
>
> 2.Within the lines of the de-escalation areas:
>
> —hostilities between the conflicting parties (the government of
> the Syrian Arab Republic and the armed opposition groups that have
> joined and will join the ceasefire regime) with the use of any
> kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall be ceased; ...
>
> The functioning of the checkpoints and observation posts as well
> as the administration of the security zones shall be ensured by
> the forces of the Guarantors by consensus. Third parties might be
> deployed, if necessary, by consensus of the
> Guarantors. ...<END QUOTE>[/indent]
As usual, this is laughable. The Syrian regime and the armed rebels
have not signed on to this agreement, but hostilities between them
"with the use of any kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall
be ceased." You've got to be joking.
In fact, as in the case of every other "peace agreement," there is no
intention that the fighting stop. The Syrian regime of Bashar
al-Assad reserves the right to continue bombing any places that
contain people they consider to be terrorists, and that includes
schools, hospitals and marketplaces, using barrel bombs or any other
kind of bomb. The opposition rebel groups have also reserved the
right to fight the regime in case of what they view is any regime
violation of the agreement. And of course the al-Qaeda linked
al-Nusra Front, and so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) are not included in the deal in any way.
According to US Defense Secretary James Mattis:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It's all in process right now. Who is going to be
> ensuring they're safe? Who is signing up for it? Who is
> specifically to be kept out of them? All these details are to be
> worked out, and we're engaged."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to the text of the agreement, the maps of the four safe
zones have not yet been drawn up, and won't be drawn up until June.
Gulf News and The Hill and Arab News
Related Articles
****
**** Syria refuses to permit foreign monitors
****
The only significant difference between this and previous agreements
is that this agreement specifies that military forces will be deployed
to guarantee the security of the safe zones. The assumption is that
these will be international forces, since none of the parties doing
the fighting in Syria can be trusted.
So on Monday, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallem announced:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We do not accept a role for the United Nations or
> international forces to monitor the agreement. ...
>
> If any violation takes place, the Syrian army will be prepared to
> respond in a decisive manner."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So who's going to respond if the Syrian regime commits a violation?
Once again, this is completely laughable.
It's almost beyond belief how much destruction that Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad has caused. He drops barrel bombs laden with metal,
chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto civilian
neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He
considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated.
Tens of thousands of young jihadists came to Syria from 86 countries
around to world to fight al-Assad, creating ISIS. Al-Assad has driven
millions of Syrians out of their homes, into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey
and Europe.
So now we have this Russian proposal for four "safe zones" containing
all the Sunni men, women and children that al-Assad has been trying to
exterminate for the last six years. The Arab media is calling them
"prisons" or "concentration camps," because all of these Sunni groups
will be trapped in there, unable to leave. And who will be guarding
these safe zones? The Syrian army, led by Bashar al-Assad, who would
like to exterminate all their residents.
As I've said many times, there is no hope of this war ending, as long
as Bashar al-Assad is in power. AFP and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and SANA (Damascus) and Arab News
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Iran, Turkey,
Kazakhstan, safe zones, de-escalation zones, security zones,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
James Mattis, Walid Muallem, Bashar al-Assad
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russia, Iran and Turkey announce farcical new Syria peace plan
- Syria refuses to permit foreign monitors
****
**** Russia, Iran and Turkey announce farcical new Syria peace plan
****
Two girls walk past destroyed buildings in Douma, Syria, part of a planned 'safe zone' (AFP)
Every few months, Russia or the United Nations announces a new peace
plan to end the war in Syria. Each time, the mainstream media
credulously reports that there's finally "hope" that the war will end.
Each time, I always use the word "farcical" to describe the peace
plan, because the plan never even makes sense. And each time, the
plan falls apart within a few weeks.
In January, just a mere four months ago, I described
the peace plan being signed at that time as
follows:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"What's wrong with this picture: There's a civil war
> in Syria between the Shia/Alawites versus the Sunnis. On Tuesday,
> Russia, Iran and Turkey signed a peace agreement.
>
> The thing that's wrong with this picture is that nobody from Syria
> signed the agreement. It was an agreement among outsiders, and
> did not include any parties who are nominally the opponents in
> Syria's civil war.
>
> The peace talks were held in Astana, the capital city of
> Kazakhstan. Syrian civil war peace talks in the past were held in
> Geneva, so having these talks in Astana gives that "this time it's
> different" feeling to the meeting. ...
>
> However the main reason, according to analysts, that this time
> it's different is that Russia is making it clear that it's willing
> to enforce a peace in Syria, so that it will get the credit for
> bringing about peace."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Exactly the same description applies to the peace agreement signed on
Friday. The meetings were being held again in Astana, and the same
three (non-Syrian) parties signed the agreement, while the parties
that are fighting on the ground did not sign it.
In this peace agreement, there will be four "safe zones" or
"de-escalation areas." The safe zones will be surrounded by "security
zones," which will be patrolled to ensure the peace.
Here are some excerpts from the text of the agreement:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation
> and the Republic of Turkey as guarantors of the observance of the
> ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic (hereinafter referred
> to as “Guarantors”): ... have agreed on the following.
>
> 1.the following de-escalation areas shall be created with the aim
> to put a prompt end to violence, improve the humanitarian
> situation and create favorable conditions to advance political
> settlement of the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic: [listing
> areas in Idlib, Homs, Ghouta, southern Syria]. ...
>
> The creation of the de-escalation areas and security zones is a
> temporary measure, the duration of which will initially be 6
> months and will be automatically extended on the basis of
> consensus of the Guarantors.
>
> 2.Within the lines of the de-escalation areas:
>
> —hostilities between the conflicting parties (the government of
> the Syrian Arab Republic and the armed opposition groups that have
> joined and will join the ceasefire regime) with the use of any
> kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall be ceased; ...
>
> The functioning of the checkpoints and observation posts as well
> as the administration of the security zones shall be ensured by
> the forces of the Guarantors by consensus. Third parties might be
> deployed, if necessary, by consensus of the
> Guarantors. ...<END QUOTE>[/indent]
As usual, this is laughable. The Syrian regime and the armed rebels
have not signed on to this agreement, but hostilities between them
"with the use of any kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall
be ceased." You've got to be joking.
In fact, as in the case of every other "peace agreement," there is no
intention that the fighting stop. The Syrian regime of Bashar
al-Assad reserves the right to continue bombing any places that
contain people they consider to be terrorists, and that includes
schools, hospitals and marketplaces, using barrel bombs or any other
kind of bomb. The opposition rebel groups have also reserved the
right to fight the regime in case of what they view is any regime
violation of the agreement. And of course the al-Qaeda linked
al-Nusra Front, and so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) are not included in the deal in any way.
According to US Defense Secretary James Mattis:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It's all in process right now. Who is going to be
> ensuring they're safe? Who is signing up for it? Who is
> specifically to be kept out of them? All these details are to be
> worked out, and we're engaged."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to the text of the agreement, the maps of the four safe
zones have not yet been drawn up, and won't be drawn up until June.
Gulf News and The Hill and Arab News
Related Articles
- Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement (25-Jan-2017)
- Turkey plans assault on Syria's Kurds, as US-Russia announce another peace deal (10-Sep-2016)
- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
****
**** Syria refuses to permit foreign monitors
****
The only significant difference between this and previous agreements
is that this agreement specifies that military forces will be deployed
to guarantee the security of the safe zones. The assumption is that
these will be international forces, since none of the parties doing
the fighting in Syria can be trusted.
So on Monday, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallem announced:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We do not accept a role for the United Nations or
> international forces to monitor the agreement. ...
>
> If any violation takes place, the Syrian army will be prepared to
> respond in a decisive manner."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
So who's going to respond if the Syrian regime commits a violation?
Once again, this is completely laughable.
It's almost beyond belief how much destruction that Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad has caused. He drops barrel bombs laden with metal,
chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto civilian
neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He
considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated.
Tens of thousands of young jihadists came to Syria from 86 countries
around to world to fight al-Assad, creating ISIS. Al-Assad has driven
millions of Syrians out of their homes, into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey
and Europe.
So now we have this Russian proposal for four "safe zones" containing
all the Sunni men, women and children that al-Assad has been trying to
exterminate for the last six years. The Arab media is calling them
"prisons" or "concentration camps," because all of these Sunni groups
will be trapped in there, unable to leave. And who will be guarding
these safe zones? The Syrian army, led by Bashar al-Assad, who would
like to exterminate all their residents.
As I've said many times, there is no hope of this war ending, as long
as Bashar al-Assad is in power. AFP and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and SANA (Damascus) and Arab News
Related Articles
- Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad (08-Feb-2017)
- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
- Syria's air force deliberately targets hospital in Aleppo, killing dozens (29-Apr-2016)
- From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Iran, Turkey,
Kazakhstan, safe zones, de-escalation zones, security zones,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
James Mattis, Walid Muallem, Bashar al-Assad
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
