06-05-2017, 09:46 PM
*** 6-Jun-17 World View -- Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis
****
![[Image: g170605b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170605b.jpg)
Doha, Qatar, skyline
As I reported two weeks ago, years of bitter relations between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar came out in the open when Trump's Mideast visit triggered a sharp split
between the
two supposed allies.
On Monday, the split widened much further, with hostile words
being replaced by hostile actions. Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic
relations with Qatar, closed the land border between the two
countries, and closed Saudi airspace to any airline flights
to or from Qatar.
Other Arab nations immediately followed suit. Bahrain, Egypt, and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) also broke relations with Qatar and imposed
similar economic sanctions. The countries all ordered their citizens
out of Qatar and gave Qataris abroad 14 days to return home. The
island nation of Maldives announced later Monday that it, too, would
cut ties to Qatar.
If the diplomatic conflict continues, the economic impact on Qatar is
expected to be enormous. Qatar has only one land border, the one with
Saudi Arabia, and 99% of all Qatar's food, as well as other supplies,
come through that border. The announcement immediately triggered a
panic in Qatar, with people in supermarkets buying up all available
food, in anticipation of food shortages and high inflation. It's
estimated that Qatar has only three days' worth of food supply on hand
in the country.
Some analysts are predicting that Qatar will have to give in to Saudi
Arabia's demands to end the crisis. Other analysts believe that the
split may destabilize Qatar's government, making a coup likely.
However, other countries in the region, including Kuwait, Oman and
Turkey, are calling for restraint, and are offering to mediate to
resolve the dispute. AP and Al-Jazeera and Washington Post and Bloomberg
Related Articles
****
**** Arab nations' split caused by Qatar's relations with Muslim Brotherhood and Iran
****
As I described in my lengthy analysis
two weeks ago, the same countries recalled their
ambassadors from Qatar in March of 2014, although diplomatic relations
were restored later that year. At that time there was an extremely
bitter split among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),
which is an organization of Arab nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) on the Arabian
Gulf. The reasons for the split then are the same as the reasons for
the split now: Qatar's relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and with
Iran.
Although Qatar cannot be considered an ally of Iran, there are reasons
why Qatar wants to have good relations with Iran. One reason is that
there over a million Hindu migrants working in Qatar, and Hindus have
historically had good relations with Shia Muslims. Another reason is
that Qatar and Iran share the biggest natural gas field in the world,
making Qatar the world's top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, and
with Iran expanding its own LNG exports with the western sanctions
removed.
These reasons do not make Qatar and Iran allies, but they do mean that
Qatar has to get along with Iran, at a time when the relations between
Iran and Saudi Arabia are becoming increasingly vitriolic.
Qatar's relations with the Muslim Brotherhood have also contributed to
split. There are two competing schools of conservative Sunni
Muslim ideology. Extreme versions of either of these competing
ideologies are used to justify Sunni terror acts.
One is the Salafist Wahhabi ideology, which has its roots in Saudi
Arabia, and is the official Saudi religion. The other is the Muslim
Brotherhood ideology, which has its roots in Egypt, and is strongly
supported by Qatar and Turkey. Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim
Brotherhood, so Qatar supports Hamas as well.
Although the two ideologies have succeeded in coexisting for decades,
they've been growing apart, and the differences are now coming to a
head. The differences have been exacerbated by a number of events,
including the 2013 Egypt government coup that removed the Muslim
Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi, the 2014 Gaza war between
Israel and Hamas, and civil war in Syria.
European and American governments have been pressuring the Saudi
government to do something to stop terrorism by al-Qaeda linked groups
or by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
According to some analysts, the reason for the split between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar is that the Saudis are using Qatar as a scapegoat in
response to that pressure.
However, now that the split has occurred, it seems likely that the
pressure will go in the opposite direction. Doha, Qatar's capital
city, is a major airline hub, and the Saudi sanctions have thrown
airline schedules in the entire region into chaos. There are 200,000
Egyptian workers in Qatar, and they will have to be withdrawn within
two weeks, causing further chaos around the region. The economic
sanctions on Qatar are going to affect the economies of the entire
region. And the split is going to push Qatar closer to Iran.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. With appropriate generational research and analysis, the split
between the Wahhabis and the Muslim Brotherhood can be used to
determine which ethnic groups will be fighting each other. I
certainly don't have anything like the resources to perform such an
analysis by myself, but any college student interested in this kind of
analysis could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's
going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a
generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast.
Al Arabiya and AP and BBC and Israel National News (13-May-2014)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain,
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Turkey, Mohammed Morsi, Egypt,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Gaza, Hamas, Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis
- Arab nations' split caused by Qatar's relations with Muslim Brotherhood and Iran
****
**** Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis
****
Doha, Qatar, skyline
As I reported two weeks ago, years of bitter relations between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar came out in the open when Trump's Mideast visit triggered a sharp split
between the
two supposed allies.
On Monday, the split widened much further, with hostile words
being replaced by hostile actions. Saudi Arabia broke diplomatic
relations with Qatar, closed the land border between the two
countries, and closed Saudi airspace to any airline flights
to or from Qatar.
Other Arab nations immediately followed suit. Bahrain, Egypt, and the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) also broke relations with Qatar and imposed
similar economic sanctions. The countries all ordered their citizens
out of Qatar and gave Qataris abroad 14 days to return home. The
island nation of Maldives announced later Monday that it, too, would
cut ties to Qatar.
If the diplomatic conflict continues, the economic impact on Qatar is
expected to be enormous. Qatar has only one land border, the one with
Saudi Arabia, and 99% of all Qatar's food, as well as other supplies,
come through that border. The announcement immediately triggered a
panic in Qatar, with people in supermarkets buying up all available
food, in anticipation of food shortages and high inflation. It's
estimated that Qatar has only three days' worth of food supply on hand
in the country.
Some analysts are predicting that Qatar will have to give in to Saudi
Arabia's demands to end the crisis. Other analysts believe that the
split may destabilize Qatar's government, making a coup likely.
However, other countries in the region, including Kuwait, Oman and
Turkey, are calling for restraint, and are offering to mediate to
resolve the dispute. AP and Al-Jazeera and Washington Post and Bloomberg
Related Articles
- Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar (26-May-2017)
- Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi declared President of Egypt (25-Jun-2012)
- Turkey's Erdogan gives four-finger 'R4BIA' salute, in signal to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (18-Jul-2016)
****
**** Arab nations' split caused by Qatar's relations with Muslim Brotherhood and Iran
****
As I described in my lengthy analysis
two weeks ago, the same countries recalled their
ambassadors from Qatar in March of 2014, although diplomatic relations
were restored later that year. At that time there was an extremely
bitter split among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),
which is an organization of Arab nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)) on the Arabian
Gulf. The reasons for the split then are the same as the reasons for
the split now: Qatar's relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and with
Iran.
Although Qatar cannot be considered an ally of Iran, there are reasons
why Qatar wants to have good relations with Iran. One reason is that
there over a million Hindu migrants working in Qatar, and Hindus have
historically had good relations with Shia Muslims. Another reason is
that Qatar and Iran share the biggest natural gas field in the world,
making Qatar the world's top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, and
with Iran expanding its own LNG exports with the western sanctions
removed.
These reasons do not make Qatar and Iran allies, but they do mean that
Qatar has to get along with Iran, at a time when the relations between
Iran and Saudi Arabia are becoming increasingly vitriolic.
Qatar's relations with the Muslim Brotherhood have also contributed to
split. There are two competing schools of conservative Sunni
Muslim ideology. Extreme versions of either of these competing
ideologies are used to justify Sunni terror acts.
One is the Salafist Wahhabi ideology, which has its roots in Saudi
Arabia, and is the official Saudi religion. The other is the Muslim
Brotherhood ideology, which has its roots in Egypt, and is strongly
supported by Qatar and Turkey. Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim
Brotherhood, so Qatar supports Hamas as well.
Although the two ideologies have succeeded in coexisting for decades,
they've been growing apart, and the differences are now coming to a
head. The differences have been exacerbated by a number of events,
including the 2013 Egypt government coup that removed the Muslim
Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi, the 2014 Gaza war between
Israel and Hamas, and civil war in Syria.
European and American governments have been pressuring the Saudi
government to do something to stop terrorism by al-Qaeda linked groups
or by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
According to some analysts, the reason for the split between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar is that the Saudis are using Qatar as a scapegoat in
response to that pressure.
However, now that the split has occurred, it seems likely that the
pressure will go in the opposite direction. Doha, Qatar's capital
city, is a major airline hub, and the Saudi sanctions have thrown
airline schedules in the entire region into chaos. There are 200,000
Egyptian workers in Qatar, and they will have to be withdrawn within
two weeks, causing further chaos around the region. The economic
sanctions on Qatar are going to affect the economies of the entire
region. And the split is going to push Qatar closer to Iran.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. With appropriate generational research and analysis, the split
between the Wahhabis and the Muslim Brotherhood can be used to
determine which ethnic groups will be fighting each other. I
certainly don't have anything like the resources to perform such an
analysis by myself, but any college student interested in this kind of
analysis could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's
going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a
generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast.
Al Arabiya and AP and BBC and Israel National News (13-May-2014)
Related Articles
- Gulf Arab states have major split over Egypt and Iran (06-Mar-2014)
- Arab League holds annual meeting among bitter splits (26-Mar-2014)
- Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war (03-Sep-2014)
- Gulf nations paper over their differences for GCC Summit in December (21-Nov-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain,
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Muslim Brotherhood, Hezbollah, Turkey, Mohammed Morsi, Egypt,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Gaza, Hamas, Syria
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
