Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Generational Dynamics World View
*** 13-Jun-17 World View -- Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon
  • Differences between Qatar and Saudi Arabia run deep and will worsen

****
**** Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon
****


[Image: g170612b.jpg]
Panic buying of groceries in Doha supermarket last week (Doha News)

Three weeks ago, President Donald Trump's harsh condemnation of Iran
triggered a renewal of the years of vitriolic anger between Saudi
Arabia and Qatar. A week ago, the anger turned into actions with
Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries cutting ties and imposing a
harsh economic blockade on Qatar. Today, positions appear to be
hardening, and it seems very unlikely that the situation will be
resolved soon.

Numerous countries have called for an end to the economic blockade.
Trade is being affected in a number of countries. Qatar Airways has
been blocked from using Saudi and UAE airspace, throwing airline
schedules in the region into confusion. Britain, Germany, Turkey,
Russia, Kuwait, Oman and others have encouraged diplomatic talks or
offered to mediate. The United States administration called for Saudi
Arabia to soften the blockade on humanitarian grounds, at the same
time it called for Qatar to end funding of terrorist organizations.

Qatar's foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani was
defiant, saying that Qatar is willing to negotiate an end to the
impasse, but that no one can dictate its foreign policy, and that "no
one has the right" to pressure Qatar to silence TV network al-Jazeera,
which is based in Qatar's capital city Doha.

Since the split, additional Arab countries have joined the blockade
against Qatar. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and
Egypt have cut relations with Qatar on the first day. Yemen,
Mauritania, the Maldives and the Comoros Islands followed. Chad,
Djibouti, Jordan and Niger downgraded relations without joining the
blockade. Many of these countries receive financial aid from Saudi
Arabia, and it's believed that they cut relations under financial
pressure.

On the other hand, Eritrea on Friday refused to cut diplomatic ties
with Qatar. It issued a statement saying that it had "strong ties
with the brother people of Qatar," and it was "impossible to cut
ties."

Iran has sent five cargo planes to Qatar, each carrying 90 tonnes of
cargo, mostly fruit and vegetables. Three ships containing 350 tonnes
of food items are also being sent to Qatar. Bloomberg and Anadolu and Deutsche Welle

Related Articles

****
**** Differences between Qatar and Saudi Arabia run deep and will worsen
****


When al-Thani said, as quoted above, that Qatar was willing to
negotiate, but that no one could dictate its foreign policy, and no
one could pressure al-Jazeera, he was saying that Qatar would not
negotiate on two major causes of the split.

Not dictating its foreign policy meant that Saudi Arabia could not
tell Qatar how to handle its relations with Iran. While Saudi Arabia
and Iran can never have been classified as friendly allies, at least
they were able to tolerate each other for decades until recently.

However, in January 2016, the entire Shia world was shocked that Saudi
Arabia executed well-known Shia cleric Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr
on charges of terrorism, at the
same time that they executed 46 alleged Sunni terrorists. They were
furious that he was executed at all, and also that it implied that
Shia terrorists were no different from Sunni terrorists.

In Tehran, protesters stormed the Saudi embassy, and burned it to the
ground. There were violent Shia protests across the Mideast. As
violent Shia protests spread, Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Iran.

Relations between Saudi and Iran have gotten even more vitriolic since
then, and the Saudis have adopted the attitude toward Qatar that
"you're either with us or against us," meaning that the Saudis will
not tolerate Qatar having friendly relations with Iran. So when
al-Thani says that no one could dictate Qatar's foreign policy, he was
rejecting any compromise on its relations with Iran.

Al-Jazeera is the powerful news network that supposedly presents an
Arab view around the world. I've always watched al-Jazeera when I
can, because it provides information and a point of view completely
unavailable in the western media. People tell me that al-Jazeera is
biased, and that's true, but they're no more biased than the NY Times
or NBC News. Generational Dynamics analyses require that all points
of view be incorporated, so al-Jazeera provides an important function
a biased point of view from the Arab world.

As I've mentioned several times in the past, one form of al-Jazeera
bias has always seemed surprising. Listening to al-Jazeera, it's
clear that they hate Israel. But that's not surprising. One would
expect al-Jazeera to hate Israel. But what I found surprising is that
al-Jazeera also hates the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas. In
fact, al-Jazeera seems to hate the Palestinian Authority more than it
hates Israel. On the other hand, al-Jazeera loves Hamas, and has
never referred to them as terrorists that I can recall.

So that bias toward Hamas tells a great deal about why Saudi Arabia
hates al-Jazeera, which reflects the foreign policy of Qatar. Hamas
is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a conservative
Sunni Muslim ideology which is in competition with Saudi Arabia's
Salafist Wahhabi conservative Sunni Muslim ideology. Just as Saudi
Arabia and Iran have tolerated each other for decades and gotten along
until recently, the Muslim Brotherhood and Wahhabi ideologies have
tolerated each and gotten along until recently.

But now, Qatar's support for the Muslim Brotherhood ideology is
becoming intolerable to Saudi Arabia, just like Qatar's friendly
relationship with Iran. This is the kind of thing that typically
occurs in a generational Crisis era.

Last week, Germany foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel warned this new
crisis could lead to war, and that "a deep dispute between neighbors
is the last thing that is needed" in the Mideast.

Whether Gabriel likes it or not, a "deep dispute" is what it is, and
it's going to get worse.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. With appropriate generational research and analysis, the split
between the Wahhabis and the Muslim Brotherhood can be used to
determine which ethnic groups will be fighting each other. I
certainly don't have anything like the resources to perform such an
analysis by myself, but any college student interested in this kind of
analysis could make an invaluable contribution to understanding what's
going on in the world today by taking on, as a thesis topic, a
generational analysis of the tribes and ethnic groups in the Mideast.
AP and Deutsche Welle (7-June) and Gulf News (10-June) and AP

Related Articles

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Qatar Airways,
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani,
Britain, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Kuwait, Oman,
Yemen, Mauritania, Maldives, Comoros Islands,
Chad, Djibouti, Jordan, Niger, Iran, Mohammad Baqir Nimr al-Nimr,
al-Jazeera, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas,
Muslim Brotherhood, Salafist Wahhabi, Sigmar Gabriel

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
13-Jun-17 World View -- Qatar-Arab crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon - by John J. Xenakis - 06-12-2017, 09:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong Ldr 5 4,798 06-05-2020, 10:55 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes Ldr 2 3,386 03-16-2020, 06:17 AM
Last Post: Ldr
  The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters Mark40 5 4,659 01-08-2020, 08:37 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Generational cycle research Mikebert 15 16,217 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
Video Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. Kinser79 0 3,322 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
Last Post: Kinser79

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 5 Guest(s)