06-13-2017, 10:02 PM
*** 14-Jun-17 World View -- In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China
****
![[Image: g170613b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170613b.jpg)
Panama's vice president Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado meets China's vice president Li Yuanchao in Beijing on Tuesday (Xinhua)
China scored a new diplomatic victory over Taiwan on Tuesday, when
Panama broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan and began diplomatic
relations with China. China will not have diplomatic relations with
any country that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and China uses
its immense economic pressure to get its way.
A joint statement from China and Panama said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Government of the Republic of Panama recognizes
> that only one China exists in the world, the Government of the
> People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government that
> represents all China, and Taiwan forms an inalienable part of
> Chinese territory."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This is a complete victory by China over Taiwan. Taiwanese officials
were infuriated by what they saw as Panama's betrayal. Taiwan and
Panama have had 105 years of diplomatic relations. In 2014, Taiwan's
then-president Ma Ying-jeou visited Panama, and was assured by
Panama's president Juan Carlos Varela that maintaining diplomatic
relations with Taiwan is most beneficial to Panama, even though the
trade volume between China and Panama was 22 times that between Taiwan
and Panama.
In June of last year, Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen visited
Panama and Paraguay. Varela's wife, Panama's first lady Lorena
Castillo de Varela, answering a question about whether Panama would
break relations with Taiwan, said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Absolutely not. Our relationship with Taiwan has to
> be respected. First of all, when you have the trust and
> friendship, we value it very much. This is something that has been
> built for many, many years and you take care of that and you
> appreciate it and you keep it. Panama and Taiwan are like brothers
> and sisters."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Well, apparently Varela and his wife didn't appreciate it very much,
in view of Tuesday's announcement. Shanghai Daily and China Post (Taiwan, 7-Oct-2014) and Latin American Herald Tribune and Formosa TV (22-May-2016)
Related Articles
****
**** Taiwan's harsh response signals increasing tension with China
****
Something that I've been reporting on for over a decade is that China
is losing a battle with time over reuniting Taiwan with China. In
2005, it was already clear from polls on the question "Do you feel
Taiwanese, Chinese or both" that over a period of years, the number of
people answering "Taiwanese" was increasing. The polls also show that
it's the older people who feel "Chinese," and the younger people who
feel "Taiwanese." This is a typical generational situation, where
older generations who survived the last generational crisis war (Mao's
Communist Revolution, 1934-49) were willing to compromise to prevent a
new war, while the younger generations, with no personal memory of the
war, are not willing to compromise.
![[Image: taigraph.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/taigraph.gif)
From 2005: Taiwan poll results to question: 'Do you feel Taiwanese, Chinese or both?' (WSJ)
A poll conducted in June of last year showed overwhelming support for independence from China.
Unification was favored by only 18.4%, with 66.4% opposed. In the
20-29 age group, 72% supported independence.
The surge in support for independence resulted in an overwhelming and historic victory in the presidential election
for Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the Taiwan's
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in January 2016.
Since Tsai has taken office, relations between China and Taiwan have
been increasingly hostile.
So after Tuesday's announcement that Panama breaking relations with
Taiwan, Tsai was defiant:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Taiwan is committed to preserving Cross-Strait peace,
> but China's move has impacted the status quo. We will not sit idle
> when our national interests are threatened. ...
>
> Coercion and threats will not bring the two sides
> together. Instead they will drive our two peoples apart. On
> behalf of the 23 million people of Taiwan, I declare that we will
> never surrender to such intimidation. ...
>
> Although we have lost a diplomatic ally, our refusal to engage in
> a diplomatic bidding war will not change. Our approach of not
> competing with Beijing’s ‘checkbook diplomacy’ will not change ...
>
> We are a sovereign country. This sovereignty cannot be challenged
> nor traded. China has continued to manipulate the ‘one China'
> principle and pressure Taiwan's international space, threatening
> the rights of the Taiwanese people, but it remains undeniable that
> the Republic of China [Taiwan] is a sovereign country. This is a
> fact China will never be able to deny. ... We won't allow our
> sovereignty to be challenged or be exchanged for
> anything."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Now, this speech by Taiwan's current president brings us to China's
"anti-secession law." This law, passed in 2005, requires China to
invade Taiwan if Taiwan makes any move toward independence, whether by
word or by deed.
So Tsai Ing-wen has refused to endorse the "One-China policy," also
called the "1992 Consensus," which states that there is only one
China, and leaves some ambiguity as to what that means. With Tsai
rejecting the One-China Policy, and now stating that "We won't allow
our sovereignty to be challenged or be exchanged for anything," it is
arguably the case that Taiwan has already taken steps to trigger the
anti-secession law.
Chinese officials must know that time is not on their side. They can
also read the polls that say that as time goes on, more and more
Taiwanese favor independence, and fewer and fewer Taiwanese favor
unification. A war between China and Taiwan is 100% certain, and it
will be at a time of China's choosing. Taipei Times and Washington Free Beacon and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
Related Articles
****
**** China expected to continue increasing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan
****
At some point, China will decide to take military action, as required
by the anti-secession law. Until that time, China is expected to
continue taking measures to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, even though
such measures are counter-productive, in that they infuriate the
Taiwanese people and increase the support for independence.
With the defection of Panama, there are only 20 countries left
in the world that diplomatically recognize Taiwan:
Completely apart from the diplomatic issues, China's closer relations
with Panama are an economic coup. China is the heaviest user of the
Panama Canal, and China has invested heavily in Panama's largest port,
Margarita Island, and is developing 1,200 hectares of land around the
canal.
China is expected to target the 20 other countries, one by one. China
has invested heavily in Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, and they
may following Panama soon. Jorge Guajardo, Mexico's former ambassador
to China, tweeted: “Big question is, will Vatican ditch Taiwan for
Beijing?” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Washington Post and Reuters and Foreign Policy
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Li Yuanchao, Panama, Juan Carlos Varela,
Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado, Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou,
Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
One-China policy, 1992 Consensus, Anti-secession law,
Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jorge Guajardo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China
- Taiwan's harsh response signals increasing tension with China
- China expected to continue increasing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan
****
**** In a major victory for China, Panama switches allegiance from Taiwan to China
****
Panama's vice president Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado meets China's vice president Li Yuanchao in Beijing on Tuesday (Xinhua)
China scored a new diplomatic victory over Taiwan on Tuesday, when
Panama broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan and began diplomatic
relations with China. China will not have diplomatic relations with
any country that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and China uses
its immense economic pressure to get its way.
A joint statement from China and Panama said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Government of the Republic of Panama recognizes
> that only one China exists in the world, the Government of the
> People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government that
> represents all China, and Taiwan forms an inalienable part of
> Chinese territory."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
This is a complete victory by China over Taiwan. Taiwanese officials
were infuriated by what they saw as Panama's betrayal. Taiwan and
Panama have had 105 years of diplomatic relations. In 2014, Taiwan's
then-president Ma Ying-jeou visited Panama, and was assured by
Panama's president Juan Carlos Varela that maintaining diplomatic
relations with Taiwan is most beneficial to Panama, even though the
trade volume between China and Panama was 22 times that between Taiwan
and Panama.
In June of last year, Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen visited
Panama and Paraguay. Varela's wife, Panama's first lady Lorena
Castillo de Varela, answering a question about whether Panama would
break relations with Taiwan, said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Absolutely not. Our relationship with Taiwan has to
> be respected. First of all, when you have the trust and
> friendship, we value it very much. This is something that has been
> built for many, many years and you take care of that and you
> appreciate it and you keep it. Panama and Taiwan are like brothers
> and sisters."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Well, apparently Varela and his wife didn't appreciate it very much,
in view of Tuesday's announcement. Shanghai Daily and China Post (Taiwan, 7-Oct-2014) and Latin American Herald Tribune and Formosa TV (22-May-2016)
Related Articles
- Following the money, Sao Tome and Principe switches allegiance from Taiwan to China (28-Dec-2016)
- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
- No war erupted from Trump's ten minute phone call with Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen (05-Dec-2016)
- How a world war with China would unfold (21-Feb-2014)
****
**** Taiwan's harsh response signals increasing tension with China
****
Something that I've been reporting on for over a decade is that China
is losing a battle with time over reuniting Taiwan with China. In
2005, it was already clear from polls on the question "Do you feel
Taiwanese, Chinese or both" that over a period of years, the number of
people answering "Taiwanese" was increasing. The polls also show that
it's the older people who feel "Chinese," and the younger people who
feel "Taiwanese." This is a typical generational situation, where
older generations who survived the last generational crisis war (Mao's
Communist Revolution, 1934-49) were willing to compromise to prevent a
new war, while the younger generations, with no personal memory of the
war, are not willing to compromise.
From 2005: Taiwan poll results to question: 'Do you feel Taiwanese, Chinese or both?' (WSJ)
A poll conducted in June of last year showed overwhelming support for independence from China.
Unification was favored by only 18.4%, with 66.4% opposed. In the
20-29 age group, 72% supported independence.
The surge in support for independence resulted in an overwhelming and historic victory in the presidential election
for Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the Taiwan's
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in January 2016.
Since Tsai has taken office, relations between China and Taiwan have
been increasingly hostile.
So after Tuesday's announcement that Panama breaking relations with
Taiwan, Tsai was defiant:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Taiwan is committed to preserving Cross-Strait peace,
> but China's move has impacted the status quo. We will not sit idle
> when our national interests are threatened. ...
>
> Coercion and threats will not bring the two sides
> together. Instead they will drive our two peoples apart. On
> behalf of the 23 million people of Taiwan, I declare that we will
> never surrender to such intimidation. ...
>
> Although we have lost a diplomatic ally, our refusal to engage in
> a diplomatic bidding war will not change. Our approach of not
> competing with Beijing’s ‘checkbook diplomacy’ will not change ...
>
> We are a sovereign country. This sovereignty cannot be challenged
> nor traded. China has continued to manipulate the ‘one China'
> principle and pressure Taiwan's international space, threatening
> the rights of the Taiwanese people, but it remains undeniable that
> the Republic of China [Taiwan] is a sovereign country. This is a
> fact China will never be able to deny. ... We won't allow our
> sovereignty to be challenged or be exchanged for
> anything."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Now, this speech by Taiwan's current president brings us to China's
"anti-secession law." This law, passed in 2005, requires China to
invade Taiwan if Taiwan makes any move toward independence, whether by
word or by deed.
So Tsai Ing-wen has refused to endorse the "One-China policy," also
called the "1992 Consensus," which states that there is only one
China, and leaves some ambiguity as to what that means. With Tsai
rejecting the One-China Policy, and now stating that "We won't allow
our sovereignty to be challenged or be exchanged for anything," it is
arguably the case that Taiwan has already taken steps to trigger the
anti-secession law.
Chinese officials must know that time is not on their side. They can
also read the polls that say that as time goes on, more and more
Taiwanese favor independence, and fewer and fewer Taiwanese favor
unification. A war between China and Taiwan is 100% certain, and it
will be at a time of China's choosing. Taipei Times and Washington Free Beacon and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
Related Articles
- New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China (02-Jun-2016)
- Taiwan says it must defend against increasingly threatening China (18-Mar-2017)
- China's 'sacred responsibility' is to stop Taiwan independence by force (28-Dec-2004)
- Anti-secession law provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
****
**** China expected to continue increasing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan
****
At some point, China will decide to take military action, as required
by the anti-secession law. Until that time, China is expected to
continue taking measures to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, even though
such measures are counter-productive, in that they infuriate the
Taiwanese people and increase the support for independence.
With the defection of Panama, there are only 20 countries left
in the world that diplomatically recognize Taiwan:
- Asia-Pacific: Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau,
Solomon Islands, Tuvalu
- Africa: Burkina Faso, Swaziland
- Europe: Vatican City
- Latin American: Belize, Dominican Republic, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, St Kitts and Nevis,
Saint Lucia, St Vincent & the Grenadines
Completely apart from the diplomatic issues, China's closer relations
with Panama are an economic coup. China is the heaviest user of the
Panama Canal, and China has invested heavily in Panama's largest port,
Margarita Island, and is developing 1,200 hectares of land around the
canal.
China is expected to target the 20 other countries, one by one. China
has invested heavily in Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, and they
may following Panama soon. Jorge Guajardo, Mexico's former ambassador
to China, tweeted: “Big question is, will Vatican ditch Taiwan for
Beijing?” South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Washington Post and Reuters and Foreign Policy
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Li Yuanchao, Panama, Juan Carlos Varela,
Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado, Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou,
Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
One-China policy, 1992 Consensus, Anti-secession law,
Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jorge Guajardo
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
