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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 21-Jun-17 World View -- Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • DRC's president Kabila refusal to step down threatens African stability
  • Catholic Church report documents massive government atrocities in DRC's Kasai region
  • Brief generational history of DRC's Kasai region

****
**** DRC's president Kabila refusal to step down threatens African stability
****


[Image: g170620b.jpg]
Ethnic clashes in Kasai province in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (AP)

Earlier this month, the US and the European Union imposed sanctions on
high-level officials in the government of president Joseph Kabila of
the Democratic Republic (DRC), in reaction to numerous atrocities and
war crimes committed by Kabila's government.

Besides war crimes, one of the reasons for the sanctions is that
Kabila, who has been in power since 2001, is refusing to step down,
despite the fact that his latest term in office expired in December of
last year.

Kabila pulled a mind-boggling stunt. He claims that he can't step
down because there haven't been any elections to select a president to
replace him. There were supposed to be elections in November but they
weren't held, because Kabila had done everything in his power to make
it impossible to hold elections.

In December there was a threat of civil war in DRC, but the Catholic
Church intervened and brokered an agreement: Elections would be held
in December of 2017 to choose Kabila's successor, and this time Kabila
would really step down. However, the agreement was a farce: It was
signed by members of Kabila's government, but it wasn't even signed by
Kabila himself.

It's now June 2017, and it's pretty clear that Kabila has no intention
of stepping down this. In fact, he's denying that there's any
agreement at all:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I promised nothing at all, I want to organize
> elections as quickly as possible ... We want perfect elections,
> not just elections."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Of course he's right that he promised nothing at all: He never signed
the farcical agreement brokered by the Catholic Church.

And no he's saying that it will cost $1.8 billion to hold the election
this year, but that money can't be spared (presumably because he has
to pay his army to massacre people in the opposition). So now he says
that maybe there will be elections sometime in 2018.

Presumably he'd like the West to give him $1.8 billion to hold
elections, but the norm in Africa is for leaders to take aid money and
use it to build a mansion for themselves, put it into the leader's
Swiss bank account, or, most likely in this case, use the money to
kill more people in the ethnic tribes he hates. Despite untold
billions of dollars given in aid to African countries for decades, the
African people are still in the same level of poverty as they were
decades ago, since these leaders make sure that the aid money is never
actually used for aid.

Kofi Annan, the anti-American former Secretary-General of the United
Nations issued a statement, signed by other former African national
leaders, is warning that Kabila's actions are destabilizing the
region, and possibly all of Africa:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"As African leaders committed to democracy, we are
> deeply concerned about the political situation in the Democratic
> Republic of Congo (DRC), which represents a threat to the
> stability, prosperity and peace of the Great Lakes region, and
> indeed for Africa as a whole.
>
> We feel obliged to sound the alarm before it is too late.
>
> The failure to organize elections in late 2016, in conformity with
> the constitution of the DRC, has created an acute political
> crisis.
>
> The agreement between the Government and the Opposition reached on
> New Year’s Eve under the aegis of the Conference of Bishops
> (CENCO) averted a disaster, but its implementation faces
> increasing difficulties that jeopardize the process intended to
> lead to peaceful elections this year.
>
> Both the spirit and the letter of the agreement are not being
> respected thereby endangering a non-violent political transition,
> which we believe is vital for the future stability and prosperity
> of the DRC.
>
> Elections with integrity are the only peaceful strategy possible
> for resolving the crisis of legitimacy besetting the Congo’s
> institutions."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

The statement concludes that "left unresolved the crisis will have
continental implications." Human Rights Watch (1-June) and Africa News (4-June) and Newsweek (16-June) and Kofi Annan Foundation (6-June)

****
**** Catholic Church report documents massive government atrocities in DRC's Kasai region
****


Based on a new report by the Catholic Church, the Zeid Ra'ad
al-Hussein, the chief of the UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR), accused
authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) of mass
atrocities against people in the Luba and Lulua ethnic tribes in
Central Kasai province in DRC:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The humanitarian and human rights situation has
> deteriorated dramatically [over the last three months] and various
> actors are fueling ethnic hatred, resulting in extremely
> grave, widespread and apparently planned attacks against the
> civilian population in the Kasais. ...
>
> I am appalled by the creation and arming of a militia, the Bana
> Mura, allegedly to support the authorities in fighting the Kamwina
> Nsapu (rebels), but which has carried out horrific attacks against
> civilians from the Luba and Lulua ethnic groups. ...
>
> Refugees from multiple villages ... indicated that the Bana Mura
> have in the past two months shot dead, hacked or burned to death,
> and mutilated, hundreds of villagers, as well as destroying entire
> villages."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Unrest in the DRC capital Kinshasa turned violent on September 16 of
last year, when DRC's electoral commission failed to launch the
constitutionally-required presidential election process, making it
evident that president Joseph Kabila had no intention of holding
elections and stepping down.

By the time that Kabila's term in office ended on December 16, there
was a growing civil war that was temporarily slowed by the agreement
previously mentioned brokered by the Catholic Church that Kabila
didn't even sign.

Kabila's greatest opposition stronghold is in the Central Kasai
province, among the Luba and Lulua tribes. Tribal chieftain Kamwina
Nsapu, was killed in August of last year, resulting in the formation
of the Kamwina Nsapu anti-government insurgency. By January, 216,000
people had been displaced, and more than 400 killed, and the unrest
and violence have been spreading to other regions.

The government created and armed its own militia, the Bana Mura
militia. Apparently its actions were similar to those of the
Janjaweed militias in Darfur. Sudan's government originally created
the Janjaweed militias was to police the Darfur region, but in time
the Janjaweed militias began committing mass atrocities, including
killings, rape and torture.

So the DRC government created the Bana Mura militia to police the Luba
and Lulua tribes in Kasai province, but they're now accused of
committing mass atrocities, including killings, rape and torture.

UNHCR chief Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein is calling for a full scale
investigation of the atrocities, and is asking the United Nations
Security Council to authorize the investigation. However, DRC's
government is refusing to cooperate with any investigation, and is
forbidding any investigators from entering the region. The
investigation is also being opposed by representatives from other
African countries, who fear that such an investigation might lead to
investigations of government atrocities in their own countries.
United Nations and Crisis Group (13-Oct-2016) and TRT World (Turkey) and Crisis Group (21-Mar)

****
**** Brief generational history of DRC's Kasai region
****


The Democratic Republic of Congo is an enormously large, almost the
size of one-fourth of the United States. It's a country on multiple
generational timelines. In particular, the violence in eastern DRC is
on a different timeline, closely related to the Rwanda genocide, than
southern DRC, containing the Kasai region.

United Nation officials are concerned that the unrest in Kasai is
going to turn into a full scale civil war. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, this is a growing possibility, but not the most
likely outcome at this particular time.

After the decolonization of Belgian Congo, the Republic of Great Kasai
declared its independence on June 14, 1960. On August 8, 1960, the
autonomous Mining State of South Kasai was proclaimed with its capital
at Bakwanga (present-day Mbuji-Mayi).

The Congo became independent on June 30, 1960. During a bloody four
month military campaign in which thousands of civilians were
massacred, troops of the Congolese central government re-conquered the
Kasai region, and ended the South Kasai secession.

So South Kasai's last generational crisis war climaxed 57 years ago.
In analysis of hundreds of previous generational crisis wars, it turns
out that a new generational crisis war is most likely to start 58
years after the climax of the previous one, as that appears to be the
critical time when most of the survivors of the previous war disappear
(retire or die). South Kasai is thus on the cusp of a generational
Unraveling era, transitioning into a generational Crisis era. So from
the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's quite possible that
the current growing violence will spiral into full-scale civil war
this year, but it's more likely that a full scale war will wait until
next year. Africa Federation - Kasai History

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, UN Human Rights Council, UNHCR,
Central Kasai province, Luba tribe, Lulua tribe,
Joseph Kabila, Kamwina Nsapu, Bana Mura,
Sudan, Darfur, Janjaweed militias,
Belgian Congo, Republic of Great Kasai,
Mining State of South Kasai, The Congo

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John J. Xenakis
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