06-23-2017, 10:05 PM
*** 24-Jun-17 World View -- India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war
****
![[Image: g170623b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170623b.jpg)
Indian army soldiers conduct a patrol during an operation against suspected rebels in Kashmir (AFP)
Tit-for-tat violence between Kashmir separatist insurgents and Indian
security forces is escalating again. It was just last month that
India launched a massive house-to-house sweep
in Kashmir, using 3,000 security forces to
root out terrorists. Insurgents have responded with new attacks,
including the beating to death of an Indian police officer.
Now, Indian security forces are signaling that their patience has run
its course, and a new "Operation All-Out" is being launched.
According to media reports in India:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The country's top security establishment has prepared
> a blueprint to deliver a lethal blow to terrorism in Jammu and
> Kashmir with a long-term plan for a lasting peace in the
> trouble-torn Valley. ... As many as 258 militants from a clutch of
> outfits have been shortlisted for Operation All-Out that has been
> launched strategically in parts of the region. ...
>
> Sources also said intelligence inputs reveal that a new
> consignment of arms arrived in the Valley from across the border.
> "These are Chinese-made arms with better precision and more lethal
> effects," the sources said, pointing out that Chinese hand
> grenades were used in an attack on a CRPF Battalion this
> week."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
These statements are significant not only because they signal
escalated fighting in Kashmir, but also because they suggest Chinese
intervention on the side of Pakistan.
According to the reports, the 258 militants who are being targeted are
mostly from three terrorist groups:
India Legal Live and AP and India Today
Related Articles
****
**** Kashmir escalations building to all-out war
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics and generational
theory, Kashmir is rapidly heading for all-out war, possibly by the
end of this summer.
Very long-time readers, may recall that in January, 2008, I wrote an
article titled "Sri Lanka government declares all-out war against Tamil Tiger rebels."
In that article, I wrote about the Sri Lankan civil war between the
governing ethnic majority (Buddhist) Sinhalese and the ethnic minority
(Hindu) Tamils. A separatist group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) or "Tamil Tigers" had been fighting an insurgency since
the 1970s, although a peace agreement had been signed in 2003.
In that article, I quoted a military chief as saying that he was
"confident" of defeating the Tamil by the end of the year. He said
that the Tamils had violated the peace agreement repeatedly, so that
it was meaningless, and:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning
> point once we are
able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate
> in bunkers and
forward defense lines."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The government had indeed run out of patience, and launched all-out
war against the Tamil separatists, even killing them with artillery
when they were hiding behind innocent civilians used as human shields.
The civil war climaxed in May 2009, following reports of genocide on
both sides, when the separatist Tamil Tigers surrendered
and renounced further violence, ending the Sri
Lanka crisis civil war.
If we apply the Sri Lanka situation to the current situation in
Kashmir, there are some similarities and differences. In both cases,
there was an ethnic/religious fault line (Buddhist Sinhalese versus
Hindu Tamils, and Muslim Kashmiris versus Hindu Indians).
In both cases, the insurgency had gone on for years, with periods of
low-level violence alternating with periods of mediated peace. In
both cases, each new round of violence was worse than the previous
one.
When the Sinhalese army "lost patience" in January 2008, it was a
turning point in the war. In terms of Generational Dynamics, this was
the point of "regeneracy," a term that's used in generational theory
to describe the regeneracy of civic unity for the first time since the
climactic end of the previous generational crisis war. The regeneracy
is characterized by increased xenophobia and nationalism on all sides,
and an attitude of "lost patience," meaning that "I'm going to end
this war, once and for all." Compromise is no longer an option. The
war continues and becomes increasingly genocidal, until there's an
explosive genocidal climax that's so horrible that it brings the war
to an end.
So in the case of Sri Lanka, the war did come to an end. Only now,
nine years later, are we beginning to see the first signs of new
decades of on again off again conflict, this time between the
Sinhalese Buddhists and the Muslim Bodu Bala Sena (BBS).
So what does this tell us about Kashmir? In Sri Lanka, there was
"lost patience," a regeneracy, another 17 months of increasingly
genocidal fighting, an explosive climax, and then the war was over.
So with "Operation All-Out," we might imagine another 17 months of
increasingly genocidal conflict between the Kashmiris and the Indian
security forces, after which there will be an explosive climax and the
war will be over.
But one can quickly see that won't happen in Kashmir. Sri Lanka is a
relatively small island, and the fighting was contained to that
island. India might have intervened, but did not intervene, so the
war ended.
Kashmir is a small region, but it's surrounded by Pakistan and India.
The war in Kashmir would not be contained. All-out war in Kashmir
would spread to all-out war between Pakistan and India, with China
supporting Pakistan and Russia supporting India. All-out war in
Kashmir would be the start of the Clash of Civilizations World War.
Related Articles
****
**** Multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan kill nearly 50
****
There were multiple terror attacks in cities across Pakistan on
Friday, killing 47 people and injuring hundreds of others.
At least 25 people were killed in two explosions at a market in the
north-western town of Parachinar. The two explosions went off almost
simultaneously near a bus terminal. The second explosion happened as
rescuers rushed to help the injured from the first explosion. Four
more people died later when security forces confronted an angry crowd
protesting about the poor security situation.
At least 13 people died in a suicide bombing in Quetta. In Karachi,
at least four policemen were reported to have been shot and killed on
Friday evening.
The Pakistan army's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) agency said
that the terrorists who conducted the attacks had crossed the border
from "sanctuaries" in Afghanistan.
Both Pakistan and Afghanistan regularly blame sanctuaries in each
other's country for terrorist attacks in their own country. There is
actually some truth to this, as terrorists cross the border in either
direction, blow up a marketplace or whatever, and then flee from local
security forces back across the border where the security forces can't
follow. BBC
and Geo TV (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kashmir, India, Operation All-Out, China,
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Mumbai,
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Pathankot air base,
Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM), Burhan Wani,
Sri Lanka, Sinhalese, Buddhists, Tamils, Hindus, Tamil Tigers,
Bodu Bala Sena, BBS,
Pakistan, Quetta, Parachinar, Karachi,
Inter-Services Public Relations, ISPR
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war
- Kashmir escalations building to all-out war
- Multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan kill nearly 50
****
**** India's 'Operation All-Out' brings Kashmir closer to all-out war
****
Indian army soldiers conduct a patrol during an operation against suspected rebels in Kashmir (AFP)
Tit-for-tat violence between Kashmir separatist insurgents and Indian
security forces is escalating again. It was just last month that
India launched a massive house-to-house sweep
in Kashmir, using 3,000 security forces to
root out terrorists. Insurgents have responded with new attacks,
including the beating to death of an Indian police officer.
Now, Indian security forces are signaling that their patience has run
its course, and a new "Operation All-Out" is being launched.
According to media reports in India:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The country's top security establishment has prepared
> a blueprint to deliver a lethal blow to terrorism in Jammu and
> Kashmir with a long-term plan for a lasting peace in the
> trouble-torn Valley. ... As many as 258 militants from a clutch of
> outfits have been shortlisted for Operation All-Out that has been
> launched strategically in parts of the region. ...
>
> Sources also said intelligence inputs reveal that a new
> consignment of arms arrived in the Valley from across the border.
> "These are Chinese-made arms with better precision and more lethal
> effects," the sources said, pointing out that Chinese hand
> grenades were used in an attack on a CRPF Battalion this
> week."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
These statements are significant not only because they signal
escalated fighting in Kashmir, but also because they suggest Chinese
intervention on the side of Pakistan.
According to the reports, the 258 militants who are being targeted are
mostly from three terrorist groups:
- Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist group that
was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and
Jammu. LeT was the perpetrator of the horrific "26/11" three-day
attack on Mumbai in 2008, killing 166 people and wounding hundreds
more. ( "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis"
from 2008)
- Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), a Pakistan-based terrorist group
responsible for the January 2016 attack on India's Pathankot air base,
leading to a three-day
gunfight.
- Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM), a Kashmir-based terrorist group that has
been leading the anti-Indian stone-throwing riots of the past year,
triggered by the July 8 2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian army.
Since
then, thousands of Kashmiris have been blinded in one or both eyes by
pellet guns used by Indian security forces, and thousands of youths
have been arrested.
India Legal Live and AP and India Today
Related Articles
- Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep (06-May-2017)
- Police clashes in India-governed Kashmir kill 36 and leave thousands injured (14-Jul-2016)
- India threatens retaliation on Pakistan terrorists for Pathankot air base attack (12-Jan-2016)
****
**** Kashmir escalations building to all-out war
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics and generational
theory, Kashmir is rapidly heading for all-out war, possibly by the
end of this summer.
Very long-time readers, may recall that in January, 2008, I wrote an
article titled "Sri Lanka government declares all-out war against Tamil Tiger rebels."
In that article, I wrote about the Sri Lankan civil war between the
governing ethnic majority (Buddhist) Sinhalese and the ethnic minority
(Hindu) Tamils. A separatist group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) or "Tamil Tigers" had been fighting an insurgency since
the 1970s, although a peace agreement had been signed in 2003.
In that article, I quoted a military chief as saying that he was
"confident" of defeating the Tamil by the end of the year. He said
that the Tamils had violated the peace agreement repeatedly, so that
it was meaningless, and:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We can bring the war against the LTTE to a turning
> point once we are
able to destroy the LTTE capabilities to operate
> in bunkers and
forward defense lines."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The government had indeed run out of patience, and launched all-out
war against the Tamil separatists, even killing them with artillery
when they were hiding behind innocent civilians used as human shields.
The civil war climaxed in May 2009, following reports of genocide on
both sides, when the separatist Tamil Tigers surrendered
and renounced further violence, ending the Sri
Lanka crisis civil war.
If we apply the Sri Lanka situation to the current situation in
Kashmir, there are some similarities and differences. In both cases,
there was an ethnic/religious fault line (Buddhist Sinhalese versus
Hindu Tamils, and Muslim Kashmiris versus Hindu Indians).
In both cases, the insurgency had gone on for years, with periods of
low-level violence alternating with periods of mediated peace. In
both cases, each new round of violence was worse than the previous
one.
When the Sinhalese army "lost patience" in January 2008, it was a
turning point in the war. In terms of Generational Dynamics, this was
the point of "regeneracy," a term that's used in generational theory
to describe the regeneracy of civic unity for the first time since the
climactic end of the previous generational crisis war. The regeneracy
is characterized by increased xenophobia and nationalism on all sides,
and an attitude of "lost patience," meaning that "I'm going to end
this war, once and for all." Compromise is no longer an option. The
war continues and becomes increasingly genocidal, until there's an
explosive genocidal climax that's so horrible that it brings the war
to an end.
So in the case of Sri Lanka, the war did come to an end. Only now,
nine years later, are we beginning to see the first signs of new
decades of on again off again conflict, this time between the
Sinhalese Buddhists and the Muslim Bodu Bala Sena (BBS).
So what does this tell us about Kashmir? In Sri Lanka, there was
"lost patience," a regeneracy, another 17 months of increasingly
genocidal fighting, an explosive climax, and then the war was over.
So with "Operation All-Out," we might imagine another 17 months of
increasingly genocidal conflict between the Kashmiris and the Indian
security forces, after which there will be an explosive climax and the
war will be over.
But one can quickly see that won't happen in Kashmir. Sri Lanka is a
relatively small island, and the fighting was contained to that
island. India might have intervened, but did not intervene, so the
war ended.
Kashmir is a small region, but it's surrounded by Pakistan and India.
The war in Kashmir would not be contained. All-out war in Kashmir
would spread to all-out war between Pakistan and India, with China
supporting Pakistan and Russia supporting India. All-out war in
Kashmir would be the start of the Clash of Civilizations World War.
Related Articles
- Sri Lanka targets radical nationalist Buddhists in Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) (12-Jun-2017)
- Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels (04-Jan-2008)
- Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war (17-May-2009)
****
**** Multiple terrorist attacks across Pakistan kill nearly 50
****
There were multiple terror attacks in cities across Pakistan on
Friday, killing 47 people and injuring hundreds of others.
At least 25 people were killed in two explosions at a market in the
north-western town of Parachinar. The two explosions went off almost
simultaneously near a bus terminal. The second explosion happened as
rescuers rushed to help the injured from the first explosion. Four
more people died later when security forces confronted an angry crowd
protesting about the poor security situation.
At least 13 people died in a suicide bombing in Quetta. In Karachi,
at least four policemen were reported to have been shot and killed on
Friday evening.
The Pakistan army's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) agency said
that the terrorists who conducted the attacks had crossed the border
from "sanctuaries" in Afghanistan.
Both Pakistan and Afghanistan regularly blame sanctuaries in each
other's country for terrorist attacks in their own country. There is
actually some truth to this, as terrorists cross the border in either
direction, blow up a marketplace or whatever, and then flee from local
security forces back across the border where the security forces can't
follow. BBC
and Geo TV (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)
Related Articles
- Pakistan artillery pounds terrorist 'safe havens' in Afghanistan (21-Feb-2017)
- Multiple terror bombings cross Pakistan and Afghanistan (13-Nov-2016)
- Pak-Afghan border crisis revives controversy over 120 year old Durand Line (19-Jun-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kashmir, India, Operation All-Out, China,
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Mumbai,
Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Pathankot air base,
Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM), Burhan Wani,
Sri Lanka, Sinhalese, Buddhists, Tamils, Hindus, Tamil Tigers,
Bodu Bala Sena, BBS,
Pakistan, Quetta, Parachinar, Karachi,
Inter-Services Public Relations, ISPR
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
