Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

(06-26-2017, 08:57 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Maybe by emphasizing "foreign fighters", Nasrallah means Iran will
> arm and supply them.

If that's true, it would be part of Nasrallah's delusion.

The Iranian people -- and by this I mean the Prophet and Nomad
generations that have grown up since the 1979 revolution and the
subsequent Iran/Iraq war -- are willing to support Iran's intervention
in Syria because of the huge strategic importance of Bashar al-Assad.

Here's something that I wrote earlier this year:

Quote:> But Iran is adamant that al-Assad must stay, and cannot even be
> replaced by someone with similar policies. According to one
> analysis, the cause springs from the fact that Iran is quite
> isolated in the region, as the only Shia Muslim state, but
> surrounded by Sunni Muslim and Christian states. Thus, Iran is
> forced to rely on non-state alliances -- the Houthis in Yemen,
> Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, the
> Badr Organization in Iraq, Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and Shia/Alawite
> Bashar al-Assad in Syria -- forming the "Shia Crescent."
> According to this analysis, if Iran is not completely loyal to
> al-Assad, then all the other non-state groups in its coalition
> will receive a signal that they're expendable as well, which would
> destabilize the entire coalition. Instead, Iran sees that it must
> remain completely loyal to al-Assad, and Hezbollah militias must
> remain in Syria to protect Iran's interests there -- including
> from the Turks and the Russians.

** 13-Feb-17 World View -- After Syria's so-called ceasefire, tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170213

However, there's no such strategic advantage to a war with Israel.
That's one of the many bizarre things about the current situation. If
Israel were suddenly to disappear from the face of the earth, it would
be a disaster for the Iran hardliners' policy, since they need Israel
as a foil to gain influence among the Palestinians, who otherwise
would join Saudi Arabia in viewing Iran as nothing more than an
existential threat.

Incidentally, this is based on success of the Iranian hostage crisis
that began in 1979 and continued for years. The hostage crisis was a
huge success for Khomeini's government because it united the entire
country behind him. Today, Iran is in an Awakening era, and Khamenei
is completely baffled by the fact that he doesn't have the same kind
of populist support that his predecessor had. So he uses threats
against Israel, the US and West hoping to regenerate unity in the same
way that the hostage crisis did in 1979, but of course that has no
chance of working today.