06-28-2017, 09:08 AM
(06-28-2017, 06:50 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(06-27-2017, 06:27 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ...the 1973 oil embargo, which came out of Israel's war with Egypt, did the opposite -- it cemented the US-Saudi relationship.This is an observation of the fact of US kissing Saudi ass. Not addressed is Why? Why is the embargo a forgivable offense? Why is 911 a forgivable offense? Today Saudi oil is bad for the US since it suppresses US production. So oil doesn't make any sense.
Your model was my operating assumption in 2003 when the Iraq war began, which I initially supported. I thought the war was about cleaning up loose ends from the Gulf War, which was openly about oil, making the second Iraq war indirectly about oil (I always saw the WMD think as a mere pretext).
And for a while it looked like I was right, we invaded with a force large enough to decapitate the regime (remember the deck of cards) but not occupy the country. We sent Garner in to talk to Iraqi generals with an eye to replacing Saddam with a new strongman. We ended the embargo and began the withdrawal of troops form Saudi Arabia (two of the pretexts AQ gave for 911). Presumably we would have the new guy make deals with US oil companies, maybe pay them an indemnity, and leave. And then, all of a sudden, Garner was out and Bremer came in and proceeded to ban the Baathists and dismantle the army. I immediately turned against the war.
The fact of Bremer means the war was NOT about oil and NOT about restoring the pre-1990 status quo. Apparently Bush was serious about building Democracy in the Middle East, which I had assumed was pure bullshit.
And so we come to the current support for the Saudis and the fact of what we did in Iraq. These two things are completely incompatible with each other. Both were done by Republicans. Are they now schizophrenic? I've washed my hands, I'm practically an isolationist now.
Do you have a way to square Saudi support = OIL with Iraq invasion <> OIL?
The Iraq invasion not being about oil doesn't mean it wasn't about unfinished business. One of the views of the Gulf War was that we should have enforced the no fly zone in the south to prevent Saddam Hussein from putting down a popular rebellion there. The fantasy was that the popular rebellion would have led naturally to an enlightened, democratic government.
Once the situation in Iraq proved that, far from being willing to support en enlightened, democratic government through individual sacrifice and force of arms, the population of Iraq didn't really even understand what a democratic government was all about, more sensible Republicans than George W. Bush realized that trying to spread democracy in the Middle East was a stupid idea.
