07-05-2017, 10:11 PM
*** 6-Jul-17 World View -- Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan
****
![[Image: g170705b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170705b.jpg)
Russia's four de-escalation zones in eastern Syria (al-Jazeera)
Russia's plans to lead all the factions fighting in Syria to reach a
negotiated peace settlement appear to have collapsed on Wednesday,
when Russia, Turkey and Iran failed to agree on details of four
"de-escalation zones" or "safe zones" proposed by Russia at a meeting
in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan in Central Asia.
Wednesday's meeting was based on a peace plan that was signed two
months ago. (See "9-May-17 World View -- Russia, Iran and Turkey announce yet another farcical new Syria peace plan"
.)
In that article, I listed the reasons why it was farcical. The
principal reason is that it didn't include the actual parties to the
Syrian war -- the Shia/Alawite regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad and the Sunni opposition. In fact, none of these actual
participants in the war agreed to the terms of the agreement. That's
why the talks on Wednesday collapsed.
The three countries -- Russia, Iran, and Turkey -- are supposed to be
the "Guarantors" of the agreement, providing whatever troops are
necessary for the functioning of the checkpoints and observation posts
as well as the administration of the security zones.
News reports gave several reasons why the Astana peace talks collapsed
on Wednesday:
A new meeting of the three countries is to take place in Tehran on
August 1-2, with a self-imposed deadline of the last week of August to
work out all the details. Reuters and AFP and Sputnik (Moscow) and VOA
Related Articles
****
**** The four de-escalation zones
****
The map of Syria above shows the four de-escalation zones on the left
(western side) of the map of Syria appearing above. The four zones,
taken together, are enclaves containing over 2.5 million Sunni
civilians, mostly women and children, in areas controlled variously by
al-Qaeda linked or moderate opposition rebels. These millions of
civilians are people that al-Assad in the past has made clear that he
wants to exterminate as if they were cockroaches, and so which is why
neither Assad nor the the opposition rebels were willing to sign
Russia's agreement.
Here are al-Jazeera's descriptions of the four zones:
There's little agreement among all the parties as to how the so-called
"Guarantors" of de-escalation zones or safe zones are going to enforce
the terms of the proposed agreement.
Russia had announced on Tuesday that they would deploy the Russian
military police carrying light weapons within two to three weeks, but
that plan is now on hold after the peace talks collapsed on Wednesday.
Because of the difficulty in getting agreement on whose military
forces will be occupying each of the safe zones, Russia has asked two
Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to send some of
their own soldiers as peacekeepers.
However, Kazakhstan has already refused, saying that an essential
condition for sending Kazakh peacekeepers is the existence of a UN
Security Council resolution and the corresponding mandate of the UN.
Al-Jazeera and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Sputnik News
****
**** Is the end of the Syrian war in sight?
****
Last year, al-Assad's military, supported by overwhelming destructive
force provided by Russia and Iran, was going to destroy the city of
Aleppo. That was going to end the war because it would demoralize the
opposition groups and jihadists so they would lose interest in
fighting, and would go home.
At the time, Bashar al-Assad called it "history in the making":
> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The liberation of Aleppo was] history in the making
> and worthy of more than the word congratulations.
>
> History is being written in these moments. Every Syrian citizen is
> taking part in the writing. It started not today, but years ago
> when the crisis and the war on Syria began.
>
> I think that after the liberation of Aleppo we’ll talk about the
> situation as ... before the liberation of Aleppo and after the
> liberation of Aleppo."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Bashar al-Assad has proven himself to be psychopathic genocidal killer,
the worst war criminal so far this century, so it's not surprising
that he was totally delusional about the outcome of his slaughter of
the people of Aleppo.
I've written about any number of Syria peace plans over the years.
Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of
the United Nations from Ghana, was the first UN envoy on Syria. Annan
formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan'
which said absolutely nothing, but which al-Assad used
as a cover to continue exterminating innocent Sunni women and children
with impunity.
After Kofi Annan was repeatedly humiliated by Bashar al-Assad, the UN
appointed a new Syria peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi,
to replace Kofi Annan. Brahimi wasn't as much of
an idiot as Annan was, but he still resigned in disgust in May 2014,
after it became clear that
al-Assad really had no desire to do anything but exterminate Sunni
civilians. Now, the current UN envoy is Staffan de Mistura, who goes
around all the time saying, "This will not be tolerated," but who
accomplishes nothing except, again, to provide cover for Bashar
al-Assad's atrocities.
All of these peace plans have failed because the psychopathic,
delusional Bashar al-Assad doesn't want the war to end. The war
will never end as long as al-Assad is in power.
The map at the beginning of this article shows how Syria is currently
divided up among different militias. Russia's peace plan did not
address any of this, except for four zones in the western region
supposedly still controlled by al-Assad. There will be a particular
dispute between Turkey and the Kurds, as the latter try to join the
two yellow areas into a single Kurdish state called Rojava, and Turkey
does everything possible to prevent it.
The latest fantasy about the end of the war is that the war will end
in the next few weeks, due to the defeat of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in its last two strongholds,
Raqqa, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq. According to this theory, the
remaining opposition forces are located in small, geographically
isolated enclaves, so they won't be able to coordinate their actions
into a significant fighting force.
The problem with this reasoning is that the defeat of ISIS in Raqqa
and Mosul is just a simple tactical victory. It does not address the
core issues that started the civil war in 2011, when al-Assad began
exterminating Sunni women and children who were simply peaceful
protesters.
Furthermore, defeating ISIS does not mean the end of the fighters in
ISIS. As we've been reporting recently, they can flee to Deir az-Zour
in eastern Syria. Scattered Sunni rebel militias can unify for the
same reason as before -- to fight against al-Assad. That's the reason
that tens of thousands of jihadists from 86 countries around the world
came to Syria, and ended up forming ISIS. We should expect to see new
versions of al-Nusra and ISIS to be formed in the weeks to come.
War on the Rocks
Related Articles
[/list]
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan, de-escalation zones,
Aleppo, Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura,
Raqqa, Mosul, Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan
- The four de-escalation zones
- Is the end of the Syrian war in sight?
****
**** Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan
****
Russia's four de-escalation zones in eastern Syria (al-Jazeera)
Russia's plans to lead all the factions fighting in Syria to reach a
negotiated peace settlement appear to have collapsed on Wednesday,
when Russia, Turkey and Iran failed to agree on details of four
"de-escalation zones" or "safe zones" proposed by Russia at a meeting
in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan in Central Asia.
Wednesday's meeting was based on a peace plan that was signed two
months ago. (See "9-May-17 World View -- Russia, Iran and Turkey announce yet another farcical new Syria peace plan"
.)
In that article, I listed the reasons why it was farcical. The
principal reason is that it didn't include the actual parties to the
Syrian war -- the Shia/Alawite regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad and the Sunni opposition. In fact, none of these actual
participants in the war agreed to the terms of the agreement. That's
why the talks on Wednesday collapsed.
The three countries -- Russia, Iran, and Turkey -- are supposed to be
the "Guarantors" of the agreement, providing whatever troops are
necessary for the functioning of the checkpoints and observation posts
as well as the administration of the security zones.
News reports gave several reasons why the Astana peace talks collapsed
on Wednesday:
- The Syrians and Russians blamed the Turks as being unwilling
to agree to any implementation of the zones.
- Turkey and Iran were unable to agree on whose troops would
be used to guarantee the safety of the safe zones.
- The moderate Sunni rebels said that they would refuse a proposal
to have Iran monitor the safe zone in central Homs province.
- The United States and United Nations were purposely excluded from
the Astana peace talks, but Russia now agrees that the United States
and Jordan will have to be involved in some way to cover the zone in
southern Syria.
- Russia also blames the failure of the talks on Wednesday on the
United States, because of uncertainty about what Donald Trump and
Vladimir Putin will agree to when they meet at the G-20 summit in
Hamburg on Friday. Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in an
interview on Monday the he would also discuss the issue with Putin at
the G-20 summit.
A new meeting of the three countries is to take place in Tehran on
August 1-2, with a self-imposed deadline of the last week of August to
work out all the details. Reuters and AFP and Sputnik (Moscow) and VOA
Related Articles
- Russia, Iran and Turkey announce yet another farcical new Syria peace plan (09-May-2017)
- In dramatic development, US warplanes smash fortified wall in Raqqa, Syria (05-Jul-2017)
****
**** The four de-escalation zones
****
The map of Syria above shows the four de-escalation zones on the left
(western side) of the map of Syria appearing above. The four zones,
taken together, are enclaves containing over 2.5 million Sunni
civilians, mostly women and children, in areas controlled variously by
al-Qaeda linked or moderate opposition rebels. These millions of
civilians are people that al-Assad in the past has made clear that he
wants to exterminate as if they were cockroaches, and so which is why
neither Assad nor the the opposition rebels were willing to sign
Russia's agreement.
Here are al-Jazeera's descriptions of the four zones:
- Zone 1: Idlib province, as well as northeastern areas of
Latakia province, western areas of Aleppo province and northern areas
of Hama province. There are more than one million civilians in this
zone and its rebel factions are dominated by an al-Qaeda-linked
alliance.
- Zone 2: The Rastan and Talbiseh enclave in northern Homs province.
There are approximately 180,000 civilians in this zone and its network
of rebel groups includes al-Qaeda-linked fighters.
- Zone 3: Eastern Ghouta in the northern Damascus countryside.
Controlled by Jaish al-Islam, a powerful rebel faction that was
participating in the Astana talks, it is home to about 690,000
civilians. This zone does not include the adjacent,
government-besieged area of Qaboun.
- Zone 4: The rebel-controlled south along the border with Jordan
that includes parts of Deraa and Quneitra provinces. Up to 800,000
civilians live there.
There's little agreement among all the parties as to how the so-called
"Guarantors" of de-escalation zones or safe zones are going to enforce
the terms of the proposed agreement.
Russia had announced on Tuesday that they would deploy the Russian
military police carrying light weapons within two to three weeks, but
that plan is now on hold after the peace talks collapsed on Wednesday.
Because of the difficulty in getting agreement on whose military
forces will be occupying each of the safe zones, Russia has asked two
Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to send some of
their own soldiers as peacekeepers.
However, Kazakhstan has already refused, saying that an essential
condition for sending Kazakh peacekeepers is the existence of a UN
Security Council resolution and the corresponding mandate of the UN.
Al-Jazeera and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Sputnik News
****
**** Is the end of the Syrian war in sight?
****
Last year, al-Assad's military, supported by overwhelming destructive
force provided by Russia and Iran, was going to destroy the city of
Aleppo. That was going to end the war because it would demoralize the
opposition groups and jihadists so they would lose interest in
fighting, and would go home.
At the time, Bashar al-Assad called it "history in the making":
> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The liberation of Aleppo was] history in the making
> and worthy of more than the word congratulations.
>
> History is being written in these moments. Every Syrian citizen is
> taking part in the writing. It started not today, but years ago
> when the crisis and the war on Syria began.
>
> I think that after the liberation of Aleppo we’ll talk about the
> situation as ... before the liberation of Aleppo and after the
> liberation of Aleppo."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Bashar al-Assad has proven himself to be psychopathic genocidal killer,
the worst war criminal so far this century, so it's not surprising
that he was totally delusional about the outcome of his slaughter of
the people of Aleppo.
I've written about any number of Syria peace plans over the years.
Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of
the United Nations from Ghana, was the first UN envoy on Syria. Annan
formulated a farcical six-point 'peace plan'
which said absolutely nothing, but which al-Assad used
as a cover to continue exterminating innocent Sunni women and children
with impunity.
After Kofi Annan was repeatedly humiliated by Bashar al-Assad, the UN
appointed a new Syria peace envoy, Lakhdar Brahimi,
to replace Kofi Annan. Brahimi wasn't as much of
an idiot as Annan was, but he still resigned in disgust in May 2014,
after it became clear that
al-Assad really had no desire to do anything but exterminate Sunni
civilians. Now, the current UN envoy is Staffan de Mistura, who goes
around all the time saying, "This will not be tolerated," but who
accomplishes nothing except, again, to provide cover for Bashar
al-Assad's atrocities.
All of these peace plans have failed because the psychopathic,
delusional Bashar al-Assad doesn't want the war to end. The war
will never end as long as al-Assad is in power.
The map at the beginning of this article shows how Syria is currently
divided up among different militias. Russia's peace plan did not
address any of this, except for four zones in the western region
supposedly still controlled by al-Assad. There will be a particular
dispute between Turkey and the Kurds, as the latter try to join the
two yellow areas into a single Kurdish state called Rojava, and Turkey
does everything possible to prevent it.
The latest fantasy about the end of the war is that the war will end
in the next few weeks, due to the defeat of the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in its last two strongholds,
Raqqa, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq. According to this theory, the
remaining opposition forces are located in small, geographically
isolated enclaves, so they won't be able to coordinate their actions
into a significant fighting force.
The problem with this reasoning is that the defeat of ISIS in Raqqa
and Mosul is just a simple tactical victory. It does not address the
core issues that started the civil war in 2011, when al-Assad began
exterminating Sunni women and children who were simply peaceful
protesters.
Furthermore, defeating ISIS does not mean the end of the fighters in
ISIS. As we've been reporting recently, they can flee to Deir az-Zour
in eastern Syria. Scattered Sunni rebel militias can unify for the
same reason as before -- to fight against al-Assad. That's the reason
that tens of thousands of jihadists from 86 countries around the world
came to Syria, and ended up forming ISIS. We should expect to see new
versions of al-Nusra and ISIS to be formed in the weeks to come.
War on the Rocks
Related Articles
- US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria (09-Jun-2017)
- Syria's so-called ceasefire collapses after terrorist bombings in Homs (26-Feb-2017)
- Generational theory: Bashar al-Assad's miscalculation (11-Sep-2016)
[/list]
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan, de-escalation zones,
Aleppo, Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura,
Raqqa, Mosul, Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
