07-06-2017, 10:35 PM
*** 7-Jul-17 World View -- Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations
****
![[Image: g170706b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170706b.jpg)
A large American flag-waving crowd greets Donald Trump in Warsaw Poland on Thursday
When President Donald J. Trump gave his inauguration speech on January
20, I wrote that the speech links today's America to the 1930s,
because it evoked the 1930s mood of
nationalism and isolationism.
Thursday's speech in Warsaw Poland was even more strongly linked to
the 1930s, suggesting that we're facing a Clash of Civilizations world
war in the same way that Poland was devastated by World War II. The
theme of isolationism was still present in remarks about the need to
"protect our borders."
More interesting were the themes around nationalism. Themes about
American nationalism -- pride in America and loyalty to American
values -- have been broadened to encompass pride in Western
civilization and loyalty to the values of Western civilization --
individual freedom, security, free speech, free expression, empowering
women, striving for excellence, valuing human dignity, honoring God,
treasuring the rule of law, putting faith and family at the center of
our lives.
Trump gave the speech to a large, extremely enthusiastic and euphoric
crowd in Warsaw, frequently chanting, "Donald Trump! Donald Trump!
Donald Trump!"
The comparison is to candidate Barack Obama's speech in Berlin in July
2008. There was a large, extremely enthusiastic and euphoric crowd.
As I wrote at the time in "Barack Obama in Berlin calls for greater European militarism"
, the lines that drew the greatest and most
euphoric responses were the anti-American statements, like "Will we
reject torture and stand for the rule of law?"
Trump must have had the speech in mind when he delivered Thursday's
speech, with its emphasis on preserving and honoring Western
civilization, and particularly when he said the following:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This is my first visit to Central Europe as
> President, and I am thrilled that it could be right here at this
> magnificent, beautiful piece of land. It is beautiful. Poland is
> the geographic heart of Europe, but more importantly, in the
> Polish people, we see the soul of Europe. Your nation is great
> because your spirit is great and your spirit is
> strong."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
We can be pretty certain that phrases like "the heart of Europe" and
"the soul of Europe" were directed at Germany's Chancellor Angela
Merkel, whom Trump will be meeting on Friday. Merkel has openly taken
on the task of proving that Trump is so awful that he is isolated in
the world, and so saying that the Polish people are "the soul of
Europe" is a preemptive strike.
****
**** Remembering the horrors that Poland suffered in World War II
****
Much of Trump's speech reminded that enthusiastic audience of the the
horrors that Poland went through in World War II:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"In 1920, in the Miracle of Vistula, Poland stopped
> the Soviet army bent on European conquest. Then, 19 years later
> in 1939, you were invaded yet again, this time by Nazi Germany
> from the west and the Soviet Union from the east. That's
> trouble. That's tough.
>
> Under a double occupation the Polish people endured evils beyond
> description: the Katyn forest massacre, the occupations, the
> Holocaust, the Warsaw Ghetto and the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, the
> destruction of this beautiful capital city, and the deaths of
> nearly one in five Polish people. A vibrant Jewish population --
> the largest in Europe -- was reduced to almost nothing after the
> Nazis systematically murdered millions of Poland's Jewish
> citizens, along with countless others, during that brutal
> occupation.
>
> In the summer of 1944, the Nazi and Soviet armies were preparing
> for a terrible and bloody battle right here in Warsaw. Amid that
> hell on earth, the citizens of Poland rose up to defend their
> homeland. I am deeply honored to be joined on stage today by
> veterans and heroes of the Warsaw Uprising."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Trump then related those horrors to today's dangers to Western
civilization:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This continent no longer confronts the specter of
> communism. But today we're in the West, and we have to say there
> are dire threats to our security and to our way of life. You see
> what's happening out there. They are threats. We will confront
> them. We will win. But they are threats.
>
> We are confronted by another oppressive ideology -- one that seeks
> to export terrorism and extremism all around the globe. America
> and Europe have suffered one terror attack after another. We're
> going to get it to stop.
>
> During a historic gathering in Saudi Arabia, I called on the
> leaders of more than 50 Muslim nations to join together to drive
> out this menace which threatens all of humanity. We must stand
> united against these shared enemies to strip them of their
> territory and their funding, and their networks, and any form of
> ideological support that they may have. While we will always
> welcome new citizens who share our values and love our people, our
> borders will always be closed to terrorism and extremism of any
> kind.
>
> We are fighting hard against radical Islamic terrorism, and we
> will prevail. We cannot accept those who reject our values and who
> use hatred to justify violence against the innocent.
>
> Today, the West is also confronted by the powers that seek to test
> our will, undermine our confidence, and challenge our
> interests. To meet new forms of aggression, including propaganda,
> financial crimes, and cyberwarfare, we must adapt our alliance to
> compete effectively in new ways and on all new
> battlefields."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Trump mentioned Russia's "destabilizing activities" and urged it to
join in the fight "in defense of civilization itself." He did NOT
mention the current growing crisis with regard to the North Korea, nor
did he mention the growing belligerent militarization of China in the
South China Sea and the development of advanced missile systems.
However, he did say the following:
> [indent]<QUOTE>Americans, Poles, and the nations of Europe value
> individual freedom and sovereignty. We must work together to
> confront forces, whether they come from inside or out, from the
> South or the East, that threaten over time to undermine these
> values and to erase the bonds of culture, faith and tradition that
> make us who we are. If left unchecked, these forces will
> undermine our courage, sap our spirit, and weaken our will to
> defend ourselves and our societies."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I interpret the phrase "forces ... from the South or the East" as
acknowledging that there are other existential threats to America and
Europe, especially from North Korea and China.
Finally, he tied it all together by asking whether the West has the
will to survive:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We have to remember that our defense is not just a
> commitment of money, it is a commitment of will. Because as the
> Polish experience reminds us, the defense of the West ultimately
> rests not only on means but also on the will of its people to
> prevail and be successful and get what you have to have. The
> fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will
> to survive. Do we have the confidence in our values to defend them
> at any cost? Do we have enough respect for our citizens to protect
> our borders? Do we have the desire and the courage to preserve our
> civilization in the face of those who would subvert and destroy
> it?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]
CNN and LA Times
Related Articles
****
**** Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics
****
Whenever I listen to a speech by Donald Trump, I'm always analyzing it
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, because I know that
Generational Dynamics is heavily influencing the Trump administration.
Regular readers are aware that I've worked in the past with Steve
Bannon, a principal Trump advisor. I worked with him on his
documentary movie "Generation Zero," and I worked with him for years
since I started in 2010 cross-posting my articles on the Breitbart
National Security site, where he was the editor in chief.
As I've said many times in the past, Barack Obama came into office
without any clue what was going on in the world, and after 8 years in
office, I've seen no evidence that he's learned anything. Trump also
came into office without any clue what was going on in the world, and
the only relevant question is whether, unlike Obama, he's able to
learn.
It was clear when I met Steve Bannon that he was already very
knowledgeable about what was going on in the world, from serving as an
officer in the Navy and from attending Georgetown University.
However, Bannon also became extremely knowledgeable about my work on
Generational Dynamics. I know that Bannon is extremely knowledgeable
about Generational Dynamics, and I know that Bannon is very
knowledgeable about the conclusions of Generational Dynamics. And I
believe (though can't prove) that he actually agrees with those
conclusions -- that we're headed for a Clash of Civilizations world
war, where the UN, Japan, India, Russia and Iran will be pitted
against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. And I
believe that these conclusions are a big part of the motivation for
Thursday's speech.
It's pretty clear to me that Trump's inauguration speech in January
and his speech Thursday in Poland were completely consistent with the
point of view of Generational Dynamics. Let's look at a couple of
issues.
People my age have wondered all our lives how it was possible for
Britain to be so thoroughly fooled by the Nazis and Adolf Hitler for
years. It was perfectly obvious that the Nazi Germany was preparing
for war with Britain, and Winston Churchill repeatedly warned about
it, so how could British leaders have been so oblivious to the danger?
Today we know the answer, as we see how oblivious the West is to the
danger from North Korea and especially from China, even though it's
perfectly obvious.
For Bannon and Trump, this presents the problem that any recognition
of this situation is met with mockery and ridicule by the mainstream
media, just as happened to Winston Churchill. We might call this "the
Neville Chamberlain effect," named after the person who declared
"peace in our time" after meeting with Hitler in 1939.
So I interpret Trump's speech on Thursday as working around these
problems. By giving a speech to a wildly enthusiastic crowd in
Poland, and calling the Polish people "the soul of Europe," he's
attempting to get around the mockery of the mainstream media, and at
the same time show that Angela Merkel's views are not unanimously held
among the G-20 leaders.
As long-time readers know, since 2003, There are some 4,000 articles
on my web site containing hundreds of predictions, all of which have
come true or are trending true. None has turned out to be false.
There have been some cases, such as my analysis of the Mideast peace
process in 2003, Lebanon in 2006, Sri Lanka in 2009, and Iran in the
last ten years, when I've been right and pretty much the rest of the
world has been wrong. There is no other web site, analyst,
journalist, economist or politician in the world with a better
predictive record than mine. A number of people have challenged this
claim, and all have failed.
Generational Dynamics is the only methodology that tells what's
actually going on in the world. Donald Trump may or may not know
what's going on in the world, but Steve Bannon definitely does, and
Bannon is Trump's principal advisor. It's very gratifying to me
personally that Generational Dynamics is guiding the policy of America
at this time of greatest peril in our history.
Trump and Bannon are trying to find a way to defeat the Generational
Dynamics predictions -- by trying to goad China into blocking North
Korea's nuclear development, by trying to challenge China in the South
China Sea with freedom of navigation trips, and by trying to rouse the
West into confronting the existential threats it faces, rather than
falling into the easy Pollyannaish feelings of the Neville Chamberlain
effect.
Trump said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Those heroes remind us that the West was saved with
> the blood of patriots; that each generation must rise up and play
> their part in its defense -- and that every foot of ground, and
> every last inch of civilization, is worth defending with your
> life."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I wish that I could say that Trump and Bannon will find a way to
succeed at preventing the Clash of Civilizations world war, but
Generational Dynamics tells us that's mathematically impossible. We
can't even be certain that the US will survive the coming world war.
The best we can hope for is that we will survive, and that history
will look back at the America as having once again played its part in
saving civilization.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Warsaw, Poland, Clash of Civilizations,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Russia, North Korea, China, Steve Bannon
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations
- Remembering the horrors that Poland suffered in World War II
- Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics
****
**** Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations
****
A large American flag-waving crowd greets Donald Trump in Warsaw Poland on Thursday
When President Donald J. Trump gave his inauguration speech on January
20, I wrote that the speech links today's America to the 1930s,
because it evoked the 1930s mood of
nationalism and isolationism.
Thursday's speech in Warsaw Poland was even more strongly linked to
the 1930s, suggesting that we're facing a Clash of Civilizations world
war in the same way that Poland was devastated by World War II. The
theme of isolationism was still present in remarks about the need to
"protect our borders."
More interesting were the themes around nationalism. Themes about
American nationalism -- pride in America and loyalty to American
values -- have been broadened to encompass pride in Western
civilization and loyalty to the values of Western civilization --
individual freedom, security, free speech, free expression, empowering
women, striving for excellence, valuing human dignity, honoring God,
treasuring the rule of law, putting faith and family at the center of
our lives.
Trump gave the speech to a large, extremely enthusiastic and euphoric
crowd in Warsaw, frequently chanting, "Donald Trump! Donald Trump!
Donald Trump!"
The comparison is to candidate Barack Obama's speech in Berlin in July
2008. There was a large, extremely enthusiastic and euphoric crowd.
As I wrote at the time in "Barack Obama in Berlin calls for greater European militarism"
, the lines that drew the greatest and most
euphoric responses were the anti-American statements, like "Will we
reject torture and stand for the rule of law?"
Trump must have had the speech in mind when he delivered Thursday's
speech, with its emphasis on preserving and honoring Western
civilization, and particularly when he said the following:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This is my first visit to Central Europe as
> President, and I am thrilled that it could be right here at this
> magnificent, beautiful piece of land. It is beautiful. Poland is
> the geographic heart of Europe, but more importantly, in the
> Polish people, we see the soul of Europe. Your nation is great
> because your spirit is great and your spirit is
> strong."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
We can be pretty certain that phrases like "the heart of Europe" and
"the soul of Europe" were directed at Germany's Chancellor Angela
Merkel, whom Trump will be meeting on Friday. Merkel has openly taken
on the task of proving that Trump is so awful that he is isolated in
the world, and so saying that the Polish people are "the soul of
Europe" is a preemptive strike.
****
**** Remembering the horrors that Poland suffered in World War II
****
Much of Trump's speech reminded that enthusiastic audience of the the
horrors that Poland went through in World War II:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"In 1920, in the Miracle of Vistula, Poland stopped
> the Soviet army bent on European conquest. Then, 19 years later
> in 1939, you were invaded yet again, this time by Nazi Germany
> from the west and the Soviet Union from the east. That's
> trouble. That's tough.
>
> Under a double occupation the Polish people endured evils beyond
> description: the Katyn forest massacre, the occupations, the
> Holocaust, the Warsaw Ghetto and the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, the
> destruction of this beautiful capital city, and the deaths of
> nearly one in five Polish people. A vibrant Jewish population --
> the largest in Europe -- was reduced to almost nothing after the
> Nazis systematically murdered millions of Poland's Jewish
> citizens, along with countless others, during that brutal
> occupation.
>
> In the summer of 1944, the Nazi and Soviet armies were preparing
> for a terrible and bloody battle right here in Warsaw. Amid that
> hell on earth, the citizens of Poland rose up to defend their
> homeland. I am deeply honored to be joined on stage today by
> veterans and heroes of the Warsaw Uprising."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Trump then related those horrors to today's dangers to Western
civilization:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This continent no longer confronts the specter of
> communism. But today we're in the West, and we have to say there
> are dire threats to our security and to our way of life. You see
> what's happening out there. They are threats. We will confront
> them. We will win. But they are threats.
>
> We are confronted by another oppressive ideology -- one that seeks
> to export terrorism and extremism all around the globe. America
> and Europe have suffered one terror attack after another. We're
> going to get it to stop.
>
> During a historic gathering in Saudi Arabia, I called on the
> leaders of more than 50 Muslim nations to join together to drive
> out this menace which threatens all of humanity. We must stand
> united against these shared enemies to strip them of their
> territory and their funding, and their networks, and any form of
> ideological support that they may have. While we will always
> welcome new citizens who share our values and love our people, our
> borders will always be closed to terrorism and extremism of any
> kind.
>
> We are fighting hard against radical Islamic terrorism, and we
> will prevail. We cannot accept those who reject our values and who
> use hatred to justify violence against the innocent.
>
> Today, the West is also confronted by the powers that seek to test
> our will, undermine our confidence, and challenge our
> interests. To meet new forms of aggression, including propaganda,
> financial crimes, and cyberwarfare, we must adapt our alliance to
> compete effectively in new ways and on all new
> battlefields."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Trump mentioned Russia's "destabilizing activities" and urged it to
join in the fight "in defense of civilization itself." He did NOT
mention the current growing crisis with regard to the North Korea, nor
did he mention the growing belligerent militarization of China in the
South China Sea and the development of advanced missile systems.
However, he did say the following:
> [indent]<QUOTE>Americans, Poles, and the nations of Europe value
> individual freedom and sovereignty. We must work together to
> confront forces, whether they come from inside or out, from the
> South or the East, that threaten over time to undermine these
> values and to erase the bonds of culture, faith and tradition that
> make us who we are. If left unchecked, these forces will
> undermine our courage, sap our spirit, and weaken our will to
> defend ourselves and our societies."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I interpret the phrase "forces ... from the South or the East" as
acknowledging that there are other existential threats to America and
Europe, especially from North Korea and China.
Finally, he tied it all together by asking whether the West has the
will to survive:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We have to remember that our defense is not just a
> commitment of money, it is a commitment of will. Because as the
> Polish experience reminds us, the defense of the West ultimately
> rests not only on means but also on the will of its people to
> prevail and be successful and get what you have to have. The
> fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will
> to survive. Do we have the confidence in our values to defend them
> at any cost? Do we have enough respect for our citizens to protect
> our borders? Do we have the desire and the courage to preserve our
> civilization in the face of those who would subvert and destroy
> it?"<END QUOTE>[/indent]
CNN and LA Times
Related Articles
- President Trump's inauguration speech links today's America to the 1930s (21-Jan-2017)
- Barack Obama in Berlin calls for greater European militarism (25-Jul-2008)
****
**** Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Generational Dynamics
****
Whenever I listen to a speech by Donald Trump, I'm always analyzing it
from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, because I know that
Generational Dynamics is heavily influencing the Trump administration.
Regular readers are aware that I've worked in the past with Steve
Bannon, a principal Trump advisor. I worked with him on his
documentary movie "Generation Zero," and I worked with him for years
since I started in 2010 cross-posting my articles on the Breitbart
National Security site, where he was the editor in chief.
As I've said many times in the past, Barack Obama came into office
without any clue what was going on in the world, and after 8 years in
office, I've seen no evidence that he's learned anything. Trump also
came into office without any clue what was going on in the world, and
the only relevant question is whether, unlike Obama, he's able to
learn.
It was clear when I met Steve Bannon that he was already very
knowledgeable about what was going on in the world, from serving as an
officer in the Navy and from attending Georgetown University.
However, Bannon also became extremely knowledgeable about my work on
Generational Dynamics. I know that Bannon is extremely knowledgeable
about Generational Dynamics, and I know that Bannon is very
knowledgeable about the conclusions of Generational Dynamics. And I
believe (though can't prove) that he actually agrees with those
conclusions -- that we're headed for a Clash of Civilizations world
war, where the UN, Japan, India, Russia and Iran will be pitted
against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim countries. And I
believe that these conclusions are a big part of the motivation for
Thursday's speech.
It's pretty clear to me that Trump's inauguration speech in January
and his speech Thursday in Poland were completely consistent with the
point of view of Generational Dynamics. Let's look at a couple of
issues.
People my age have wondered all our lives how it was possible for
Britain to be so thoroughly fooled by the Nazis and Adolf Hitler for
years. It was perfectly obvious that the Nazi Germany was preparing
for war with Britain, and Winston Churchill repeatedly warned about
it, so how could British leaders have been so oblivious to the danger?
Today we know the answer, as we see how oblivious the West is to the
danger from North Korea and especially from China, even though it's
perfectly obvious.
For Bannon and Trump, this presents the problem that any recognition
of this situation is met with mockery and ridicule by the mainstream
media, just as happened to Winston Churchill. We might call this "the
Neville Chamberlain effect," named after the person who declared
"peace in our time" after meeting with Hitler in 1939.
So I interpret Trump's speech on Thursday as working around these
problems. By giving a speech to a wildly enthusiastic crowd in
Poland, and calling the Polish people "the soul of Europe," he's
attempting to get around the mockery of the mainstream media, and at
the same time show that Angela Merkel's views are not unanimously held
among the G-20 leaders.
As long-time readers know, since 2003, There are some 4,000 articles
on my web site containing hundreds of predictions, all of which have
come true or are trending true. None has turned out to be false.
There have been some cases, such as my analysis of the Mideast peace
process in 2003, Lebanon in 2006, Sri Lanka in 2009, and Iran in the
last ten years, when I've been right and pretty much the rest of the
world has been wrong. There is no other web site, analyst,
journalist, economist or politician in the world with a better
predictive record than mine. A number of people have challenged this
claim, and all have failed.
Generational Dynamics is the only methodology that tells what's
actually going on in the world. Donald Trump may or may not know
what's going on in the world, but Steve Bannon definitely does, and
Bannon is Trump's principal advisor. It's very gratifying to me
personally that Generational Dynamics is guiding the policy of America
at this time of greatest peril in our history.
Trump and Bannon are trying to find a way to defeat the Generational
Dynamics predictions -- by trying to goad China into blocking North
Korea's nuclear development, by trying to challenge China in the South
China Sea with freedom of navigation trips, and by trying to rouse the
West into confronting the existential threats it faces, rather than
falling into the easy Pollyannaish feelings of the Neville Chamberlain
effect.
Trump said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Those heroes remind us that the West was saved with
> the blood of patriots; that each generation must rise up and play
> their part in its defense -- and that every foot of ground, and
> every last inch of civilization, is worth defending with your
> life."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I wish that I could say that Trump and Bannon will find a way to
succeed at preventing the Clash of Civilizations world war, but
Generational Dynamics tells us that's mathematically impossible. We
can't even be certain that the US will survive the coming world war.
The best we can hope for is that we will survive, and that history
will look back at the America as having once again played its part in
saving civilization.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Warsaw, Poland, Clash of Civilizations,
Germany, Angela Merkel, Russia, North Korea, China, Steve Bannon
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
