07-08-2017, 10:16 AM
(07-08-2017, 09:56 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The problem is, when you cite the fact that the relationship with
> China appears to have cooled in the past few months as evidence
> for your theory, but fail to cite the fact that relationships with
> China seemed to be going well a few months ago as evidence against
> your theory then, it looks like you're grasping at straws to
> grasping at straws to find confirmation.
You're the one who's grasping at straws. When the weatherman says
that today is going to be cooler, it doesn't mean he's saying that the
rest of the summer is going to be cooler. On many occasions I've
reported on some country's behavior and described it as
"counter-trend," with the implication that the behavior won't last
long. However, I do tend to favor stories that support the predicted
Generational Dynamics trends, for the obvious reason that I'm writing
about dozens (perhaps hundreds) of countries, and can't write about
everything. And if some country firmly changes direction in a way
that seems to be strongly counter-trend, then I'm not afraid to write
about it, and to analyze why it's happening. No trend goes in a
straight line.
