Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Generational Dynamics World View
*** 10-Jul-17 World View -- Trump administration considers promoting Iran 'regime change'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Split grows between Iran's president Rouhani and hardliners
  • Trump administration considers promoting Iran 'regime change'

****
**** Split grows between Iran's president Rouhani and hardliners
****


[Image: g170709b.jpg]
Iran's IRGC generals salute Supreme Leader Khamenei

When Hassan Rouhani was reelected in Iran's presidential election on
May 19, he clobbered his major opponent. Rouhani won 57% of the vote
in a large turnout, a huge margin against 38% for hardline cleric
Ebrahim Raissi, who was the favored candidate of Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.

Rouhani's victory came from overwhelming support of young people, who
came out in large numbers because of opposition to the hardline
restrictions on dress, free speech, and gender relations.

Iran is in a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s),
when there's a "generation gap" between the generations of traumatized
survivors of the previous generational crisis war (WW II for America,
the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution for Iran) and those in the
generations growing up after the war, with no personal appreciation of
the horrors of that war.

The people in Iran's young post-war generations are now in their 30s,
they are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and they have nothing
in particular against Israel. They do, however, share their parents'
vitriolic hatred for Saudi Arabia. The younger generations support
moderates like Rouhani, and the moderates become more powerful as
their supporters in the younger generations grow older, and more reach
voting age. The older generations support the hardliner geezers like
Khamenei, and the hardliners become weaker as the older generations
retire and die off.

So it should be no surprise that Khamenei and the other hardliners,
including Iran/s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) are panicking
and becoming increasingly desperate, as they see their power slipping
away. Rouhani's overwhelming victory on May 19 was certain to trigger
this panic, as well as desperate reprisals.

The relationship between Rouhani and the IRGC has become increasingly
tense in the last couple of weeks. Rouhani has openly challenged the
IRGC's outsized role in Iran's economy, and has attempted to limit the
IRGC's economic and political influence.

The hardliners have struck back in the last few days. Khamenei has
been comparing Rouhani to Bani Sadr, who was president of Iran in
1980-81, and was impeached by parliament. A prominent hardliner said,
"Those who seek to weaken Iran’s security and the IRGC are enemies of
the people." Judiciary Spokesman Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, a
hardliner, views Rouhani in apocalyptic terms:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Today, the destruction of the Basij [domestic
> security force] ... and the Judiciary has intensified. Looking
> back at past experience, a fitna [sedition, civil strife] is
> ahead."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

All of this happened in the last couple of weeks. It's fairly certain
that the rhetoric will become increasingly vitriolic, as the hardliner
geezers become increasingly panicky, as they realize that they're
losing power to the younger generations and the moderates.

Every generational Awakening era ends with a climax that resolves the
"generation gap" with a victory of either the older or the younger
generations. In America, the climax was Richard Nixon's forced
resignation in 1974.

For that reason, Ejei's prediction of sedition and civil strife is
interesting. Rouhani's democratic victory suggests that the Awakening
era climax will end peacefully, probably with the death or resignation
of Supreme Leader Khamenei. If there is violence, it will probably
come from the hardliners and the IRGC, though I expect any such
violence to fizzle fairly quickly. AEI Iran News (3-July) and AEI Iran News (6-July) and Al Arabiya (Riyadh) and Arab News (Riyadh)

Related Articles

****
**** Trump administration considers promoting Iran 'regime change'
****


Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who speaks regularly with White House
officials about foreign policy, said last month:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The policy of the United States should be regime
> change in Iran. I don’t see how anyone can say America can be
> safe as long as you have in power a theocratic
> despotism."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

Last month, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the following in
answer to a question during testimony to Congress:

> [indent]<QUOTE>Our policy towards Iran is to push back on [its
> regional] hegemony, contain their ability to develop, obviously,
> nuclear weapons, and to work towards support of those elements
> inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of that
> government. ... Those elements are there certainly, as we
> know."<END QUOTE>
[/indent]

These two remarks, among others, have generated suspicion and outrage
among some mainstream media commentators. Some say that this is
another example of president Donald Trump's "boneheaded" or "chaotic"
foreign policy, while others suggest that Trump is planning a coup or
invasion of Iran.

As I've written in the past,
I've
worked in the past with Steve Bannon, one of Trump's closest advisors.
Bannon is extremely familiar with Generational Dynamics and the work
I've done, and I believe that Trump and Bannon are guided by
Generational Dynamics principles and findings. In fact, I become more
and more convinced of this every day, as Trump's foreign policy makes
perfect sense to me from the point of view of Generational Dynamics.
This is in contrast to Obama's foreign policy, when never made any
sense to me at all.

Bannon and Trump are very well aware that "regime change" is coming
with 100% certainty, as an Awakening era climax. Tillerson's remarks
are consistent with that view, and presumably represent the views of
Trump and Bannon. Tillerson was vague about his intentions for regime
change, but I interpret his remarks to mean something on the level of
"meddling" to encourage an awakening climax to occur sooner.

Cotton's remarks, on the other hand, do not make any sense at all.
America is under no threat from the hardliners in Iran. As I've
written many times, the hardliners use daily anti-American and
anti-Western mainly for domestic consumption, without any intention of
attacking anyone in the West, including Israel. If and when Iran
attacks, it will be against Saudi Arabia.

So if we assume that Tillerson's remarks are administration policy,
then what can be done to speed up the Awakening era climax, and
encourage regime change? In my opinion, nothing. Some major event
within Iran, such as the sudden death of Khamenei, might trigger the
climax. (Or, it might not, if Khamenei is replaced by another
hardliner.) I don't believe that "meddling" in Iran's affairs will do
much good, but it probably won't do any real harm. However, anything
more substantial, such as a coup, could badly backfire. Washington Post and Politico (25-June) and Just Security (26-June) and Asia Times

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, Hassan Rouhani,
Ebrahim Raissi, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Bani Sadr, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei,
Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Rex Tillerson, Tom Cotton

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
10-Jul-17 World View -- Trump administration considers promoting Iran 'regime change' - by John J. Xenakis - 07-09-2017, 10:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong Ldr 5 4,800 06-05-2020, 10:55 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes Ldr 2 3,387 03-16-2020, 06:17 AM
Last Post: Ldr
  The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters Mark40 5 4,660 01-08-2020, 08:37 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Generational cycle research Mikebert 15 16,218 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
Video Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. Kinser79 0 3,322 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
Last Post: Kinser79

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 16 Guest(s)