07-10-2017, 09:43 PM
*** 11-Jul-17 World View -- With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** US, Russia, Jordan agree on ceasefire deal for southwest Syria
****
![[Image: g170710b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170710b.jpg)
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg on Friday (AP)
The United States and Russia have brokered a ceasefire in a
"de-escalation zone" in southwest Syria. The agreement was reached in
a meeting between US president Donald Trump and Russia's president
Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg on
Friday. This meeting was the culmination of weeks of secret
negotiations held in Amman, the capital city of Jordan. The zone to
which the ceasefire applies is on Syria's borders with Jordan and
Israel. Jordan and Israel were consulted during the negotiations, and
are included in the agreement. Syria and Iran have agreed to the
deal.
According to the Russian press, the purpose of the de-escalation zone
is to help "disengage" (whatever that means) armed opposition from
groups recognized as terrorists by the UN Security Council. These
include the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh),
al-Qaeda, and al-Qaeda linked groups like Al-Nusra Front (now known as
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham).
According to Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, a monitoring
center will be set up in Amman, Jordan, to be used to oversee the
ceasefire:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We agreed to use a monitoring center established by
> Russia, the US and Jordan in Amman to coordinate all the details
> of functioning of these de-escalation zones."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to Lavrov, many of the details have not be worked out.
However:
> [indent]<QUOTE>In this zone [southeastern Syria, in southern Daraa,
> Quneitra and As-Suwayda provinces] the ceasefire regime will take
> effect on July 9 starting 12:00 Damascus time. The US took an
> obligation that all the militant groups, located there, will
> comply with the ceasefire.
>
> At first, the security around this de-escalation zone will be
> maintained with the help of Russian military police in
> coordination with the Jordanians and Americans."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At the G20 summit on Friday, US secretary of state Rex Tillerson said
at a news conference:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think this is our first indication of the US and
> Russia being able to work together in Syria, and as a result of
> that we had a very lengthy discussion regarding other areas in
> Syria that we can continue to work together on to de-escalate the
> areas."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The ceasefire took effect on Sunday at noon, Damascus time. Syrian
ceasefires in the past have usually fizzled within a couple of weeks,
but as of Monday evening, this ceasefire appears to be holding, with
only scattered violations. Russia Today and Russia Today and Times Live (South Africa)
Related Articles
****
**** Israel OKs ceasefire, but expresses severe misgivings
****
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave qualified approval of
the ceasefire agreement:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Israel will welcome a genuine ceasefire in Syria but
> this ceasefire must not enable the establishment of a military
> presence by Iran and its proxies in Syria in general and in
> southern Syria in particular.
>
> [We] had deep discussions about this last week with US Secretary
> of State Tillerson and with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both
> told me that they understand Israel’s position and will take our
> demands into account. ...
>
> [These demands include the following:] Prevent the strengthening
> of Hezbollah via Syria, with emphasis on the acquisition of
> precision weapons, prevent Hezbollah – or Iranian forces – from
> establishing a ground presence along our border, and prevent the
> establishment of an Iranian military presence in Syria as a
> whole."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to some reports, Netanyahu is opposed Russia's military
police taking sole responsibility for monitoring the ceasefire along
Syria's border, and is demanding that United States forces be
involved. Reading between the lines of Lavrov's statement (quoted
above), Russia appears to concur.
Although Israel is committed to avoid getting involved in Syria's war,
Israel has targeted Syrian weapons convoys headed for Hezbollah to be
used against Israel, and has targeted Syrian launchers when mortar
shells from Syria landed in the Golan Heights. Since Russia is such
a close ally of Syria and Hezbollah, Israel is insisting that Russia
not be the sole guarantor of the ceasefire. Israel National News and Reuters and YNet News and Israel Rising
Related Articles
****
**** With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war
****
For months, Russia and the Syrian regime have complained that
America's military presence in Syria is a violation of international
law, because unlike Russian forces, American forces have never been
invited into Syria by the Syrian regime.
The response is that with Syria's ISIS conducting terror attacks
around the world, including the US and Europe, and with Syria flooding
Europe with millions of refugees, the West is perfectly justified
under international law to enter Syria and kill off ISIS, for its own
protection and self-defense. There's no reason why the West should
just sit and wait for ISIS to conduct the next terror attack, since
obviously al-Assad is incapable of stopping ISIS, and may be promoting
the terror attacks on Europe.
These arguments may now be mooted by the ceasefire agreement. The
agreement has been approved by the Syrian regime, and it specifically
invites American forces into Syria. Therefore, I assume that
America's military in Syria is fully supported by international law.
However, the other side of that observation is that American forces
are getting more deeply involved in the war in Syria. If the war
settles down into a nice friendly peace, then that would be no
problem. However, it's far more likely that the current "ceasefire"
is merely serving to allow all the various forces -- the Russians, the
Syrian regime, Hezbollah, the Iranian forces, the remnants of ISIS,
al-Nusra, the Free Syrian Army, the Turks, the Kurdish People’s
Protection Unit (YPG), and probably others -- to replenish their
weapons stores and reposition their forces, in preparation for the
next battle after the ceasefire collapses. This is particularly true
in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria, which will be a major battleground
in the months to come.
There has been the usual mainstream media criticism of president
Donald Trump for having a chaotic foreign policy, and for working
closely with Russia's president Vladimir Putin, whom many Americans
see as an enemy.
For example, Richard Haas, president of the Council of Foreign
Relations, was interviewed on the BBC on Monday, and was asked why
this president "has been reluctant to be harsh on Russia and Putin."
His response:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that's still a mystery for which we don't
> have an answer. Whether it has something to do with that, or as
> you know there's any number of forms of speculation. All I can
> say is after a couple of years, Mr. Trump is has staked out what
> you would call a consistently benign or sanguine view towards
> Russian behavior. I don't understand it on the merits, so like a
> lot of other people, I keep wondering whether there's something
> that lies behind it, and if so what? ...
>
> I do not see [the Russians] as a natural partner of the United
> States in most situations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Haas is wondering "whether there's something that lies behind it," and
as regular readers are aware, there is definitely something behind it.
Trump's foreign policy is not chaotic at all, but is completely
consistent and principled, because his close advisor Steve Bannon
deeply understands Generational Dynamics theory, and they are guided
by that theory.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, America and the West
will be aligned with India, Russia and Iran, while China will be
aligned with Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. The Trump
administration's "consistently benign and sanguine view" of Russia is
guided by this analysis, and the fact that Russia will be our ally.
That's not to say that one can be sanguine about the situation in the
Mideast. Everyone is united now in their determination to defeat ISIS
in Mosul, Iraq, and in Raqqa, Syria. The Iraqi military declared
"Mission Accomplished!" on Monday in Mosul, and victory in Raqqa is
expected within weeks. After that, the increasingly vicious
Shia-Sunni split will become more exposed, and any one of the warring
parties in Syria may decide to take action. Washington Post/AP and Al Monitor and LA Times
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vladimir Putin, Russia, G20, Hamburg,
Syria, de-escalation zone, Amman, Jordan, Iran,
Sergei Lavrov, Daraa, Quneitra, As-Suwayda,
Rex Tillerson, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Richard Haas, Steve Bannon
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- US, Russia, Jordan agree on ceasefire deal for southwest Syria
- Israel OKs ceasefire, but expresses severe misgivings
- With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war
****
**** US, Russia, Jordan agree on ceasefire deal for southwest Syria
****
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting at the G20 summit in Hamburg on Friday (AP)
The United States and Russia have brokered a ceasefire in a
"de-escalation zone" in southwest Syria. The agreement was reached in
a meeting between US president Donald Trump and Russia's president
Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg on
Friday. This meeting was the culmination of weeks of secret
negotiations held in Amman, the capital city of Jordan. The zone to
which the ceasefire applies is on Syria's borders with Jordan and
Israel. Jordan and Israel were consulted during the negotiations, and
are included in the agreement. Syria and Iran have agreed to the
deal.
According to the Russian press, the purpose of the de-escalation zone
is to help "disengage" (whatever that means) armed opposition from
groups recognized as terrorists by the UN Security Council. These
include the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh),
al-Qaeda, and al-Qaeda linked groups like Al-Nusra Front (now known as
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham).
According to Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, a monitoring
center will be set up in Amman, Jordan, to be used to oversee the
ceasefire:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We agreed to use a monitoring center established by
> Russia, the US and Jordan in Amman to coordinate all the details
> of functioning of these de-escalation zones."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to Lavrov, many of the details have not be worked out.
However:
> [indent]<QUOTE>In this zone [southeastern Syria, in southern Daraa,
> Quneitra and As-Suwayda provinces] the ceasefire regime will take
> effect on July 9 starting 12:00 Damascus time. The US took an
> obligation that all the militant groups, located there, will
> comply with the ceasefire.
>
> At first, the security around this de-escalation zone will be
> maintained with the help of Russian military police in
> coordination with the Jordanians and Americans."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
At the G20 summit on Friday, US secretary of state Rex Tillerson said
at a news conference:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think this is our first indication of the US and
> Russia being able to work together in Syria, and as a result of
> that we had a very lengthy discussion regarding other areas in
> Syria that we can continue to work together on to de-escalate the
> areas."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The ceasefire took effect on Sunday at noon, Damascus time. Syrian
ceasefires in the past have usually fizzled within a couple of weeks,
but as of Monday evening, this ceasefire appears to be holding, with
only scattered violations. Russia Today and Russia Today and Times Live (South Africa)
Related Articles
- Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan (06-Jul-2017)
- Iran scores strategic victory in Syria with land route from Tehran to Mediterranean (20-Jun-2017)
- US shoots down Syrian warplane, as Iran launches missiles into Syria (19-Jun-2017)
- US and Iran headed for military confrontation in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria (09-Jun-2017)
****
**** Israel OKs ceasefire, but expresses severe misgivings
****
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave qualified approval of
the ceasefire agreement:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Israel will welcome a genuine ceasefire in Syria but
> this ceasefire must not enable the establishment of a military
> presence by Iran and its proxies in Syria in general and in
> southern Syria in particular.
>
> [We] had deep discussions about this last week with US Secretary
> of State Tillerson and with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both
> told me that they understand Israel’s position and will take our
> demands into account. ...
>
> [These demands include the following:] Prevent the strengthening
> of Hezbollah via Syria, with emphasis on the acquisition of
> precision weapons, prevent Hezbollah – or Iranian forces – from
> establishing a ground presence along our border, and prevent the
> establishment of an Iranian military presence in Syria as a
> whole."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
According to some reports, Netanyahu is opposed Russia's military
police taking sole responsibility for monitoring the ceasefire along
Syria's border, and is demanding that United States forces be
involved. Reading between the lines of Lavrov's statement (quoted
above), Russia appears to concur.
Although Israel is committed to avoid getting involved in Syria's war,
Israel has targeted Syrian weapons convoys headed for Hezbollah to be
used against Israel, and has targeted Syrian launchers when mortar
shells from Syria landed in the Golan Heights. Since Russia is such
a close ally of Syria and Hezbollah, Israel is insisting that Russia
not be the sole guarantor of the ceasefire. Israel National News and Reuters and YNet News and Israel Rising
Related Articles
- Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus (28-Apr-2017)
- Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan (19-Mar-2017)
- Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
****
**** With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war
****
For months, Russia and the Syrian regime have complained that
America's military presence in Syria is a violation of international
law, because unlike Russian forces, American forces have never been
invited into Syria by the Syrian regime.
The response is that with Syria's ISIS conducting terror attacks
around the world, including the US and Europe, and with Syria flooding
Europe with millions of refugees, the West is perfectly justified
under international law to enter Syria and kill off ISIS, for its own
protection and self-defense. There's no reason why the West should
just sit and wait for ISIS to conduct the next terror attack, since
obviously al-Assad is incapable of stopping ISIS, and may be promoting
the terror attacks on Europe.
These arguments may now be mooted by the ceasefire agreement. The
agreement has been approved by the Syrian regime, and it specifically
invites American forces into Syria. Therefore, I assume that
America's military in Syria is fully supported by international law.
However, the other side of that observation is that American forces
are getting more deeply involved in the war in Syria. If the war
settles down into a nice friendly peace, then that would be no
problem. However, it's far more likely that the current "ceasefire"
is merely serving to allow all the various forces -- the Russians, the
Syrian regime, Hezbollah, the Iranian forces, the remnants of ISIS,
al-Nusra, the Free Syrian Army, the Turks, the Kurdish People’s
Protection Unit (YPG), and probably others -- to replenish their
weapons stores and reposition their forces, in preparation for the
next battle after the ceasefire collapses. This is particularly true
in Deir az-Zour in eastern Syria, which will be a major battleground
in the months to come.
There has been the usual mainstream media criticism of president
Donald Trump for having a chaotic foreign policy, and for working
closely with Russia's president Vladimir Putin, whom many Americans
see as an enemy.
For example, Richard Haas, president of the Council of Foreign
Relations, was interviewed on the BBC on Monday, and was asked why
this president "has been reluctant to be harsh on Russia and Putin."
His response:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that's still a mystery for which we don't
> have an answer. Whether it has something to do with that, or as
> you know there's any number of forms of speculation. All I can
> say is after a couple of years, Mr. Trump is has staked out what
> you would call a consistently benign or sanguine view towards
> Russian behavior. I don't understand it on the merits, so like a
> lot of other people, I keep wondering whether there's something
> that lies behind it, and if so what? ...
>
> I do not see [the Russians] as a natural partner of the United
> States in most situations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Haas is wondering "whether there's something that lies behind it," and
as regular readers are aware, there is definitely something behind it.
Trump's foreign policy is not chaotic at all, but is completely
consistent and principled, because his close advisor Steve Bannon
deeply understands Generational Dynamics theory, and they are guided
by that theory.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, America and the West
will be aligned with India, Russia and Iran, while China will be
aligned with Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. The Trump
administration's "consistently benign and sanguine view" of Russia is
guided by this analysis, and the fact that Russia will be our ally.
That's not to say that one can be sanguine about the situation in the
Mideast. Everyone is united now in their determination to defeat ISIS
in Mosul, Iraq, and in Raqqa, Syria. The Iraqi military declared
"Mission Accomplished!" on Monday in Mosul, and victory in Raqqa is
expected within weeks. After that, the increasingly vicious
Shia-Sunni split will become more exposed, and any one of the warring
parties in Syria may decide to take action. Washington Post/AP and Al Monitor and LA Times
Related Articles
- Trump administration considers promoting Iran 'regime change' (10-Jul-2017)
- Donald Trump's speech in Warsaw Poland evokes the Clash of Civilizations (07-Jul-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vladimir Putin, Russia, G20, Hamburg,
Syria, de-escalation zone, Amman, Jordan, Iran,
Sergei Lavrov, Daraa, Quneitra, As-Suwayda,
Rex Tillerson, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Richard Haas, Steve Bannon
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
