07-29-2017, 10:43 PM
*** 30-Jul-17 World View -- South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** North Korea tests a ballistic missile capable of reaching US mainland
****
![[Image: g170729b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170729b.jpg)
People in Pyongyang, North Korea's capital city, cheer at the announcement of the missile launch on Saturday (AP)
The ballistic missile that North Korea launched early on Saturday
morning was sent from a truck-mounted mobile launcher. The missile
flew for about 45 minutes, and reached an altitude of 3,700 km. The
missile landed in Japanese waters in the Sea of Japan.
The missile was launched almost vertically, so that it would reach a
high altitude, but would not travel beyond the Sea of Japan. If used
in an actual attack, it would be launched closer to a 45 degree angle
which could carry it possibly as far as the United States mainland,
which would make it an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Some analysts are saying that missile could reach Los Angeles, Denver
and Chicago. North Korean media claimed it could reach any target in
the United States. Analysts doubt that this is true, but North
Korea's missile capabilities are growing more rapidly than previously
predicted, so the next missile development may be able to reach more
targets.
The next challenge for North Korea will be to develop a nuclear weapon
small enough to fit in the nose of the ICBM. Many analysts believe
that the North Koreans will have that capability within a year or two.
Guardian (London) and Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and NY Daily News
****
**** South Korea's president Moon approves new THAAD development
****
In a sharp reversal of policy, South Korea's president Moon Jae-in
ordered talks on Saturday morning to consider permitting more units in
the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense
system, deployed by the United States military.
Later reports indicate that additional THAAD units have been approved.
Four additional launchers will be deployed, in addition to the two
launchers that have already been deployed.
South Korea's previous conservative president, Park Geun-hye, approved
the initial deployment, scheduled for the end of 2017. However, the
schedule was speeded up for two reasons -- because of North Korea's
aggressive development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and
because polls indicated that Park would lose the presidential
election. For that reason, the first THAAD units began deployment in
March.
China reacted furiously to the deployment, even though THAAD is a
purely defensive weapon, whose purpose is to knock incoming missiles
out of the sky. However, THAAD comes with an extremely powerful radar
system that would give the US early warning of a surprise Chinese
missile attack on the US, which would reduce China's ability to launch
a surprise missile attack. So China retaliated harshly against South
Korea, banning South Korean goods for sale in China, banning South
Korean pop stars and entertainers, and banning travel agencies from
selling packaged tours to South Korea.
At times like this I always like to respond to the commonly held
belief that there won't be a war because war is bad for business. If
that were true, there would never be any wars. Actually, the opposite
is true: If two countries have a trading and business relationship,
then trade becomes just another weapon of war, as we're seeing in this
case.
President Moon Jae-in is far more liberal than his predecessor, and
when he took office in May, he put a hold on further THAAD deployment,
and also announced that he would seek peace negotiations with North
Korea. North Korea has completely rejected the peace negotiations,
and repudiated them with even more aggressive ballistic missile
development.
So Moon has now reportedly approved another set of THAAD launchers.
The THAAD system is deployed in southern Korea. According to
analysts, it won't prevent a North Korean missile strike on South
Korea's capital city, Seoul, which is only a few miles from the North
Korean border, but THAAD will provide protection for southern Korea.
This is important because in the case of a new Korean war, American
troops would enter from the south, and so THAAD would provide
protection for them. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters
Related Articles
****
**** What could trigger another world war?
****
One does not need Generational Dynamics to see that the world is
becoming increasingly unstable, and is far less stable than it was 15
years ago. Still, some people think that world wars have been
abolished, and one person recently wrote to me saying that a world war
can't happen because country leaders are "rational actors"!!
There's no way to predict the scenario that will start World War III,
since there are so many possibilities, but we can look at the
scenarios that started previous wars and try to learn lessons from
them.
These kinds of situations would not have triggered a war during the
1990s because that was a generational Unraveling period, when the
world was still being run by the Silent generation, survivors of World
War II who had the sense to make sure it wouldn't happen again.
Today, in a generational Crisis era, those generations of sensible
survivors are all gone, and nationalism and xenophobia are increasing
rapidly in countries around the world, so that situations like those
described above could easily trigger a world war.
Related Articles
****
**** War between Russia and China
****
There's one more possibility that's rarely mentioned because most
people have the mistaken belief that Russia and China are allies. But
they're only allies in the sense of "honor among thieves," where they
support each other in the invasion and annexation of other countries'
territories, following Hitler's example in 1939.
The Russians and the Chinese have hated each other at least since the
1200s. The 1206 victory of the Mongols over the Han Chinese still has
enormous impact on Chinese thinking today. Han Chinese adopted much
from Mongol culture, and many aspects of the two cultures merged --
culturally, not ethnically.
After the Mongols conquered the Han Chinese, they went on to attack
the Russians. The Russian culture definitely did NOT merge with the
Mongol/Chinese culture, and those hatreds exist today. In fact,
Russia and China did have a border war in 1969, though it didn't last
long. But today, in a generational Crisis era, it could spiral into
full-scale war.
In 2014, Russia held the massive Vostok military exercises in the Far
East, explaining that the military drills were necessary to prepare
for war with the United States. And yet, the assets deployed during
this exercise were more consistent with preparing for a defense of the
Far East, a region that America would be unlikely to invade if it
wanted to invade Russia at all. The only state actor that against
which such a defense is needed is China. And so it appears that
Russia and China claim that they're each preparing for war with the
United States, but they're also preparing for war with each other.
In early June 2017, Russian media reported that the powerful
road-mobile 9K720 Iskander-M missile system was installed in Russia's
Eastern Military District. This joins three other major missile
installations that took place in 2013, 2015 and 2016, respectively.
These installations have very limited ability to strike American or
Japanese targets. Their only logical purpose is to strike China.
So it seems evident that Russia is preparing for war with China, and
that could be the trigger for World War III.
As I've been saying for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
world is headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war pitting the
United States, the West, India, Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim countries. National Interest
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Moon Jae-in, Park Geun-hye, Russia, India, Turkey, Taiwan,
Mongol Invasion, War of the Spanish Succession,
Pakistan, Salman Taseer, Revolutionary War
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- North Korea tests a ballistic missile capable of reaching US mainland
- South Korea's president Moon approves new THAAD development
- What could trigger another world war?
- War between Russia and China
****
**** North Korea tests a ballistic missile capable of reaching US mainland
****
People in Pyongyang, North Korea's capital city, cheer at the announcement of the missile launch on Saturday (AP)
The ballistic missile that North Korea launched early on Saturday
morning was sent from a truck-mounted mobile launcher. The missile
flew for about 45 minutes, and reached an altitude of 3,700 km. The
missile landed in Japanese waters in the Sea of Japan.
The missile was launched almost vertically, so that it would reach a
high altitude, but would not travel beyond the Sea of Japan. If used
in an actual attack, it would be launched closer to a 45 degree angle
which could carry it possibly as far as the United States mainland,
which would make it an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Some analysts are saying that missile could reach Los Angeles, Denver
and Chicago. North Korean media claimed it could reach any target in
the United States. Analysts doubt that this is true, but North
Korea's missile capabilities are growing more rapidly than previously
predicted, so the next missile development may be able to reach more
targets.
The next challenge for North Korea will be to develop a nuclear weapon
small enough to fit in the nose of the ICBM. Many analysts believe
that the North Koreans will have that capability within a year or two.
Guardian (London) and Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and NY Daily News
****
**** South Korea's president Moon approves new THAAD development
****
In a sharp reversal of policy, South Korea's president Moon Jae-in
ordered talks on Saturday morning to consider permitting more units in
the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense
system, deployed by the United States military.
Later reports indicate that additional THAAD units have been approved.
Four additional launchers will be deployed, in addition to the two
launchers that have already been deployed.
South Korea's previous conservative president, Park Geun-hye, approved
the initial deployment, scheduled for the end of 2017. However, the
schedule was speeded up for two reasons -- because of North Korea's
aggressive development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and
because polls indicated that Park would lose the presidential
election. For that reason, the first THAAD units began deployment in
March.
China reacted furiously to the deployment, even though THAAD is a
purely defensive weapon, whose purpose is to knock incoming missiles
out of the sky. However, THAAD comes with an extremely powerful radar
system that would give the US early warning of a surprise Chinese
missile attack on the US, which would reduce China's ability to launch
a surprise missile attack. So China retaliated harshly against South
Korea, banning South Korean goods for sale in China, banning South
Korean pop stars and entertainers, and banning travel agencies from
selling packaged tours to South Korea.
At times like this I always like to respond to the commonly held
belief that there won't be a war because war is bad for business. If
that were true, there would never be any wars. Actually, the opposite
is true: If two countries have a trading and business relationship,
then trade becomes just another weapon of war, as we're seeing in this
case.
President Moon Jae-in is far more liberal than his predecessor, and
when he took office in May, he put a hold on further THAAD deployment,
and also announced that he would seek peace negotiations with North
Korea. North Korea has completely rejected the peace negotiations,
and repudiated them with even more aggressive ballistic missile
development.
So Moon has now reportedly approved another set of THAAD launchers.
The THAAD system is deployed in southern Korea. According to
analysts, it won't prevent a North Korean missile strike on South
Korea's capital city, Seoul, which is only a few miles from the North
Korean border, but THAAD will provide protection for southern Korea.
This is important because in the case of a new Korean war, American
troops would enter from the south, and so THAAD would provide
protection for them. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters
Related Articles
- China promises retaliation over surprise deployment of THAAD in South Korea (08-Mar-2017)
- China's fury grows over South Korea's plan to deploy THAAD anti-missile system (10-Aug-2016)
****
**** What could trigger another world war?
****
One does not need Generational Dynamics to see that the world is
becoming increasingly unstable, and is far less stable than it was 15
years ago. Still, some people think that world wars have been
abolished, and one person recently wrote to me saying that a world war
can't happen because country leaders are "rational actors"!!
There's no way to predict the scenario that will start World War III,
since there are so many possibilities, but we can look at the
scenarios that started previous wars and try to learn lessons from
them.
- WW II did not begin with the Anschluss of Nazi Germany and
Austria, nor did it begin with the Nazi invasion Czechoslovakia.
Hitler was using the "salami slicing technique" of one conquest after
another, each one thought to be too small to trigger an all-out war.
Nonetheless, when the Nazis invaded Poland, Britain felt it had to
intervene.
Today, China is using the same "salami slicing technique" in the South
China Sea and elsewhere, as it plans to take control of their entire
region and control all access to it. At some point, China will take a
step too far, and Vietnam or the Philippines or India or Australia or
the United States will feel obligated to oppose the Chinese.
Another example is that North Korea is using a kind of "salami slicing
technique" to develop a nuclear-tipped ICBM that could reach American
soil. At some point, North Korea may conduct one more nuclear weapon
test or one more ballistic missile test that will cause the US or
China to decide to do something to stop further nuclear development,
and that could trigger a war.
However, a "small action" doesn't always trigger a world war. There
are numerous examples -- US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11, US
invasion of Iraq over fear of WMDs (58 year hypothesis), Israel's
invasion of Lebanon because of Hezbollah's actions (58 year
hypothesis), Saudi Arabia's invasion of Yemen, the proxy war in Syria,
Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea, Russia's invasion of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, and so forth.
- The Pacific theatre of WW II began when Imperial Japan attacked
Pearl Harbor and other American targets. Today, China may decide to
launch a direct attack on the US and/or India.
- WW I began when a high school student decided to shoot and kill
the archduke of another country. We can imagine many variations of
this today.
In 2011, Salman Taseer, the governor of Pakistan's Punjab province,
tried to reform the blasphemy laws, and was shot dead by his own
bodyguard. So, if an official from India had been visiting Taseer
that day, that same bodyguard might have decided to shoot and kill the
Indian official, and that might have triggered retaliation or a war.
As another example, in December of last year in Ankara, a member of
Turkey's security forces shot and killed Russia's ambassador to
Turkey. Russia decided not to retaliate, but they might have.
As a final example, one country's "special forces" might infiltrate
another country and kill the country's leader, and that could trigger
retaliation and a war.
- The War of the Spanish Succession was a kind of "world war" that
ran from 1701-14 and devastated Europe. It began with a legal issue:
The death of the King of Spain, and a will that bequeathed Spain to
the grandson of the King of France, triggering the war.
Today, some sort of legal issue in Taiwan might appear to Beijing to
be moving Taiwan in the direction of independence, which would trigger
a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Or we're seeing this crazy blockade of Qatar by four Arab countries,
based on little more than legalisms. That could trigger some sort of
war.
- Many wars have begun with popular national rebellions. There's
America's Revolutionary War, Russia's Bolshevik Revolution, China's
Taiping Rebellion, China's Communist Revolution, Iran's Great Islamic
Revolution, the French Revolution, and so forth. This could happen
today in countries like China, Russia, Egypt, and so forth.
- Some country (China) could trigger one of America's mutual defense
treaties. The United States has some sort of mutual defense treaty
with many countries: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the
Philippines, the Marshall Islands, the ANZUS agreement with Australia
and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement
with all of Europe.
These kinds of situations would not have triggered a war during the
1990s because that was a generational Unraveling period, when the
world was still being run by the Silent generation, survivors of World
War II who had the sense to make sure it wouldn't happen again.
Today, in a generational Crisis era, those generations of sensible
survivors are all gone, and nationalism and xenophobia are increasing
rapidly in countries around the world, so that situations like those
described above could easily trigger a world war.
Related Articles
****
**** War between Russia and China
****
There's one more possibility that's rarely mentioned because most
people have the mistaken belief that Russia and China are allies. But
they're only allies in the sense of "honor among thieves," where they
support each other in the invasion and annexation of other countries'
territories, following Hitler's example in 1939.
The Russians and the Chinese have hated each other at least since the
1200s. The 1206 victory of the Mongols over the Han Chinese still has
enormous impact on Chinese thinking today. Han Chinese adopted much
from Mongol culture, and many aspects of the two cultures merged --
culturally, not ethnically.
After the Mongols conquered the Han Chinese, they went on to attack
the Russians. The Russian culture definitely did NOT merge with the
Mongol/Chinese culture, and those hatreds exist today. In fact,
Russia and China did have a border war in 1969, though it didn't last
long. But today, in a generational Crisis era, it could spiral into
full-scale war.
In 2014, Russia held the massive Vostok military exercises in the Far
East, explaining that the military drills were necessary to prepare
for war with the United States. And yet, the assets deployed during
this exercise were more consistent with preparing for a defense of the
Far East, a region that America would be unlikely to invade if it
wanted to invade Russia at all. The only state actor that against
which such a defense is needed is China. And so it appears that
Russia and China claim that they're each preparing for war with the
United States, but they're also preparing for war with each other.
In early June 2017, Russian media reported that the powerful
road-mobile 9K720 Iskander-M missile system was installed in Russia's
Eastern Military District. This joins three other major missile
installations that took place in 2013, 2015 and 2016, respectively.
These installations have very limited ability to strike American or
Japanese targets. Their only logical purpose is to strike China.
So it seems evident that Russia is preparing for war with China, and
that could be the trigger for World War III.
As I've been saying for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
world is headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war pitting the
United States, the West, India, Russia and Iran versus China, Pakistan
and the Sunni Muslim countries. National Interest
Related Articles
- China and Russia in military competition in Tajikistan (06-Dec-2016)
- Russia, India, Japan prepare for war with China (13-Jul-2017)
- Mongol invasion of China in 1206 has impact today (06-Dec-2010)
- Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue (21-Jun-2015)
- Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria (26-Sep-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD,
Moon Jae-in, Park Geun-hye, Russia, India, Turkey, Taiwan,
Mongol Invasion, War of the Spanish Succession,
Pakistan, Salman Taseer, Revolutionary War
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
