08-05-2017, 10:05 PM
*** 6-Aug-17 World View -- China takes control of Sri Lanka's strategically valuable Hambantota seaport
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China takes control of Sri Lanka's strategically valuable Hambantota seaport
****
![[Image: g170805b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170805b.jpg)
Sri Lankan citizens watch Chinese dredging ships in Hambantota port (Reuters)
Last week, Sri Lanka's government signed an agreement giving China a
99-year lease to use Sri Lanka's strategically valuable southern
Hambantota seaport. The seaport is on the main shipping route from
Asia to Europe, and oversees the Indian ocean all the way to
Antarctica. In addition, China will hold a 70% stake in a joint
venture to handle the commercial operations of the port.
The deal has been extremely controversial for several reasons:
The deal triggered violent protests earlier this year by Buddhist
monks and anti-government protesters, but there were few protests when
the deal was finally signed on July 29.
The agreement is considered a very bad deal for Sri Lanka, even by
those politicians who felt that Sri Lanka had no choice but to go
ahead with it as part of a debt repayment scheme. In 2009, China
invested $1.2 billion in the Hambantota seaport. Sri Lanka had
expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the port, but the
slowdown in trade throughout the entire region in the last few years
has meant that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the debt, and now
China has essentially taken over the port in lieu of repayment of the
debt.
The deal has generated a great deal of anger by people who are
accusing China of having purposely set a "debt trap" in 2009, knowing
that Sri Lanka would be unable to repay the debt, and would be forced
to give away Sri Lankan assets to China. Container Management Magazine and Asian Tribune and Colombo Gazette and LankaWeb
Related Articles
****
**** India reacts to China's One-Belt One-Road and threat of war over Doklam
****
Recently, China launched a naval military base in Djibouti in eastern
Africa as the endpoint to its "string of pearls," commercial
deep-water ports in the Indian Ocean that China could use in time of
wars. Many of these ports were built and often are operated by
Chinese companies. These include deep-water ports in Sri Lanka, in
Colombo and Hambantota; Pakistan, in Gwadar and Karachi; Myanmar, in
Sittwe; and the Seychelles, in Port Victoria. The Gwadar port in
Pakistan is expected to be upgraded to a full Chinese military base
soon.
These are all part of China's $1 trillion "One Belt One Road" (OBOR)
initiative consisting of an overland Economic Belt and a Maritime Silk
Road. Although these infrastructure projects are supposed to be for
commercial use, Indian officials believe that China is preparing for
war by surrounding India with the Hambantota port and other ports, as
well as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that appears to be
impinging on the India-government portion of Kashmir. And this is
occurring at a time when China and India are close to a border war
over the Doklam Plateau in Bhutan.
India is attempting to match China's influence in the region by
executing its own major infrastructure projects. India is involved in
joint economic and technical projects with Bangladesh, Bhutan and
Nepal. India is also investing heavily in Africa to compete with
China there.
India is part of the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) which links
India with Iran, the Central Asian countries, and Russia. Part of
NSTC is the port in Chabahar, which is on the coast of Iran near
Pakistan. It's a direct competitor to China's Gwadar port in
Pakistan. Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in shipping
goods to Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe.
However, India's projects are generally much smaller than China's, and
are often only in the planning stages. For example, India invested
$54 billion in Africa and Indo-African trade in 2016, while China
invested $194 billion. Menafn (Middle East North Africa Financial Network)
Related Articles
****
**** Threat of India-China border war at Doklam Plateau grows
****
We've reported several times on the growing tensions in Bhutan's
Doklam Plateau, which China would like to invade and annex, but is
being blocked by India forces, although no shots have yet been fired.
As we reported yesterday,
China is
threatening war over Doklam, and believes they will "annihilate"
India's army.
Many analysts, including some officials in India, believe that sooner
or later India will back down. However, a web site reader pointed out
that it's a lot more serious than a simple border dispute over a small
piece of land:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Indians will definitely fight, because if they
> don't push back now, they will wake up and find Eastern India cut
> off from New Delhi. This is a red line the Indians will never
> allow to be crossed. And this is where it gets really
> dangerous. China doesn't need to steal land from Bhutan to
> survive, but India needs to preserve the Siliguri Corridor because
> India has no choice but to defend it if it wants to preserve the
> country. India will fight. It's the Chinese who are
> miscalculating."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The Siliguri Corridor, also known as the "Chicken's Neck," is a land
corridor that connects western and eastern India. If China takes
control of the Doklam Plateau, they will also take control of the
Chicken's Neck corridor, and India will be effectively split into two
pieces.
The Doklam Plateau conflict has turned into an existential threat for
both countries, and it seems that neither China nor India will back
down. There's also a hard deadline in getting the issue resolved, as
there's a Chinese "People's Congress" in November, and China's
president Xi Jinping will look extremely weak if there's still a
standoff.
And according to the somewhat hysterical Global Times article tht I
quoted yesterday, the Chinese say that they will "annihilate" the
Indian army, and it wouldn't surprise me if they actually believe
that. Needless to day, the Indians don't agree. And it's worth
remembering that the Saudis expected to annihilate the Houthis when
they invaded Yemen in 2014.
Finally, for those readers who enjoy a little black humor, we have a
remarkable analysis appearing Sri Lanka's Daily Mirror, who has this
response to people who fear war between China and India:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Have no such fears. With certainty, it can be said
> that nuclear powers will not go to war. Take heart from
> Wednesday’s US statement offering peace talks with North Korea. It
> came days after the maverick regime carried out a successful test
> of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of hitting the US
> mainland.
>
> The deterrent value of nuclear weapons is one of the key factors
> why the Third World War has still not happened. For nearly two
> months, China and India have been bogged down in a face-off in the
> Himalayas. But neither wants to start a major war. Nuclear powers
> may find themselves in warlike situations, but will not go to war,
> unless insane leaders take control of affairs. This is why China
> and the US have not gone to war over the South China Sea
> disputes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I know that regular readers of my Generational Dynamics articles will
have a good laugh over this.
However, with both India and China facing an existential crisis over
the Doklam Plateau, the situation is a disaster in the making, unless
someone can figure out a face-saving formula that both sides can agree
to in the next month or so. India Times (3-July) and Daily Mirror (Sri Lanka)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Sri Lanka, Hambantota port,
Gwadar port, Pakistan, Djibouti, One Belt One Road, OBOR,
North-South Transport Corridor, NSTC, Chabahar port, Iran,
Bhutan, Doklam Plateau, Siliguri Corridor, Chicken's Neck,
Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China takes control of Sri Lanka's strategically valuable Hambantota seaport
- India reacts to China's One-Belt One-Road and threat of war over Doklam
- Threat of India-China border war at Doklam Plateau grows
****
**** China takes control of Sri Lanka's strategically valuable Hambantota seaport
****
Sri Lankan citizens watch Chinese dredging ships in Hambantota port (Reuters)
Last week, Sri Lanka's government signed an agreement giving China a
99-year lease to use Sri Lanka's strategically valuable southern
Hambantota seaport. The seaport is on the main shipping route from
Asia to Europe, and oversees the Indian ocean all the way to
Antarctica. In addition, China will hold a 70% stake in a joint
venture to handle the commercial operations of the port.
The deal has been extremely controversial for several reasons:
- Sri Lanka is giving China a substantial peace of Sri Lanka's
soil, undermining the country's sovereignty.
- China also receives a 99-year lease on 15,000 acres (6,070
hectares) of Sri Lankan land adjacent to the port to develop an
industrial zone.
- Thousands of Sri Lankan families will be displaced from their
homes.
- Thousands of Chinese families will migrate and settle in the
adjacent land, forming a permanent Chinese enclave in Sri Lanka.
- There are widespread concerns that China will use the port as a
military base. However, under local and international pressure, the
agreement was modified so that China promised to use the port only for
commercial purposes.
The deal triggered violent protests earlier this year by Buddhist
monks and anti-government protesters, but there were few protests when
the deal was finally signed on July 29.
The agreement is considered a very bad deal for Sri Lanka, even by
those politicians who felt that Sri Lanka had no choice but to go
ahead with it as part of a debt repayment scheme. In 2009, China
invested $1.2 billion in the Hambantota seaport. Sri Lanka had
expected to repay the debt through profits earned by the port, but the
slowdown in trade throughout the entire region in the last few years
has meant that Sri Lanka has been unable to repay the debt, and now
China has essentially taken over the port in lieu of repayment of the
debt.
The deal has generated a great deal of anger by people who are
accusing China of having purposely set a "debt trap" in 2009, knowing
that Sri Lanka would be unable to repay the debt, and would be forced
to give away Sri Lankan assets to China. Container Management Magazine and Asian Tribune and Colombo Gazette and LankaWeb
Related Articles
****
**** India reacts to China's One-Belt One-Road and threat of war over Doklam
****
Recently, China launched a naval military base in Djibouti in eastern
Africa as the endpoint to its "string of pearls," commercial
deep-water ports in the Indian Ocean that China could use in time of
wars. Many of these ports were built and often are operated by
Chinese companies. These include deep-water ports in Sri Lanka, in
Colombo and Hambantota; Pakistan, in Gwadar and Karachi; Myanmar, in
Sittwe; and the Seychelles, in Port Victoria. The Gwadar port in
Pakistan is expected to be upgraded to a full Chinese military base
soon.
These are all part of China's $1 trillion "One Belt One Road" (OBOR)
initiative consisting of an overland Economic Belt and a Maritime Silk
Road. Although these infrastructure projects are supposed to be for
commercial use, Indian officials believe that China is preparing for
war by surrounding India with the Hambantota port and other ports, as
well as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that appears to be
impinging on the India-government portion of Kashmir. And this is
occurring at a time when China and India are close to a border war
over the Doklam Plateau in Bhutan.
India is attempting to match China's influence in the region by
executing its own major infrastructure projects. India is involved in
joint economic and technical projects with Bangladesh, Bhutan and
Nepal. India is also investing heavily in Africa to compete with
China there.
India is part of the North-South Transport Corridor (NSTC) which links
India with Iran, the Central Asian countries, and Russia. Part of
NSTC is the port in Chabahar, which is on the coast of Iran near
Pakistan. It's a direct competitor to China's Gwadar port in
Pakistan. Using it, India will be able to bypass Pakistan in shipping
goods to Iran, and from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia or Europe.
However, India's projects are generally much smaller than China's, and
are often only in the planning stages. For example, India invested
$54 billion in Africa and Indo-African trade in 2016, while China
invested $194 billion. Menafn (Middle East North Africa Financial Network)
Related Articles
- China establishes its first foreign military base, in Djibouti (13-Jul-2017)
- China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections and violent protests (14-May-2017)
- Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China (25-May-2016)
****
**** Threat of India-China border war at Doklam Plateau grows
****
We've reported several times on the growing tensions in Bhutan's
Doklam Plateau, which China would like to invade and annex, but is
being blocked by India forces, although no shots have yet been fired.
As we reported yesterday,
China is
threatening war over Doklam, and believes they will "annihilate"
India's army.
Many analysts, including some officials in India, believe that sooner
or later India will back down. However, a web site reader pointed out
that it's a lot more serious than a simple border dispute over a small
piece of land:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Indians will definitely fight, because if they
> don't push back now, they will wake up and find Eastern India cut
> off from New Delhi. This is a red line the Indians will never
> allow to be crossed. And this is where it gets really
> dangerous. China doesn't need to steal land from Bhutan to
> survive, but India needs to preserve the Siliguri Corridor because
> India has no choice but to defend it if it wants to preserve the
> country. India will fight. It's the Chinese who are
> miscalculating."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The Siliguri Corridor, also known as the "Chicken's Neck," is a land
corridor that connects western and eastern India. If China takes
control of the Doklam Plateau, they will also take control of the
Chicken's Neck corridor, and India will be effectively split into two
pieces.
The Doklam Plateau conflict has turned into an existential threat for
both countries, and it seems that neither China nor India will back
down. There's also a hard deadline in getting the issue resolved, as
there's a Chinese "People's Congress" in November, and China's
president Xi Jinping will look extremely weak if there's still a
standoff.
And according to the somewhat hysterical Global Times article tht I
quoted yesterday, the Chinese say that they will "annihilate" the
Indian army, and it wouldn't surprise me if they actually believe
that. Needless to day, the Indians don't agree. And it's worth
remembering that the Saudis expected to annihilate the Houthis when
they invaded Yemen in 2014.
Finally, for those readers who enjoy a little black humor, we have a
remarkable analysis appearing Sri Lanka's Daily Mirror, who has this
response to people who fear war between China and India:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Have no such fears. With certainty, it can be said
> that nuclear powers will not go to war. Take heart from
> Wednesday’s US statement offering peace talks with North Korea. It
> came days after the maverick regime carried out a successful test
> of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of hitting the US
> mainland.
>
> The deterrent value of nuclear weapons is one of the key factors
> why the Third World War has still not happened. For nearly two
> months, China and India have been bogged down in a face-off in the
> Himalayas. But neither wants to start a major war. Nuclear powers
> may find themselves in warlike situations, but will not go to war,
> unless insane leaders take control of affairs. This is why China
> and the US have not gone to war over the South China Sea
> disputes."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
I know that regular readers of my Generational Dynamics articles will
have a good laugh over this.
However, with both India and China facing an existential crisis over
the Doklam Plateau, the situation is a disaster in the making, unless
someone can figure out a face-saving formula that both sides can agree
to in the next month or so. India Times (3-July) and Daily Mirror (Sri Lanka)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Sri Lanka, Hambantota port,
Gwadar port, Pakistan, Djibouti, One Belt One Road, OBOR,
North-South Transport Corridor, NSTC, Chabahar port, Iran,
Bhutan, Doklam Plateau, Siliguri Corridor, Chicken's Neck,
Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
