08-09-2017, 10:24 PM
(08-09-2017, 06:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: China is still North Korea's ally. Would they take kindly to the USA nuking its ally? What might they do, then? What would Russia do? Attack Eastern Europe? Where does this stop? Nuclear winter?
It's highly questionable whether China is still North Korea's ally, after Kim Jong Un executed all the high level Chinese sympathizers in the North Korean government. What is certain is that China's at greater risk than we are with respect to North Korea's nukes. Getting rid of North Korea's nukes without regime change, giving China a nonnuclear buffer state, is pretty much their ideal situation.
As for Russia, Putin is not stupid enough to start a nuclear war over a two bit state he could hardly care less about.
Quote:Would it stop N. Korea's program? Might they still have facilities we didn't take out? Wouldn't they then be even more disposed toward developing them and using them? How many nuke strikes will this take?
They might have stray missiles we didn't take out, but it's the production facilities we care about, and with nukes, we could be pretty certain of destroying them. And if he tries to rebuild the production facilities, we've got plenty of nukes.
Quote:If N. Korea is nuked, don't you think this would mean war? What do we do about an expected Northern invasion and bombing of the South, with their huge army? Doesn't this mean a full-scale Korean War? Wouldn't China get involved if the USA and South Korea threatened to take over the North?
This is exactly why our targets should be the nuclear facilities, and not the regime. Kim Jong Un isn't stupid; he knows that invading and shelling the South would mean the end of his regime as well. He's extremely unlikely to risk it.
And if he did, we should remove the regime, and allow China to install the replacement, on the condition that it be nonnuclear. That should eliminate any risk of direct war with China.
Quote:That said, if Un bombs Guam, I don't think we'd have a choice but to strike. But, this would not be a good outcome. We'd better try diplomacy. We can offer to stop our military exercizes in Korea if they stop nuke testing. If Un is interested in making his state more like China economically, the USA and China could offer to help if they get off the nuclear path.
We could put our military exercises on hold if they put their missile tests on hold at a point short of full success, for a few months of negotiation. If he's willing to destroy his nuclear capability in return for investment, great. However, we should not go back to letting him extort economic aid just for keeping his program on hold; he needs to unwind it.
