Generational Dynamics World View

[Kinser79]

(08-14-2017, 02:17 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-13-2017, 06:52 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(08-13-2017, 05:18 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(08-13-2017, 12:24 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Boomers are trying to keep "strategic patience" as the US policy toward North Korea. They refuse to allow a US first strike against the north because of their narcissistic obsession with opposing the "military-industrial complex".

Which Boomers?  The Boomer left, maybe.

Trump is concerned about political support and the potential for irrational escalation on Kim's part.  The military folks are concerned that the Navy is in such sad shape from years of neglect under the sequester that it may not be able to perform a major strike mission.

Despite what the Lugenpresse tells you Kim Jong-Un is far from irrational.

I agree.  This is why I advocate taking out his nuclear weapons without threatening his regime.  Rationally, once that has happened, he should refrain from all out war on South Korea since that would result in his regime being eliminated as well, instead settling for symbolic retaliation.

But I would not be the one gambling 100,000 lives in Seoul on his rationality.  Trump would.

Removing Kim's nuclear capabilities without removing his regime is an impossible task.  We're not talking about some low IQ nation that is dominated by a semi-feudal political ideology masquerading as a religion as with Libya, Iraq and etc.  The word on the street is that the ROKs are ready to go.  The Japanese are ready to roll (the DPRK is an existential threat to them and has been for decades).  Also my sources in the fleet tell me that President Daddy has deployed several Boomer (ETC: Ballistic Missile submarines carrying nuclear warheads) submarines.

So Kim might have one to ten nukes, but we have hundreds.  The real question is China and if China will back him up or not.  Not to mention that tensions between China and India are escalating--if the PRC doesn't back Kim he has no hope.  It was only with Mao's help and Joe Stalin's political pressure his grandfather was preserved as a buffer for China.

An eastern invasion of Soviet Union/Russia is a logistical nightmare in the 1950s as well as today.

As for Seoul, they've been staring down the barrel of a gun for over 50 years.  What needs to happen is that Kim needs to understand that at least for the next 3.5 years the US won't have a feckless and weak foreign policy, and if he wants antibiotics, rice and diesel fuel he needs to behave or we can and will take him out.

The main thing keeping him in power now is the fact that Seoul isn't keen on having the PLA crossing the Yalu river.  Sure the DPRK's army is larger but ROK's has better weapons and isn't half starved.