08-20-2017, 10:13 PM
*** 21-Aug-17 World View -- Turkey warns of sectarian war as Iraq ejects ISIS from Tal Afar
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Done with Mosul, Iraqi forces begin operation to eject ISIS from Tal Afar
****
![[Image: g170820b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170820b.jpg)
Iraqi girls play in a Mosul schoolyard (Reuters)
Iraqi forces launched an offensive Sunday to recapture the city of Tal
Afar, which fell in 2014 to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). The offensive comes a month after the forces declared
that the city of Mosul had been recaptured from ISIS, leaving Tal Afar
as the only remaining large stronghold for ISIS in Iraq.
The recapture of Mosul took nine months of extremely brutal house to
house fighting, as the streets were too narrow for tanks and other
vehicles. Furthermore, the ISIS forces used women and children as
hostages in houses where explosives were stored and ISIS militias
fought off the Iraq forces.
The Iraqi military is claiming that the recapture of Tal Afar will be
much easier, because it's smaller and because the streets are much
wider in most parts of the city. The Iraqi air force dropped leaflets
across the city say, "The battle is imminent and the victory is
coming, God willing."
Prime Minister of Iraq Haider al-Abadi announced Sunday in a televised
speech to the nation that ISIS militias should surrender or die:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am saying to Daesh [ISIS] that there is no choice
> other than to surrender or die. [To the Iraqi troops] the whole
> world is with you."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, ISIS fighters have dug trenches around the city and can use
light machine guns, improvised explosive devices, and car bombs to
stop the Iraqi forces, using a strategy similar to what they had
adopted in Mosul.
Some 40,000 Iraqi fighters are participating in the offensive. As in
Mosul, a US-led coalition will provide support to the Iraqi forces.
According to a statement issued by Army Lt. Gen. Stephen J. Townsend
on Sunday:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The coalition will continue to help the government
> and security forces to liberate the Iraqi people and defeat ISIS
> through five means: by providing equipment, training,
> intelligence, precision fires and combat advice. ...
>
> In accordance with the laws of armed conflict and in support of
> its partnered forces who are risking their lives every day in the
> fight against an evil enemy, the coalition will continue to strike
> valid military targets, after considering the principles of
> military necessity, humanity, proportionality and
> distinction."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Before 2014, Tal Afar had a population of around 200,000. However,
most of the people have been fleeing the city, and it's estimated that
only 10,000 to 40,000 civilians remain. It's believed that there are
about one or two thousand ISIS militants and their families still in
the city. Iraqi News and International Business Times and Dept. of Defense
****
**** Turkey warns of sectarian war following battle of Tal Afar
****
The population of Tal Afar is mostly ethnic Turkmens, which are
ethnically related to Turks, and which are part of Turkey's identity
group. An estimated 60% of the Turkmens are Sunni, while the
remaining Turkmens are Shia.
So Turkey is expressing a great deal of concern that most of the
fighters in the Iraqi forces are from the Iran-backed Shiite
paramilitary group Hashd al-Shaabi militias. Turkey is concerned that
once Hashd al-Shaabi takes control of Tal Afar, there will be ethnic
cleansing of the Turkmens.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on record as saying that
Turkey would intervene if this kind of ethnic cleansing takes place.
In October 2016 he said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I conveyed this to all authorities loud and
> clear. Tal Afar is entirely a Turkmen town. Half the town is
> Shiite and the other half Sunni. We are looking at them
> holistically as Muslims rather than Shiite or Sunni. However, if
> Hashd al-Shaabi terrorizes [Tal Afar], our response would
> certainly be different."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Iran's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s. This was not a war of Sunnis versus Shias. It was an ethnic
war of Arabs and Turkmens versus Persians, with Sunnis and Shia
involved on both sides. It was an extremely bloody war, with
something like 1.5 million people killed, climaxing when Saddam
Hussein began using chemical weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).
So Turkey's concerns are that now you have Iran-backed militias that
will take control of Tal Afar, with its population of Turkmens, and
conduct revenge attacks for the Iran/Iraq war -- which is possible and
may even be likely.
Furthermore, Iran is known to have a strategy of taking control of a
swath from Baghdad to Damascus, and Iranian control of Tal Afar would
be a big advance on that strategy. Anadolu (Ankara) and Sabah (Ankara) and Al Monitor (1-Dec-2016) and NY Times
Related Articles:
[*] Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul (22-Mar-2017)
[*] Recapturing Mosul from ISIS leaves the future of Iraq in question (09-Jul-2017)
[*] Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
[*] Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey (28-Nov-2016)
****
**** President Trump to announce US strategy in Afghanistan
****
President Donald Trump is planning a nationwide televised
address from the Oval Office on Monday evening, with the
purpose of explaining decisions that he's made regarding
the US strategy in Afghanistan.
A couple of weeks ago, I discussed the whole US strategy in Afghanistan
at length, including the
options recommended by Steve Bannon. Now that Bannon has left the
White House, it will be interesting to see whether Bannon's
recommendations are followed on Monday evening.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tal Afar, Haider al-Abadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Stephen J. Townsend, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Iran, Turkmens, Hashd al-Shaabi, Iran/Iraq war, Syria, Afghanistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Done with Mosul, Iraqi forces begin operation to eject ISIS from Tal Afar
- Turkey warns of sectarian war following battle of Tal Afar
- President Trump to announce US strategy in Afghanistan
****
**** Done with Mosul, Iraqi forces begin operation to eject ISIS from Tal Afar
****
Iraqi girls play in a Mosul schoolyard (Reuters)
Iraqi forces launched an offensive Sunday to recapture the city of Tal
Afar, which fell in 2014 to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or
ISIL or Daesh). The offensive comes a month after the forces declared
that the city of Mosul had been recaptured from ISIS, leaving Tal Afar
as the only remaining large stronghold for ISIS in Iraq.
The recapture of Mosul took nine months of extremely brutal house to
house fighting, as the streets were too narrow for tanks and other
vehicles. Furthermore, the ISIS forces used women and children as
hostages in houses where explosives were stored and ISIS militias
fought off the Iraq forces.
The Iraqi military is claiming that the recapture of Tal Afar will be
much easier, because it's smaller and because the streets are much
wider in most parts of the city. The Iraqi air force dropped leaflets
across the city say, "The battle is imminent and the victory is
coming, God willing."
Prime Minister of Iraq Haider al-Abadi announced Sunday in a televised
speech to the nation that ISIS militias should surrender or die:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I am saying to Daesh [ISIS] that there is no choice
> other than to surrender or die. [To the Iraqi troops] the whole
> world is with you."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
However, ISIS fighters have dug trenches around the city and can use
light machine guns, improvised explosive devices, and car bombs to
stop the Iraqi forces, using a strategy similar to what they had
adopted in Mosul.
Some 40,000 Iraqi fighters are participating in the offensive. As in
Mosul, a US-led coalition will provide support to the Iraqi forces.
According to a statement issued by Army Lt. Gen. Stephen J. Townsend
on Sunday:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"The coalition will continue to help the government
> and security forces to liberate the Iraqi people and defeat ISIS
> through five means: by providing equipment, training,
> intelligence, precision fires and combat advice. ...
>
> In accordance with the laws of armed conflict and in support of
> its partnered forces who are risking their lives every day in the
> fight against an evil enemy, the coalition will continue to strike
> valid military targets, after considering the principles of
> military necessity, humanity, proportionality and
> distinction."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Before 2014, Tal Afar had a population of around 200,000. However,
most of the people have been fleeing the city, and it's estimated that
only 10,000 to 40,000 civilians remain. It's believed that there are
about one or two thousand ISIS militants and their families still in
the city. Iraqi News and International Business Times and Dept. of Defense
****
**** Turkey warns of sectarian war following battle of Tal Afar
****
The population of Tal Afar is mostly ethnic Turkmens, which are
ethnically related to Turks, and which are part of Turkey's identity
group. An estimated 60% of the Turkmens are Sunni, while the
remaining Turkmens are Shia.
So Turkey is expressing a great deal of concern that most of the
fighters in the Iraqi forces are from the Iran-backed Shiite
paramilitary group Hashd al-Shaabi militias. Turkey is concerned that
once Hashd al-Shaabi takes control of Tal Afar, there will be ethnic
cleansing of the Turkmens.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is on record as saying that
Turkey would intervene if this kind of ethnic cleansing takes place.
In October 2016 he said:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I conveyed this to all authorities loud and
> clear. Tal Afar is entirely a Turkmen town. Half the town is
> Shiite and the other half Sunni. We are looking at them
> holistically as Muslims rather than Shiite or Sunni. However, if
> Hashd al-Shaabi terrorizes [Tal Afar], our response would
> certainly be different."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Iran's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s. This was not a war of Sunnis versus Shias. It was an ethnic
war of Arabs and Turkmens versus Persians, with Sunnis and Shia
involved on both sides. It was an extremely bloody war, with
something like 1.5 million people killed, climaxing when Saddam
Hussein began using chemical weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).
So Turkey's concerns are that now you have Iran-backed militias that
will take control of Tal Afar, with its population of Turkmens, and
conduct revenge attacks for the Iran/Iraq war -- which is possible and
may even be likely.
Furthermore, Iran is known to have a strategy of taking control of a
swath from Baghdad to Damascus, and Iranian control of Tal Afar would
be a big advance on that strategy. Anadolu (Ankara) and Sabah (Ankara) and Al Monitor (1-Dec-2016) and NY Times
Related Articles:
[*] Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul (22-Mar-2017)
[*] Recapturing Mosul from ISIS leaves the future of Iraq in question (09-Jul-2017)
[*] Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
[*] Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey (28-Nov-2016)
****
**** President Trump to announce US strategy in Afghanistan
****
President Donald Trump is planning a nationwide televised
address from the Oval Office on Monday evening, with the
purpose of explaining decisions that he's made regarding
the US strategy in Afghanistan.
A couple of weeks ago, I discussed the whole US strategy in Afghanistan
at length, including the
options recommended by Steve Bannon. Now that Bannon has left the
White House, it will be interesting to see whether Bannon's
recommendations are followed on Monday evening.
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tal Afar, Haider al-Abadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Stephen J. Townsend, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Iran, Turkmens, Hashd al-Shaabi, Iran/Iraq war, Syria, Afghanistan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
