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Generational Dynamics World View
(08-27-2017, 05:45 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:
(08-26-2017, 10:11 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Xenakis, Any External Crisis war (at least under boomer
>   leadership) would not be a uniting crisis like WW2 was for the
>   US. Instead an large-scale war under boomer leadership would be
>   similar to how WW1 was handled by Russia. The Only exception is if
>   the war unexpectedly turns out to be a relative walkover for the
>   US where we win almost every battle. In all other scenarios the
>   boomer leaders would eventually be hunted down and killed and
>   replaced be Xers and Millies by force. Xers and Millies hated
>   serving under inept boomer leadership during afghanistan and
>   Iraq. They are NOT going to give boomers another chance after the
>   boomers display of gross incompetence in Iraq. Trump may be an
>   exception as commander in chief because Trump is well known to
>   have opposed the handling of the Iraq war.

>   Also the boomer mainstreams delusional lies that a north Korean
>   nuclear arsenal was inevitable and that "strategic Patience" was
>   the best option available can be laid bare simply by watching
>   clips of political/strategic analysis by pundits as far back as
>   the 1990s. Here is Trump talking about what should be done about
>   North Korea all the way in 1998 or 1999. The Boomer establishment
>   chose to sit on their ass because they characteristically want
>   someone else to do it.

>   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-1WE-ivtO4

>   Please reply to both paragraphs.



It continues to astonish me that after 10+ years in this forum, you
still have no idea of the difference between Unraveling and Crisis
eras.  Have you even read The Fourth Turning?  Either way, you should
read and reread it about 5-10 times, until you understand what the
different eras mean, and what the Regeneracy is.

As for your claim that if, say, a nuclear missile from China or North
Korea landed on Los Angeles that Xers and Millies would be shooting at
Boomer leaders, that's a completely moronic conclusion.

In the 1990s, we only went to war in Iraq because Saddam had already
invaded Kuwait, and we only got into the Bosnian war because of the
Srebrenica genocide.

There's no way, in a generational Unraveling era in the 1990s, that
we're going to invade a foreign country because they MIGHT have
nuclear weapons in 20 years.  Wishing for it is like wishing that
2+2=3, which is what all your claims are equivalent to.

Let me make this clear: An invasion of North Korea in the 1990s was
mathematically impossible, as proven by generational theory, as
impossible as 2+2 equaling 3.  The fact is that 2+2=4, then and now.

The other thing is that you constantly claim to speak for all Millies
and Xers.  Does this board have a poll capability?  If it does, why
don't you launch a poll and see how many of the Millies and Xers on
this board believe your nonsense.

The Unraveling Era ended, and the Crisis Era began, in 2003, but we're
still in what Matt Ignal dubbed the "post-unraveling" era, which is
the time in the Crisis era before the Regeneracy occurs.  During that
period, there's still a major reluctance on the part of the public --
all generations -- to initiate a war, although it has happened in
Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.

If you take your poll, find out how many people on this board think
we're going to have a war with China.  Almost everyone in all
generations is in denial about this, and I doubt that the people on
this board are any different, even though it's clearly a typical
outcome predicted by the Fourth Turning, so the people on this
board should theoretically be different, though they aren't.

As you know, I've been through this before.  Since 2003, I was talking
about a real estate bubble and approaching financial crisis.  I was
mocked and ridiculed in this forum by the likes of Sean Love and Mike
Alexander, but as with everything else, Generational Dynamics has
turned out to be completely right.  It wasn't until 2009 that the
idiotic mainstream economists even admitted that there had been a real
estate bubble.  "Oh yeah, of course there was a real estate bubble.
Everyone knew that.  But that was years ago, and of course nothing
like that will ever be allowed to happen again!"

In fact, you don't need generational theory any more to see that a
major financial crisis and world war are coming.  It's as plain as the
nose on your face for anyone who reads the world news, as I do,
instead of spending all waking hours thinking about impeaching Trump.
In my opinion, all the nonsense about Russian meddling or racism
charges are by people who are in total denial about what's coming, and
are looking for anything, anything, anything, so that they don't have
to think about what's really going on in the world.

You're in complete denial as well, because you think by taking
military action now, a full-scale war could be avoided.  That's
complete denial and wishful thinking.  In a generational Crisis era,
that kind of military action that you propose would actually trigger
the world war, not prevent it.

So I hope this answers your questions until you post the next bizarre
rant.

Your the one that assuming that both a war with North Korea is inevitable AND that the US would wait until North Korea develops and uses the capability to hit the US with a nuke; and that only after an attack would the US begin military operations against them. The reason I say it would not happen that way is because that would mean a indefinite continuation of "strategic Patience". The GD predictions therefore a wrong because president trump specifically mentioned the scenario of waiting until we are actually attacked with Nukes to respond and rejected that option. Thus a north Korean arsenal is now regarded as a casus belli by the US which will not allow development of North Korean nuclear forces, let alone allow those forces to become integrated with the Chinese forces.

Here is President Trump declaring the end of "strategic Patience":

http://thehill.com/homenews/administrati...orth-korea

Here is Vice-President Pence declaring the Same thing:

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/vice-pre...h-46838889

Not only that but your GD claim you made that china would defuse the standoff with North Korea and that the US would back down appears not be occuring but that the standoff has been continually escalating over the past few months directly contrary to your claims.
in an partially related note; Steve Bannon was probably removed by Trump because he probably advocated accepting a North Korean ICBM arsenal and maintaining peace with them unless we are attacked first. Trump probably Fired him for advocating that because doing so would allow a permanent threat to US national Security to exist in addition to Russia and China.
In short if the current standoff with north Korea is resolved without war it would be because Kim backed down, not The US or Trump.

Regarding the 2008 recession and your claim that you were the only person who said there was a bubble in housing: quite frankly you are a liar. Numerous analysts pointed out there was a bubble, those who discounted a bubble did so by saying that we could manage the bubble, practically no one was saying that the bubble didn't exist. The bubble was already in collapse since mid-2007 and then collapsed entirely in September 2008.  So your claim that the bubble was not acknowledged by anyone other than yourself until 2009 is not only nonsense but outright lies. 

Here Are articles Mentioning the economic crisis and clearly mentioning the housing bubble as it's cause:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story...Id=4679264

http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/412/housing-recession.html

Here is a optimistic pre-bubble article mentioning the bubble. Note that the optimist says that the bubble can be maintained as salve for the economy, NOT that there was no bubble in housing:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...wont-burst

Here is more analyists predicting the housing Crash:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay06/hous...ssion.html

http://freakonomics.com/2007/08/15/freak...ng-bubble/

As for Crisis Wars Being averted or prematurely triggered as not being possible. Remember that During the Last Crisis era The Japanese war preparations that ultimately led to pearl harbor was not initially directed at the US until 1940 even though japan militarized in the late 1920s. What happened is that even after the Militarists gained control in 1931, the militarists themselves were divided until 1939 into a "strike North" and a "strike south" faction. In 1939 the "strike north" faction was granted permission by the Emperor to launch an invasion of Russian-Controlled Mongolia but the subsequent war was disastrous for the army that was sent into battle, this was known as the battle of khalkhin-gol. As a result of that defeat the "Strike North" faction was discredited and "strike south" became the only viable option for imperial japan as a result Japanese preparations for war against Russia ceased around that time but at the same time Japanese preparations against the United States rapidly accelerated around that time. It also Mean't that Japan Never seriously attempted to link up with Germany like Hitler wanted the Japanese to do (Hitler hoped that japan would join the war by attacking Stalin's rear, this is also one of the main reasons Hitler declared war on the US, because he hoped japan reciprocate by joining the Barbarossa campaign).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Khalkhin_Gol

My point is that a US invasion of North Korea would insure that the Crisis war would NOT be with either China or Russia. This because after seeing the US make an example of North Korea, this would massively bolster US deterrence against Both Russia and China. Thus any scenario that includes a war with north Korea would exclude a world war with either Russia or China as well as massively increase the probability of a religious world war with the Muslim World. Any world war Scenario in which China or Russia is the main enemy must use the assumption that the war with North Korea either did not take place or only took place later as simply one theater of the war with Russia and/or China.
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Cynic Hero '86 - 08-27-2017, 08:15 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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