08-29-2017, 10:43 PM
*** 30-Aug-17 World View -- Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals
****
![[Image: g161103b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161103b.jpg)
Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 of last year in London (Getty)
Britain's opposition Labor party made a dramatic policy U-turn on
Saturday on the terms of Brexit negotiations. The new position leaves
open the possibility that that when Britain formally leaves the
European on March 29, 2019, the terms of the UK-EU relationship will
be essentially unchanged for years, and possibly forever. This could
effectively nullify Brexit, for all practical purposes.
Britain's Tory government, headed by prime minister Theresa May, has
been struggling to define policies for the UK-EU relationship after
March 2019, and has had little success so far. The intention is that
there will be a "transitional period" for two years, during which
further negotiations will take place on the terms of the final
separation.
There are hardliners on both the UK and EU negotiating sides that are
going to make any agreement very difficult. The terms of any
agreement will have to be approved by all 27 remaining EU members, by
the UK government, and possibly by the UK parliament. It seems
unlikely that any agreement whatsoever will be reached on anything, at
least until late in 2018, when the time is so late and the situation
so desperate that the parties will be forced to agree to something.
Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary of the shadow government of
Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn, published a proposal on Saturday
that the UK negotiate a transitional deal with the EU that preserves
the UK's continued membership in the EU single market, accepting all
the terms of that membership, including free movement of people
through Europe, including the UK, and accepting the jurisdiction of
the European Court of Justice as having a higher priority than the
UK's own courts.
These are exactly the policies that drove the passage of the Brexit
referendum -- blocking immigrants from reaching Britain, and giving
Britain jurisdiction over its own laws -- so the Labor proposal
effectively negates Brexit, especially if the Labor transitional deal
lasts more than two years.
According to some analysts, this proposal could run into trouble
because it will be violating the terms of rules for exiting the EU
described in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and therefore could be
rejected by the European Court of Justice. The Germany parliament may
also oppose the proposal.
The negotiations this fall are expected to be extremely bitter and
vitriolic on all sides. Guardian (London, 26-Aug) and Telegraph (London) and EuroIntelligence
****
**** UK's Tory government struggles with Brexit policy positions
****
The proposal by Labor is very simple, because it says that everything
should be as before, with all the same privileges, rules and
restrictions of the existing relationship.
Theresa May has a much more difficult problem. A proposal that honors
the spirit of Brexit requires that every minute law and regulation
adopted by the EU and the UK over a period of decades be renegotiated.
In fact, the EU and UK sides can't even agree which policies are to be
negotiated first.
The Tories are insisting that the terms of the trade relationship, or
"customs union," between the UK and EU be agreed as quickly as
possible, so that businesses on both sides will be able to plan for
March 2019. The UK says that they can't agree on other things until
they've determined what the trade relationship will be.
The EU negotiators say the opposite. They can't agree on the trade
relationship until the terms of the "divorce" have been settled.
There are three questions that the EU negotiators say have to be
resolved first:
The trade issue, when negotiations finally begin, is liable to just as
contentious. Theresa May would like an agreement of a "customs union"
that would allow for "frictionless trade" between the UK and EU, with
minimum rules and custom duties. She would also like for UK to be
able to begin negotiating trade deals with other countries, such as
the US and China.
The problem with that proposal is that it makes a customs union
impossible. The idea behind the EU single market is that anyone can
trade with anyone else in the customs union with no tariffs, but
imports from other countries could be taxed to protect European
agriculture and other products. But if the UK is part of the EU
single market, and the UK can also make its own deals with other
countries, then other countries could then gain tariff-free trade with
the entire EU simply by trans-shipping all goods through the UK.
Business Insider (16-Feb) and UK government Brexit position papers
Related Articles
****
**** Ireland calls Theresa May's Irish border proposal 'delusional'
****
Britain's government two weeks ago published its position paper on the
border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the
Republic of Ireland (southern Ireland), which is an independent
nation, but a member state of the EU. The only land border between
the UK and other EU members is the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland.
Ireland and Northern Ireland have an extremely bloody history, largely
fought between the indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of the
English and Scottish invaders. (See "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
)
During the 1960s-90s, in a period known as "the Troubles," there was a
great deal of violence in Northern Ireland. It was mostly resolved by
the "Good Friday agreement" in 1998, and part of that agreement is
that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland must be
completely open.
If the UK leaves the EU under Brexit, then the border in Ireland would
be a border between the UK and EU, subject to the usual tariffs and
customs rules.
Theresa May is proposing some kind of "invisible electronic border"
between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but Ireland's EU Commissioner
Phil Hogan says that this is delusional:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that there's a high level of delusion in
> London at the moment about what is required to be done.
>
> But if there is an appetite for a pragmatic and reasonable outcome
> to a free-trade agreement, well then membership of the customs
> union would make a significant contribution to this.
>
> I'm very concerned about the Irish question. Ireland is probably
> the biggest victim of this mess. [UK ministers] still don't
> realize that the other 27 [member states] have to agree to this
> transition period of two or three years or whatever they're going
> to be seeking."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
An Irish Government source confirmed it is prepared to use the
"nuclear option" of vetoing the transition period. UK Brexit policy on Ireland and Independent (Ireland)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Britain, Brexit,
Theresa May, Labor Party, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn,
Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland,
The Troubles, Gaelics
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals
- UK's Tory government struggles with Brexit policy positions
- Ireland calls Theresa May's Irish border proposal 'delusional'
****
**** Britain's Labor party makes dramatic U-turn on Brexit policy proposals
****
Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 of last year in London (Getty)
Britain's opposition Labor party made a dramatic policy U-turn on
Saturday on the terms of Brexit negotiations. The new position leaves
open the possibility that that when Britain formally leaves the
European on March 29, 2019, the terms of the UK-EU relationship will
be essentially unchanged for years, and possibly forever. This could
effectively nullify Brexit, for all practical purposes.
Britain's Tory government, headed by prime minister Theresa May, has
been struggling to define policies for the UK-EU relationship after
March 2019, and has had little success so far. The intention is that
there will be a "transitional period" for two years, during which
further negotiations will take place on the terms of the final
separation.
There are hardliners on both the UK and EU negotiating sides that are
going to make any agreement very difficult. The terms of any
agreement will have to be approved by all 27 remaining EU members, by
the UK government, and possibly by the UK parliament. It seems
unlikely that any agreement whatsoever will be reached on anything, at
least until late in 2018, when the time is so late and the situation
so desperate that the parties will be forced to agree to something.
Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary of the shadow government of
Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn, published a proposal on Saturday
that the UK negotiate a transitional deal with the EU that preserves
the UK's continued membership in the EU single market, accepting all
the terms of that membership, including free movement of people
through Europe, including the UK, and accepting the jurisdiction of
the European Court of Justice as having a higher priority than the
UK's own courts.
These are exactly the policies that drove the passage of the Brexit
referendum -- blocking immigrants from reaching Britain, and giving
Britain jurisdiction over its own laws -- so the Labor proposal
effectively negates Brexit, especially if the Labor transitional deal
lasts more than two years.
According to some analysts, this proposal could run into trouble
because it will be violating the terms of rules for exiting the EU
described in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, and therefore could be
rejected by the European Court of Justice. The Germany parliament may
also oppose the proposal.
The negotiations this fall are expected to be extremely bitter and
vitriolic on all sides. Guardian (London, 26-Aug) and Telegraph (London) and EuroIntelligence
****
**** UK's Tory government struggles with Brexit policy positions
****
The proposal by Labor is very simple, because it says that everything
should be as before, with all the same privileges, rules and
restrictions of the existing relationship.
Theresa May has a much more difficult problem. A proposal that honors
the spirit of Brexit requires that every minute law and regulation
adopted by the EU and the UK over a period of decades be renegotiated.
In fact, the EU and UK sides can't even agree which policies are to be
negotiated first.
The Tories are insisting that the terms of the trade relationship, or
"customs union," between the UK and EU be agreed as quickly as
possible, so that businesses on both sides will be able to plan for
March 2019. The UK says that they can't agree on other things until
they've determined what the trade relationship will be.
The EU negotiators say the opposite. They can't agree on the trade
relationship until the terms of the "divorce" have been settled.
There are three questions that the EU negotiators say have to be
resolved first:
- The highest priority issue would be "citizens' rights." This
refers to UK citizens living in the EU-27, and EU-27 citizens living
in the UK. There are 5.4 million of these, and their lives have been
thrown into chaos by the Brexit referendum, since they have no idea
whether they'll continue to be living and working as they have been.
The issues involve things like pensions, social security, work
benefits, medical care, and so forth. A recent proposal by Theresa
May has been rejected by the EU as providing insufficient rights for
EU citizens living in Britain.
- The next highest priority is the "divorce bill." The EU wants to
charge Britain about €60 billion in payments already committed to
farmers, scientists, and a variety of programs. There have been some
reports of an agreement of an annual €10 billion contribution to
the EU during the transitional period, with the remaining terms to be
negotiated.
- The third divorce issue is the land border between Northern
Ireland, which is part of Britain, and the Republic of Ireland, which
is an independent country that will remain part of the European Union.
The EU-27 is requiring that all parts of the "Good Friday Agreement"
be maintained, which means that there should be free flow of people
and goods across the border.
The trade issue, when negotiations finally begin, is liable to just as
contentious. Theresa May would like an agreement of a "customs union"
that would allow for "frictionless trade" between the UK and EU, with
minimum rules and custom duties. She would also like for UK to be
able to begin negotiating trade deals with other countries, such as
the US and China.
The problem with that proposal is that it makes a customs union
impossible. The idea behind the EU single market is that anyone can
trade with anyone else in the customs union with no tariffs, but
imports from other countries could be taxed to protect European
agriculture and other products. But if the UK is part of the EU
single market, and the UK can also make its own deals with other
countries, then other countries could then gain tariff-free trade with
the entire EU simply by trans-shipping all goods through the UK.
Business Insider (16-Feb) and UK government Brexit position papers
Related Articles
- European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations (30-Apr-2017)
- Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
****
**** Ireland calls Theresa May's Irish border proposal 'delusional'
****
Britain's government two weeks ago published its position paper on the
border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the
Republic of Ireland (southern Ireland), which is an independent
nation, but a member state of the EU. The only land border between
the UK and other EU members is the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland.
Ireland and Northern Ireland have an extremely bloody history, largely
fought between the indigenous Gaelics versus the descendants of the
English and Scottish invaders. (See "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again"
)
During the 1960s-90s, in a period known as "the Troubles," there was a
great deal of violence in Northern Ireland. It was mostly resolved by
the "Good Friday agreement" in 1998, and part of that agreement is
that the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland must be
completely open.
If the UK leaves the EU under Brexit, then the border in Ireland would
be a border between the UK and EU, subject to the usual tariffs and
customs rules.
Theresa May is proposing some kind of "invisible electronic border"
between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but Ireland's EU Commissioner
Phil Hogan says that this is delusional:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"I think that there's a high level of delusion in
> London at the moment about what is required to be done.
>
> But if there is an appetite for a pragmatic and reasonable outcome
> to a free-trade agreement, well then membership of the customs
> union would make a significant contribution to this.
>
> I'm very concerned about the Irish question. Ireland is probably
> the biggest victim of this mess. [UK ministers] still don't
> realize that the other 27 [member states] have to agree to this
> transition period of two or three years or whatever they're going
> to be seeking."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
An Irish Government source confirmed it is prepared to use the
"nuclear option" of vetoing the transition period. UK Brexit policy on Ireland and Independent (Ireland)
Related Articles
- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
- England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland (12-May-2016)
- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Britain, Brexit,
Theresa May, Labor Party, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn,
Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland,
The Troubles, Gaelics
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
