08-31-2017, 10:10 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2017, 06:06 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 1-Sep-17 World View -- As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become allies confronting China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Vietnam protests China's military drills near the Gulf of Tonkin in South China Sea
****
![[Image: g170831b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170831b.jpg)
India's Narendra Modi with Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc in Hanoi (Reuters)
Vietnam on Thursday protested China's military drills in waters off
the month of Vietnam's Gulf of Tonkin in the South China Sea.
In reply to reporters’ queries about the move of China, a Foreign
Ministry spokesman said that all activities of foreign countries in
the waters belonging to Vietnam’s sovereign right and jurisdiction
should comply with Vietnam’s legal regulations and international law,
especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
It's doubtful that China will honor any international law. China
repeatedly violates other countries' sovereign territories and
threatens to use its massive military to kill anyone who doesn't do as
they demand.
In July, Vietnam again protested China's military drills violating
Vietnam's sovereignty, and as usual they were ignored.
In June, China demanded that Spanish company Repsol, under contract
with Vietnam, stop drilling for oil and gas in a block that clearly
belongs to Vietnam under international law. Vietnam refused. A month
later, China threatened to use military force against Vietnamese
targets, and Vietnam was forced to step back. Even worse, Vietnam may
now be forced to pay Repsol hundreds of millions of dollars in
damages.
Despite this setback, what's becoming clear is that little Vietnam is
becoming the only country around the South China Sea willing to stand
up at all to gargantuan China.
The Philippines used to stand up to China, but under president Rodrigo
R. Duterte, the country has simply given up, with the attitude that
China is going to win anyway, so why fight? Malaysia, Indonesia and
Singapore, which previously had expressed some opposition to China's
belligerence, have also given up.
China even gloated about this three weeks ago in a China Daily
editorial, following the meeting of ASEAN (Association of Southeast
Asian Nations). According to the article:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It seems, however, that Vietnam almost put a spanner
> in the works by attempting to push its own agenda during the
> meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers.
>
> According to media reports, Hanoi struck a less harmonious note by
> hypocritically trying to insert tough language criticizing China's
> island building in the South China Sea, something Vietnam did
> first, resulting in a delay to the issuing of their joint
> statement on Saturday.
>
> But with none of the other ASEAN members being like-minded,
> Vietnam's proposed phrases were not included in the communiqué
> released on Sunday."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China's island building in the South China Sea is a clear violation of
international law, as decided in July 2016, when a Tribunal at the
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague eviscerated
all of China's claims to the South China Sea. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea"
)
China is an international criminal that has repeatedly lied about its
claims in the South China Sea. And yet, they won a victory in ASEAN
removing any mention of China's criminal activities from the final
statement. Even the Philippines, which won the Tribunal ruling last
year in July, has almost completely given in to China.
It seems that only Vietnam, among the South China Sea nations, is
still willing to stand up to China. Vietnam Plus and Reuters and Vietnam Plus (23-Aug) and CNN (14-Aug) and China Daily (7-Aug)
****
**** India and Vietnam become allies in confronting China
****
Of course, Vietnam is not completely alone in confronting China.
Japan is very confrontational with China, and has discussed allying
with Vietnam against China.
The United States conducts Freedom of Navigation operations in the
South China Sea, sailing intelligence-gathering ships near China's
illegal man-made islands, infuriating Chinese officials. The US is
also confronting China in Central Asia. As we reported in last week's
analysis of Donald Trump's speech on Afghanistan,
the US is confronting Pakistan in Afghanistan, and is
also maintaining its two air bases, in Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport, as forward bases in any future war with China.
India and the US recently signed a logistical support agreement.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's most
interesting is that the US, India and Vietnam, along with Japan,
appear to be forming a military alliance to encircle and confront
China. India has good reason to ally with Vietnam in confronting
China. They share concerns about China's control of the South China
Sea, and China's access to the Indian Ocean.
India is already providing Vietnam with a $100 million line of credit,
and has sold Vietnam four offshore patrol vessels that are likely to
be used against China in the South China Sea. India is helping
Vietnam to build capacity for repair and maintenance of its defense
platforms, and the armed forces of the two states have started
cooperation in areas like information technology and the
English-language training of Vietnamese Army personnel. India has
also accepted Vietnam's invitation to drill for oil in the same region
that Repsol abandoned.
The most intriguing issue has to do with the possible sale by India of
sophisticated BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile systems to Vietnam.
Such a sale would dramatically change the power balance in the South
China Sea. Vietnam has been asking India since 2011 to purchase the
BrahMos systems, but India has refused, fearing to anger China.
In 2016, India's prime minister Narendra Modi made it clear that it
was no longer as hesitant. The Modi government last year directed
BrahMos Aerospace, which produces the missiles, to expedite this sale
to Vietnam. Two weeks ago, the government of Vietnam appeared to
confirm that it had acquired the missiles from India. However,
sources at India's Defense Ministry denied selling the missiles to
Vietnam. After that, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry gave an ambiguous
statement that neither confirmed nor denied the sale.
What we now know that we didn't know then is that India and China were
having back-channel negotiations to back down from the standoff on
Bhutan's Doklam Plateau. In public, Chinese media were making
vitriolic and offensive threats and accusations at India, saying that
China's military would wipe out India's military unless India
withdrew, and also saying that no negotiations were possible unless
India unilaterally withdraw. That all turned out to be China's usual
hot air, because the negotiations were already in progress, and resulted in a mutual pullback.
So India's denial of the BrahMos sale to Vietnam came at a time when
those negotiations were going on, and we still don't yet know whether
India denied the sale because they had completed the same but didn't
want to upset the negotiations, or because they really hadn't sold the
missiles. Asia Times and The Diplomat (22-Aug) and New Delhi TV (23-Aug)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Gulf of Tonkin,
China, South China Sea, Repsol, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile system, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Vietnam protests China's military drills near the Gulf of Tonkin in South China Sea
- India and Vietnam become allies in confronting China
****
**** Vietnam protests China's military drills near the Gulf of Tonkin in South China Sea
****
India's Narendra Modi with Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc in Hanoi (Reuters)
Vietnam on Thursday protested China's military drills in waters off
the month of Vietnam's Gulf of Tonkin in the South China Sea.
In reply to reporters’ queries about the move of China, a Foreign
Ministry spokesman said that all activities of foreign countries in
the waters belonging to Vietnam’s sovereign right and jurisdiction
should comply with Vietnam’s legal regulations and international law,
especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
It's doubtful that China will honor any international law. China
repeatedly violates other countries' sovereign territories and
threatens to use its massive military to kill anyone who doesn't do as
they demand.
In July, Vietnam again protested China's military drills violating
Vietnam's sovereignty, and as usual they were ignored.
In June, China demanded that Spanish company Repsol, under contract
with Vietnam, stop drilling for oil and gas in a block that clearly
belongs to Vietnam under international law. Vietnam refused. A month
later, China threatened to use military force against Vietnamese
targets, and Vietnam was forced to step back. Even worse, Vietnam may
now be forced to pay Repsol hundreds of millions of dollars in
damages.
Despite this setback, what's becoming clear is that little Vietnam is
becoming the only country around the South China Sea willing to stand
up at all to gargantuan China.
The Philippines used to stand up to China, but under president Rodrigo
R. Duterte, the country has simply given up, with the attitude that
China is going to win anyway, so why fight? Malaysia, Indonesia and
Singapore, which previously had expressed some opposition to China's
belligerence, have also given up.
China even gloated about this three weeks ago in a China Daily
editorial, following the meeting of ASEAN (Association of Southeast
Asian Nations). According to the article:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It seems, however, that Vietnam almost put a spanner
> in the works by attempting to push its own agenda during the
> meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers.
>
> According to media reports, Hanoi struck a less harmonious note by
> hypocritically trying to insert tough language criticizing China's
> island building in the South China Sea, something Vietnam did
> first, resulting in a delay to the issuing of their joint
> statement on Saturday.
>
> But with none of the other ASEAN members being like-minded,
> Vietnam's proposed phrases were not included in the communiqué
> released on Sunday."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
China's island building in the South China Sea is a clear violation of
international law, as decided in July 2016, when a Tribunal at the
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague eviscerated
all of China's claims to the South China Sea. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea"
)
China is an international criminal that has repeatedly lied about its
claims in the South China Sea. And yet, they won a victory in ASEAN
removing any mention of China's criminal activities from the final
statement. Even the Philippines, which won the Tribunal ruling last
year in July, has almost completely given in to China.
It seems that only Vietnam, among the South China Sea nations, is
still willing to stand up to China. Vietnam Plus and Reuters and Vietnam Plus (23-Aug) and CNN (14-Aug) and China Daily (7-Aug)
****
**** India and Vietnam become allies in confronting China
****
Of course, Vietnam is not completely alone in confronting China.
Japan is very confrontational with China, and has discussed allying
with Vietnam against China.
The United States conducts Freedom of Navigation operations in the
South China Sea, sailing intelligence-gathering ships near China's
illegal man-made islands, infuriating Chinese officials. The US is
also confronting China in Central Asia. As we reported in last week's
analysis of Donald Trump's speech on Afghanistan,
the US is confronting Pakistan in Afghanistan, and is
also maintaining its two air bases, in Bagram and Kandahar
International Airport, as forward bases in any future war with China.
India and the US recently signed a logistical support agreement.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's most
interesting is that the US, India and Vietnam, along with Japan,
appear to be forming a military alliance to encircle and confront
China. India has good reason to ally with Vietnam in confronting
China. They share concerns about China's control of the South China
Sea, and China's access to the Indian Ocean.
India is already providing Vietnam with a $100 million line of credit,
and has sold Vietnam four offshore patrol vessels that are likely to
be used against China in the South China Sea. India is helping
Vietnam to build capacity for repair and maintenance of its defense
platforms, and the armed forces of the two states have started
cooperation in areas like information technology and the
English-language training of Vietnamese Army personnel. India has
also accepted Vietnam's invitation to drill for oil in the same region
that Repsol abandoned.
The most intriguing issue has to do with the possible sale by India of
sophisticated BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile systems to Vietnam.
Such a sale would dramatically change the power balance in the South
China Sea. Vietnam has been asking India since 2011 to purchase the
BrahMos systems, but India has refused, fearing to anger China.
In 2016, India's prime minister Narendra Modi made it clear that it
was no longer as hesitant. The Modi government last year directed
BrahMos Aerospace, which produces the missiles, to expedite this sale
to Vietnam. Two weeks ago, the government of Vietnam appeared to
confirm that it had acquired the missiles from India. However,
sources at India's Defense Ministry denied selling the missiles to
Vietnam. After that, Vietnam's Foreign Ministry gave an ambiguous
statement that neither confirmed nor denied the sale.
What we now know that we didn't know then is that India and China were
having back-channel negotiations to back down from the standoff on
Bhutan's Doklam Plateau. In public, Chinese media were making
vitriolic and offensive threats and accusations at India, saying that
China's military would wipe out India's military unless India
withdrew, and also saying that no negotiations were possible unless
India unilaterally withdraw. That all turned out to be China's usual
hot air, because the negotiations were already in progress, and resulted in a mutual pullback.
So India's denial of the BrahMos sale to Vietnam came at a time when
those negotiations were going on, and we still don't yet know whether
India denied the sale because they had completed the same but didn't
want to upset the negotiations, or because they really hadn't sold the
missiles. Asia Times and The Diplomat (22-Aug) and New Delhi TV (23-Aug)
Related Articles
- China and India pull back from Doklam, while North Korea sharply escalates missile crisis (29-Aug-2017)
- UK to send warships to South China Sea, as China's neighbors militarize (28-Jul-2017)
- Vietnam buys cruise missiles from Russia to threaten China (02-May-2015)
- Vietnam, Philippines unite to confront China in South China Sea (26-Mar-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Gulf of Tonkin,
China, South China Sea, Repsol, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile system, Bhutan, Doklam Plateau
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
