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Generational Dynamics World View
(09-06-2017, 01:50 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:
(09-05-2017, 10:12 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: >   The Libya analogy is nonsense.  At the time of the 2011
>   intervention, a major refugee crisis had already begun in Tunisia
>   and Libya, with hundreds of thousands of people pouring into
>   neighboring countries, and thousands crossing the Mediterranean to
>   Italy.  Muammar Gaddafi declared war on the protesters and was
>   threatening genocide, especially in Benghazi.  It was this refugee
>   crisis that caused Libyans to demand a no-fly zone, and for the
>   Arab League to do the same, after which the UN Security Council
>   passed a resolution authorizing a no-fly zone, which turned into
>   the 2011 military intervention.
>   (
>   "5-Mar-16 World View -- A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West
>   debates another military intervention"
) The invasion of
>   Libya had nothing to do with genocide and millions of refugees,
>   and had nothing to do with giving up WMDs.  

(09-05-2017, 11:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   While I agree Putin's conclusion is clearly mistaken and self
>   serving, the Libya analogy does make sense.  One can certainly
>   imagine a situation where refugees were streaming out of North
>   Korea into, say, China or South Korea, the Kim family decided that
>   this could be somehow fixed through genocide, and others called
>   for ending the Kim regime as a result.  And It does seem likely
>   that if Qadafi had nuclear weapons rather than having given up his
>   nuclear program, Europeans would have elected not to destroy his
>   regime.

>   The conclusion, though, is that we should avoid destroying regimes
>   just for "humanitarian" reasons, not that we should avoid
>   destroying nuclear programs.  Destroying North Korea's nuclear
>   program while leaving the Kim regime in place would be an
>   excellent example to show third world dictators that getting
>   nuclear weapons is not a solution.  

That reasoning could also go in the opposite direction.  If thousands
of refugees were flooding into neighboring countries and Europe to
escape Gaddafi's violence, and there was a threat of genocide in
Benghazi -- AND if Gaddafi also had nuclear weapons, the fear would
have been that Gaddafi would use them on Benghazi.  Furthermore, the
Arab League would have been even more strident in asking the West to
set up a no-fly zone -- AND they would have asked the West to bomb
Gaddafi's nuclear development facilities, for fear that Gaddafi might
use his nuclear weapons on Egypt or Tunisia.

So with that reasoning, the West would not only have been MORE likely
to set up the no-fly zone, but they would also have been MORE likely
to destroy his nuclear facilities, and MORE likely to destroy his
regime.

You seriously think France or Italy would have supported the rebellion against Qadafi after he started nuking their cities?  I would bet rather heavily that they would not even have tried in the first place, and if they were crazy enough to do it, they would have quit immediately after Qadafi nuked Marseille and Naples and said "Paris and Rome are next".

Quote:Allowing a madman to have nuclear weapons is extremely dangerous to
the world.  Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his people, why not a
nuclear weapon?  Burma's army is exterminating Rohingyas in Rakhine
state, why not with a nuclear weapon?  Putin's analogies only serve to
prove the opposite of what he's trying to claim.

Of course.  Which is why Putin's being correct that North Korea will eat grass first is exactly why he's wrong on his policy recommendation, and why we need to remove North Korea's nuclear weapons by force.
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War - by Warren Dew - 09-06-2017, 06:45 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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