09-16-2017, 10:18 PM
*** 17-Sep-17 World View -- Global food price increases affecting world political stability
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Global food price increases affecting world political stability
****
![[Image: g170916b.gif]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170916b.gif)
FAO Global Food Price Index, 1961-present
Hunger is a major source of geopolitical instability, whether on a
regional or a global level. If a man is unable to feed his family,
then he may feel he has no choice but to join an army or militia that
will give him money that he can send to his family. And if the army
or militia is fighting someone whom the leaders or the politicians
blame as being the cause of high food prices and hunger, so much the
better if he gets to kill those people.
Food prices surged throughout the 2000s decade, and then began to fall
as the global financial crisis forced to buy less expensive foods,
such as cereals and sugar instead of meat. However, food prices began
to spike again in 2016, raising concern among UN officials. Food
prices fell slightly in August, but they're still significantly higher
than in August of last year.
Regional food shortages are even worse. The situation is
unprecedented in recent times, with four countries simultaneously
facing a food crisis.
South Sudan was officially declared to be in a state of famine in
February 2017, the first such declaration in six years. Some 100,000
people in South Sudan are facing famine, while 4.9 million people are
classified as facing a food crisis.
In Yemen, 17 million people, or two-thirds of the population, are
estimated to be food insecure, with the risk of a famine declaration
very high.
In northern Nigeria, 8.1 million people are facing acute food
insecurity conditions, and in Somalia, an estimated 2.9 million people
have been severely food insecure from six months ago.
Other countries are in near-crisis condition: Afghanistan, Burundi,
the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Iraq, Myanmar and Syria.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, food shortages and
increasing food prices are major factors in leading to the next
generational crisis war, or world war. After World War II, officials
sought to end hunger forever through the Rockefeller Foundation's
"Green Revolution," which brought modern agricultural techniques and
technology to countries around the world. These technologies included
new hybrid and genetically modified seed varieties and the use of
pesticides.
Today, however, the advantages of the Green Revolution have been
dissipated. Pesticides and fertilizers have been overused, and have
been damaging the land and environment. Genetically modified seeds
and foods have generated political controversy, and have plateaued in
effectiveness.
And finally there's the unavoidable problem that population keeps
increasing. More people means there are more mouths to feed, and more
people mean that farmland is used up by urban sprawl, so there's less
food production for more people.
If men cannot feed their families, then they will go to war rather
than starve. The "good thing" about this is that a generational
crisis war kills a lot of people, making more farmland available, and
leaving fewer people to be fed. That's the way the world works.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Food Price Index and
United Nations and Guardian
****
**** UN identifies three causes of increase in world hunger
****
Some 815 million people were hungry in 2016, about 11% of the world
population, an increase of 38 million from 2015. Of these, 489
million hungry people live in countries affected by war.
In an interview with the BBC, Kostas Stamoulis of the UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) said that they've identified three
reasons for the sharp increase in the number of undernourished people
from 2015 to 2016 (my transcription):
In his last point, Stamoulis is certainly referring to, among others,
Venezuela, which wasted billions of dollars building a "Socialist
Paradise" when oil prices were high, with the result that happens 100%
of the time: A "Socialist Catastrophe," where people starve and, in
the case of Venezuela, can't even afford toilet paper. United Nations
and World Food Program
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO,
South Sudan, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia,
Rockefeller Foundation, Green Revolution,
Kostas Stamoulis, Venezuela
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Global food price increases affecting world political stability
- UN identifies three causes of increase in world hunger
****
**** Global food price increases affecting world political stability
****
FAO Global Food Price Index, 1961-present
Hunger is a major source of geopolitical instability, whether on a
regional or a global level. If a man is unable to feed his family,
then he may feel he has no choice but to join an army or militia that
will give him money that he can send to his family. And if the army
or militia is fighting someone whom the leaders or the politicians
blame as being the cause of high food prices and hunger, so much the
better if he gets to kill those people.
Food prices surged throughout the 2000s decade, and then began to fall
as the global financial crisis forced to buy less expensive foods,
such as cereals and sugar instead of meat. However, food prices began
to spike again in 2016, raising concern among UN officials. Food
prices fell slightly in August, but they're still significantly higher
than in August of last year.
Regional food shortages are even worse. The situation is
unprecedented in recent times, with four countries simultaneously
facing a food crisis.
South Sudan was officially declared to be in a state of famine in
February 2017, the first such declaration in six years. Some 100,000
people in South Sudan are facing famine, while 4.9 million people are
classified as facing a food crisis.
In Yemen, 17 million people, or two-thirds of the population, are
estimated to be food insecure, with the risk of a famine declaration
very high.
In northern Nigeria, 8.1 million people are facing acute food
insecurity conditions, and in Somalia, an estimated 2.9 million people
have been severely food insecure from six months ago.
Other countries are in near-crisis condition: Afghanistan, Burundi,
the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Iraq, Myanmar and Syria.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, food shortages and
increasing food prices are major factors in leading to the next
generational crisis war, or world war. After World War II, officials
sought to end hunger forever through the Rockefeller Foundation's
"Green Revolution," which brought modern agricultural techniques and
technology to countries around the world. These technologies included
new hybrid and genetically modified seed varieties and the use of
pesticides.
Today, however, the advantages of the Green Revolution have been
dissipated. Pesticides and fertilizers have been overused, and have
been damaging the land and environment. Genetically modified seeds
and foods have generated political controversy, and have plateaued in
effectiveness.
And finally there's the unavoidable problem that population keeps
increasing. More people means there are more mouths to feed, and more
people mean that farmland is used up by urban sprawl, so there's less
food production for more people.
If men cannot feed their families, then they will go to war rather
than starve. The "good thing" about this is that a generational
crisis war kills a lot of people, making more farmland available, and
leaving fewer people to be fed. That's the way the world works.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Food Price Index and
United Nations and Guardian
****
**** UN identifies three causes of increase in world hunger
****
Some 815 million people were hungry in 2016, about 11% of the world
population, an increase of 38 million from 2015. Of these, 489
million hungry people live in countries affected by war.
In an interview with the BBC, Kostas Stamoulis of the UN's Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) said that they've identified three
reasons for the sharp increase in the number of undernourished people
from 2015 to 2016 (my transcription):
- "One is conflict. In the last 10 years, the extent of
conflicts, the violence associated with conflicts, has increased
dramatically. Those conflicts are not necessarily among nations, but
even within nations they get regionalized and internationalized
sometimes. So 489 million people live in countries affected by
conflict 155 million children today are stunted, 122 million live in
countries affected by conflict."
- "The second reason we have found out is violent weather events,
which one or the other way may be associated with climate change, as
for instance, as those associated with El Niño, and La Niña. Those
have caused reduction in food availability in the harvests of
people."
- "And then there is a group of countries that have not been
affected either by conflict or violent weather events. Some of them
are in the Latin America, especially South America, but they have been
hit by economic slowdowns. They have based their economies on export
earnings from high commodity prices -- agriculture or non-agriculture,
and when the prices drop, their export earnings have dropped, the
economic activity has slowed down, their ability to import food has
come down, and also the ability of governments to have the necessary
fiscal revenues for social protection systems, that would protect
their people from hunger have come down."
In his last point, Stamoulis is certainly referring to, among others,
Venezuela, which wasted billions of dollars building a "Socialist
Paradise" when oil prices were high, with the result that happens 100%
of the time: A "Socialist Catastrophe," where people starve and, in
the case of Venezuela, can't even afford toilet paper. United Nations
and World Food Program
Related Articles
- Food - Green revolution v Malthus effect (28-Jun-2004)
- As population increases in India, agriculture becomes a crisis. (22-Apr-2007)
- World food price index holds steady at historic highs (09-May-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO,
South Sudan, Nigeria, Yemen, Somalia,
Rockefeller Foundation, Green Revolution,
Kostas Stamoulis, Venezuela
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
