Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Sep-17 World View -- Hamas announces it will reconcile with the Fatah and Palestinian Authority

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hamas announces it will reconcile with the Fatah and Palestinian Authority
  
• Egypt forces Hamas to capitulate to Fatah and reconcile
  

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**** Hamas announces it will reconcile with the Fatah and Palestinian Authority
****


Mahmoud Abbas ® and Hamas members (L) (Reuters)

We've heard this several times before: Hamas and and Fatah
(Palestinian Authority), the two Palestinian groups, have agreed to
reconcile and form a "unity government." The new government will
contain ministers and MPs from both Hamas and Fatah, and will govern
both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

The Palestinians took control of the Gaza Strip in 2005, after Israel
voluntarily withdrew in a move to promote a new step in the peace
process between Israel and the Palestinians. However, the terror
group Hamas took control of Gaza and used it as a launchpad for
attacks on Israel. In 2007, Fatah attempted to use force to take
control of Gaza, with the plan to form a "unity government" between
Hamas and Fatah. But the entire Mideast was shocked when Hamas overpowered and defeated the much more powerful Fatah forces.
This brief war was punctuated by many
atrocities and a great deal of vitriol, resulting in what seems a
permanent split between Hamas and Fatah.

Israel and Hamas had brief wars early in 2009, and again in 2014, and
these wars triggered renewed calls for a unity government between
Hamas and Fatah. A particularly forceful attempt in 2014 raised
hopes, but ended quickly.

So Hamas's statement on Sunday morning saying that it was ready to
reconcile with Fatah, form a unity government, and hold general
elections came as a surprise.

However, there's little reason to believe that reconciliation
will last any longer this time than it has in the past,
since neither Hamas nor Fatah have kept their promises in the past.
Times of Israel and Palestinian News Network and Arab News (Saudi Arabia) and Al-Jazeera (Qatar)

****
**** Egypt forces Hamas to capitulate to Fatah and reconcile
****

The reconciliation announcement was brought about through the
determination of Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, who called
Fatah and Hamas delegations to meet in Cairo last week for
reconcilation talks. According to reports, the Hamas delegation
refused to be in the same room as the Fatah delegation.

Hamas had refused to reconcile with Fatah in the past, but was forced
to do so now for several reasons:

• Gaza is blockaded on three sides by Israel, and on a fourth
  side by Egypt. Egypt used the blockade as leverage to force Hamas to
  agree to reconciliation.
  
  
• Mahmoud Abbas, head of Fatah's Palestinian Authority (PA), has
  been squeezing Hamas for several months by cutting payments to Israel
  for the electricity that Israel supplies to Gaza. This lead to sharp
  reductions in power in Gaza, less than four hours on some days, and
  never more than six hours. This was creating a desperate situation in
  Gaza, and reconciliation was the only way for Hamas to get the
  electricity restored.
  
  
• Hamas has been increasingly isolated internationally since June,
  when Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt
  imposed a land, sea and air blockade on Qatar. Qatar used to fund a
  large chunk of Hamas's operating budget, but has been under increasing
  financial pressure because of the blockade, and has cut its aid to
  Hamas.

All of this has lead to a financial crisis for Hamas. So with a
financial gun to its head, Hamas was forced by Egypt to announce a
capitulation, and an agreement to reconcile with Hamas.

How long this magnanimous feeling of reconciliation will last is
anyone's guess, but even if it succeeds, there may be unitended
consequences. Since the US, Europe and Israel list Hamas as a terror
organization, the West may be restricted from negotiating with or
providing aid to a unity government. Going further, if there are
elections, it's quite possible that Hamas would win the elections
giving it governing control of both Gaza and the West Bank. Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Al-Ahram (Cairo) and The National (UAE)

Related Articles:

• Hamas' stunning Gaza victory shocks entire Mideast (22-Jun-2007)
  
  
• Mideast realignment continues following the Gaza war (03-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Hamas,
Fatah, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas,
Egypt, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

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John J. Xenakis
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