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Generational Dynamics World View
Here's something that I posted in the Generational Dynamics forum in
2010, several days before posting my article on the Mongol invasion.
I copied it from a web site that's no longer available.


** A Chinese Malthus

** A Chinese Malthus: Hong Liang-ji's idea on population increase

A Chinese Malthus: Hong Liang-ji's idea on population increase

Hong Liang-ji (1746-1809) was born in Wujin county, Jiangsu
province. He was a famous man of letters and geography. In 1790, when
he was 44 years old, he became ‘jinshi'( a title given to the
successful candidate of ‘keju' examinations ). In 1799, when a big
peasant revolt had happened in Sichuan,Shanxi and Hubei provinces, he
wrote a letter attacking bad policy as one causative factor of the
revolt, thus incurring the Emperor's anger. He was exiled to Ili
district near the Russian boarder. He lived during the
Qianlong-Jiaqing period( 1736-1820 ). A hundred years after the Manchu
conquest, the economic situation developed and cultivated land
increased considerably. But population growth was more rapid than
growth in land and consumer goods. Therefore, in 1774( Qianlong 39
nian ) Wang Lun's peasant revolt happened in Shandong province. In
1796( Jiaqing yuan nian ), the Bailianjiao revolt occurred and
continued for nine years, spreading to nine provinces. These facts
stimulated Hong's thinking.

Hong continued on the theme of Xu Guang-qi (1562-1633 ), who said that
population doubled every thirty years, and Hong developed it as
follows :

‘As peace has existed for a long time, the population has increased
five times from thirty years ago, ten times from sixty years ago. If
compared with a hundred years ago or more, it has increased more than
twenty times.'

‘If a man marry and make three children, and those children also
marry, the family will be eight. If each child marries and makes three
grandsons, and they also marry, the family will be more than twenty,
although some of them will pass away. Thus the family will be more
than fifty or sixty persons including the next generations. Of course
some families will disappear, but some prosperous families will
compensate for the decreased number.' (Hong Bei-jiang Shiwenji, Poems
and Letters of Hong Bei-jiang , Bei-jiang is a pen name of Hong
Liang-ji).

On the other hand, he observed, the increase of social wealth such as
cultivated land and houses is very slow. So population increase
exceeds by a great degree that of land and houses. ‘Therefore land and
houses are always inadequate, households and population are always
surplus.' Hong's view on the relation between cultivated land and
population has been regarded as very similar to that of Malthus's view
( 1766-1834 ).

Then what were the bad results of excess population and Hong's
solution for the population problem ? In the first place, the standard
of living will decrease rapidly. ‘If one family with four persons has
ten rooms and 100 mu ( a Qing measure, which equals about 6.0 hectare)
land, they are rich. In the sons' days, even if the family members are
fewer than ten persons, rooms and land will be scarcely enough. In the
grandsons' days ‘family members will be more than twenty persons, so
even if they eat measuring their share and live measuring their space,
those will certainly be insufficient.'( Hong Bei-jiang )

In the second place, inflation will bother people's lives. ‘Nowadays
peasants have increased more than ten times within the same
land. Merchants have increased more than ten times within the same
commodity.' Thus the rice price increased six or seven times, and the
cotton cloth price increased five or six times. Some honest people
even if they worked hard their whole lives, could not escape from
hunger and coldness.

Lastly, unemployment and social unrest. ‘When households increase ten
times compared with former days, those who live in idleness increase
several times more than ten.' In this situation if natural disasters
such as floods and droughts attack people, they cannot wait for death
to come. They will make rebellion.

Hong's solutions are two. One is ‘ heaven earth adjustment', which
means adjustment by floods, droughts and epidemic diseases. The other
one is ‘ Emperor's adjustment', which means development of production,
immigration for reclamation, decrease of taxation, opposition to
luxuriousness and annexation of land.

http://www25.big.or.jp/~yabuki/doc/po199003.htm
[This web page is no longer available.]
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 09-18-2017, 09:47 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

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