10-02-2017, 11:13 PM
*** 3-Oct-17 World View -- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
****
![[Image: g171002b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171002b.jpg)
Voting on the Kurdistan independence referendum on September 25 in Erbil (AFP)
Kurdistan has not yet declared independence from Iraq, but it may
happen as a result of a September 25 independence referendum that
passed overwhelmingly, according to Kurdistan president Masoud
Barzani. However, Barzani says that at this time rather than declare
independence, he wants simply to negotiate with the Baghdad.
Nonetheless, if there is any violence in Kurdistan, it will be over
Kirkuk.
Starting in 2014, Kirkuk has been under frequent attack by the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and ISIS has
always been repelled by the Kurdish Peshmerga militia forces. Now
that ISIS has been expelled from Mosul and the danger to Kirkuk from
ISIS has passed, Kurdistan's leader Masoud Barzani is saying that
Kirkuk belongs to a Kurdistan.
Iraq's parliament has responded by voting to give a mandate to Iraq's
prime minister Haider al-Abadi to deploy troops in Kirkuk, and take
control of the city from the Kurds. The deployment would be in
response to the independence referendum, and the fear that Barzani
would declare independence.
The commander of the Peshmerga units in Kirkuk says:
<QUOTE>"We cannot agree with the decision of the Iraqi
authorities to send troops to Kirkuk. If the Iraqi Army enters
Kirkuk it will face our stiff resistance.
The defense of Kirkuk has taken the lives of hundreds of Peshmerga
fighters and city residents. Now, the Kurdish forces and civilians
in Kirkuk are ready to continue defending the city. There isn’t
such a force in the world that could take Kirkuk away from the
Kurds."<END QUOTE>
Kurdistan produces over 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil, mostly
from oil fields around Kirkuk, and this oil production forms the
greatest part of Kurdistan's income. Kurdistan sells the oil through
a pipeline that passes through Turkey. Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to close the pipeline, but hasn't done
so yet.
The fact that Kirkuk is oil-rich is just one of the reasons why it's
become a flash point. The other reason is that, in addition
to Kurds, the city is heavily populated with Arabs and Turkmens,
and these populations do not wish to live under Kurdish control.
According to reports, Iraqi Shia militias loyal to Iran would like to
go into Kirkuk and displace the Peshmerga militias. However, we've
already seen this week how heavy-handed military forces in Catalonia
have hardened the demands for independence, and the same thing would
happen in Kirkuk. Since these Shia militias are controlled by Iran,
al-Abadi may not be able to prevent them from attacking Kirkuk.
Foreign Policy and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Oil Price and Quartz
Related Articles
****
**** Significant differences in the three recent independence movements
****
During the last few days, I've reported on three different
independence movements -- in Catalonia from Spain, in the Anglophone
Southern Cameroons from Francophone Cameroon, and in Kurdistan from
Iraq. The Kurdistan case is substantially different from the other
two.
In Catalonia, Spain's national police resorted to physical violence to
keep people from voting. Video showed people being kicked and thrown
and women pulled by their hair away from the polling stations.
Reports from other parts of Spain suggest that many people outside of
Catalonia say that the violence on Catalans was deserved.
In Anglophone Southern Cameroons, Cameroon's Francophone national
police shot and killed at least seven people over the weekend and
wounded dozens of others in an attempt to stop peaceful
demonstrations. An official was quoted as saying, "What can the
Anglophones do? If they don’t want to go to school, so much the worse
for them."
In both of these cases, we clearly see a resurgence of vitriolic
xenophobic attitudes that gave rise to previous generational crisis
wars -- the Spanish Civil War in the late 1930s, and the bloody civil
war in the Cameroon colonies in the late 1950s, respectively.
However, we're not seeing anything remotely like that in the Kurdistan
separatist movement in Iraq. Nobody tried to prevent the independence
referendum that took place in Kurdistan on September 25. Kurdistan
president Masoud Barzani says that the referendum passed
overwhelmingly, but Barzani says that rather than declare
independence, he wants simply to negotiate with the Baghdad. Baghdad
and Iran are sending troops to the Kurdistan border, but there's no
sign that they plan to cross the border.
These are the kinds of things that one looks for when doing a
Generational Dynamics analysis of a country or event. There is no
apparent xenophobic vitriol between the Iraqi Kurds and the Iraqi
Shias, as there was between the two pairs of groups in Spain and
Cameroon, respectively. And, as usual, what's important in a
generational analysis is not the behaviors and attitudes of the
politicians, but the attitudes and behaviors of entire populations or
generations.
So the most likely outcome of the independence referendum in
Kurdistan, based on the information so far, is that there will be
political posturing and threats, but no actual violence or military
confrontation. Of course, this could change at any time, especially
if Shia militias controlled by Iran invade Kirkuk to displace the
Peshmerga. But without something like that, violence is not expected.
It's doubtful that the situations in Catalonia or Southern Cameroons
will lead to independence either, but the difference is that we can
expect to see more than political posturing, including actual
violence. And if fact there's been violence already, and the level of
violence is likely to grow. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Rudaw (Kurdistan)
and Tehran Times and Al Monitor
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurds, Erbil, Kurdistan Region,
Masoud Barzani, Turkey, Syria, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Haider al-Abadi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kirkuk, Peshmerga,
Cameroon, Southern Cameroons, Spain, Catalonia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
- Significant differences in the three recent independence movements
****
**** Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum
****
Voting on the Kurdistan independence referendum on September 25 in Erbil (AFP)
Kurdistan has not yet declared independence from Iraq, but it may
happen as a result of a September 25 independence referendum that
passed overwhelmingly, according to Kurdistan president Masoud
Barzani. However, Barzani says that at this time rather than declare
independence, he wants simply to negotiate with the Baghdad.
Nonetheless, if there is any violence in Kurdistan, it will be over
Kirkuk.
Starting in 2014, Kirkuk has been under frequent attack by the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and ISIS has
always been repelled by the Kurdish Peshmerga militia forces. Now
that ISIS has been expelled from Mosul and the danger to Kirkuk from
ISIS has passed, Kurdistan's leader Masoud Barzani is saying that
Kirkuk belongs to a Kurdistan.
Iraq's parliament has responded by voting to give a mandate to Iraq's
prime minister Haider al-Abadi to deploy troops in Kirkuk, and take
control of the city from the Kurds. The deployment would be in
response to the independence referendum, and the fear that Barzani
would declare independence.
The commander of the Peshmerga units in Kirkuk says:
<QUOTE>"We cannot agree with the decision of the Iraqi
authorities to send troops to Kirkuk. If the Iraqi Army enters
Kirkuk it will face our stiff resistance.
The defense of Kirkuk has taken the lives of hundreds of Peshmerga
fighters and city residents. Now, the Kurdish forces and civilians
in Kirkuk are ready to continue defending the city. There isn’t
such a force in the world that could take Kirkuk away from the
Kurds."<END QUOTE>
Kurdistan produces over 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil, mostly
from oil fields around Kirkuk, and this oil production forms the
greatest part of Kurdistan's income. Kurdistan sells the oil through
a pipeline that passes through Turkey. Turkey's president Recep
Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to close the pipeline, but hasn't done
so yet.
The fact that Kirkuk is oil-rich is just one of the reasons why it's
become a flash point. The other reason is that, in addition
to Kurds, the city is heavily populated with Arabs and Turkmens,
and these populations do not wish to live under Kurdish control.
According to reports, Iraqi Shia militias loyal to Iran would like to
go into Kirkuk and displace the Peshmerga militias. However, we've
already seen this week how heavy-handed military forces in Catalonia
have hardened the demands for independence, and the same thing would
happen in Kirkuk. Since these Shia militias are controlled by Iran,
al-Abadi may not be able to prevent them from attacking Kirkuk.
Foreign Policy and Sputnik News (Moscow) and Oil Price and Quartz
Related Articles
- Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum (27-Sep-2017)
- Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul (22-Mar-2017)
****
**** Significant differences in the three recent independence movements
****
During the last few days, I've reported on three different
independence movements -- in Catalonia from Spain, in the Anglophone
Southern Cameroons from Francophone Cameroon, and in Kurdistan from
Iraq. The Kurdistan case is substantially different from the other
two.
In Catalonia, Spain's national police resorted to physical violence to
keep people from voting. Video showed people being kicked and thrown
and women pulled by their hair away from the polling stations.
Reports from other parts of Spain suggest that many people outside of
Catalonia say that the violence on Catalans was deserved.
In Anglophone Southern Cameroons, Cameroon's Francophone national
police shot and killed at least seven people over the weekend and
wounded dozens of others in an attempt to stop peaceful
demonstrations. An official was quoted as saying, "What can the
Anglophones do? If they don’t want to go to school, so much the worse
for them."
In both of these cases, we clearly see a resurgence of vitriolic
xenophobic attitudes that gave rise to previous generational crisis
wars -- the Spanish Civil War in the late 1930s, and the bloody civil
war in the Cameroon colonies in the late 1950s, respectively.
However, we're not seeing anything remotely like that in the Kurdistan
separatist movement in Iraq. Nobody tried to prevent the independence
referendum that took place in Kurdistan on September 25. Kurdistan
president Masoud Barzani says that the referendum passed
overwhelmingly, but Barzani says that rather than declare
independence, he wants simply to negotiate with the Baghdad. Baghdad
and Iran are sending troops to the Kurdistan border, but there's no
sign that they plan to cross the border.
These are the kinds of things that one looks for when doing a
Generational Dynamics analysis of a country or event. There is no
apparent xenophobic vitriol between the Iraqi Kurds and the Iraqi
Shias, as there was between the two pairs of groups in Spain and
Cameroon, respectively. And, as usual, what's important in a
generational analysis is not the behaviors and attitudes of the
politicians, but the attitudes and behaviors of entire populations or
generations.
So the most likely outcome of the independence referendum in
Kurdistan, based on the information so far, is that there will be
political posturing and threats, but no actual violence or military
confrontation. Of course, this could change at any time, especially
if Shia militias controlled by Iran invade Kirkuk to displace the
Peshmerga. But without something like that, violence is not expected.
It's doubtful that the situations in Catalonia or Southern Cameroons
will lead to independence either, but the difference is that we can
expect to see more than political posturing, including actual
violence. And if fact there's been violence already, and the level of
violence is likely to grow. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Rudaw (Kurdistan)
and Tehran Times and Al Monitor
Related Articles
- Cameroon police shoot and kill English-speaking protesters on Sunday (02-Oct-2017)
- Catalonia referendum poised to go ahead despite Spain's harsh repressive measures (01-Oct-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurds, Erbil, Kurdistan Region,
Masoud Barzani, Turkey, Syria, Iran,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Haider al-Abadi, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kirkuk, Peshmerga,
Cameroon, Southern Cameroons, Spain, Catalonia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
