10-03-2017, 08:50 AM
(10-01-2017, 07:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > From where I stand, that may be accurate for Kissinger, but
> exactly wrong for Bannon; he seems to want to start a trade war
> with China that will necessarily lead to a hot war with
> China.
I don't believe that's what's going on. I believe that Bannon is
using "trade war" as a metaphor for a real war, and is using the
metaphor to raise the alarm about China so that the US won't be
unprepared the way the US was when Japan struck Pearl Harbor.
(10-01-2017, 07:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Avoiding the world war is impossible, but minimizing its impact on
> the US is not. Your view that the US will necessarily be on the
> opposite side from China is, as I've pointed out before, based on
> misreadings of Chinese history; the last time you claimed this, it
> was on the basis that China was the successor state to the
> mongols. In reality, the successor state to the mongols, to the
> extent there is one, is Kazakhstan, or more broadly the central
> Asian Islamic states. A crisis war that starts with them may
> actually be relatively benign to the US, since it hits Asia first,
> and allows us to wait and step in on the appropriate side to
> maintain a balance of power.
You may be right that world will first break out in Central Asia. But
if so, it will soon pull in India, Pakistan, Iran and Russia.
Pakistan will be on the side of China, India will be at war with
Pakistan and China, and in that war, the US, Russia and Iran will be
on the side of India. So the US will be at war with China. "All
roads lead to Rome."
(10-03-2017, 08:21 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Interesting point about Iraq and Kurdistan. They're not in a
> crisis era, are they?
The last crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war, which climaxed in 1988
when Saddam used mustard gas on the Iranians and the Kurds.
So Iran, Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan are in a generational Awakening
era.
Furthermore, it's possible that the reason that relations are
relatively friend between Erbil and Tehran is because they were both
enemies of Saddam.
However, Turkey is definitely in a crisis era, and the Turkish army
may assert itself in Kirkuk, "for the protection of the Turkmens."
