10-22-2017, 10:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2017, 10:40 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 23-Oct-17 World View -- Big election win for Japan's Shinzo Abe may mean end of pacifism
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe wins a 'super-majority' in Japan's lower house
****
![[Image: g171022b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171022b.jpg)
Japan's Shinzo Abe campaigning (CNN)
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by prime minister
Shinzo Abe, won a landslide victory in a snap election on
Sunday, reaching a two-thirds "super-majority" in the lower
house of Japan's parliament.
When Abe called for the snap election last month, many analysts
considered it a high-risk gamble because his approval rating had been
falling. (When Britain's Theresa May called for a similar UK election
earlier this year, the result was political disaster.)
Abe's opponents accused him of calling the snap election to create a
distraction from the corruption scandal he was facing, based on
accusations that he had used his influence as prime minister to help a
private university and an ultra-nationalist school in their business
deals with the government.
Whatever the motivation, the gamble seems to have paid off in a big
way. Abe denied that the scandals had anything to do with this
actions. Instead, he took a nationalistic stance against North
Korea's growing belligerence and threats. North Korea launched two
ballistic missile tests, on August 28 and September 14, respectively,
with the missiles flying over Japanese airspace.
On Saturday, Abe said to supporters:
<QUOTE>"We can no longer let ourselves be fooled by North
Korea. We cannot succumb to its threats. By taking advantage of
our strong diplomacy, we have to make sure the North will have no
other option but change its policy and return to the negotiating
table."<END QUOTE>
Abe has also gained popularity by "Abenomics," a combination of
generous government spending and central bank monetary easing.
The landslide win makes it likely that Abe, who took office in
December 2012, will next year win a third three-year term as LDP
leader and prime minister. Japan Times and BBC
****
**** Abe promises to change the constitution to end Japan's pacifism
****
Prior to Sunday's election, Shinzo Abe's LDP was able to muster a
two-thirds "super-majority," when combined with its coalition partner
Komeito. If the final vote count goes as expected, then the LDP will
have a super-majority by itself in the lower house, though a coalition
will still be required in the upper house. A two-thirds majority is
required to amend the constitution.
Abe has said repeatedly that he'd like to amend the constitution
to repeal Article 9, which says:
<QUOTE>"CHAPTER II - RENUNCIATION OF WAR
Article 9. Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on
justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a
sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as
means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land,
sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be
maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be
recognized."<END QUOTE>
Japan actually has very powerful land, sea and air forces, arguably
in violation of Article 9. But they've never fired a shot at
an enemy. They're known as "Self-Defense Forces" (SDF), and are
currently forbidden from participating in any military action
except on Japanese soil in case of foreign attack.
In 2015, Abe was able to get the parliament to reinterpret the
self-defense clause to mean "collective self-defense." Under this
interpretation, military action would be permitted anywhere in the
world when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. I
discussed the meaning of "collective self-defense" in detail in 2014
in "5-May-2014 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.
A lot of international media discussions of the election are blaming
Article 9 on the United States, for imposing it on Japan at the end of
World War II. It's true that American General Douglas MacArthur did
require the self-defense clause to be included in Japan's post-war
constitution, but that was 70 years ago. Japan could have amended its
constitution at many points in the last seven decades, but chose not
to. The self-defense clause has been very popular, not only because
many people believe that it makes war less likely, but also because
the Japanese people save a lot of money by just leaving it to the
United States to provide military protection. Even the
reinterpretation as "collective self-defense" was and is highly
controversial.
For Shinzo Abe, amending Article 9 is personal, in that he's following
in the path of his grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, who served as prime
minister of Japan from 1957-60. Kishi disliked the pacifism clause
because it made Japan too dependent on the United States, and he
wanted Japan to be completely self-reliant in national defense. For
Abe, amending this clause would fulfill his grandfather's wish.
Earlier this year, in a statement commemorating the 70th anniversary
of the constitution, Abe set a 2020 deadline for amending the
constitution:
<QUOTE>"I believe that we must establish the status of the SDF
explicitly in the constitution during our generation's lifetime
and leave no room for contending the SDF could be
unconstitutional. I strongly wish to make 2020 the year that the
reborn Japan will make a new start."<END QUOTE>
Ironically, it's been belligerent actions by China and North Korea
that may have made it possible for Abe to get the constitution
amended. In particular, the people of Japan (and South Korea) are no
longer as certain as they were in the past that the United States
would protect them. But with the United States increasingly concerned
about protecting itself, Japan and South Korea are both now looking
for ways to increase their own military capabilities, and not have to
depend on the US as much. With the Japanese people becoming
increasingly anxious, Abe may succeed in getting the constitution
amended by 2020, despite the fierce opposition. Kyodo News and NBC News and South China Morning Post and CNN
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Abenomics,
Liberal Democratic Party, LDP,
North Korea, China, Self-defense forces, SDF,
Article 9, Collective self-defense, Douglas MacArthur,
Kishi Nobusuke, South Korea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Japan's Shinzo Abe wins a 'super-majority' in Japan's lower house
- Abe promises to change the constitution to end Japan's pacifism
****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe wins a 'super-majority' in Japan's lower house
****
Japan's Shinzo Abe campaigning (CNN)
Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by prime minister
Shinzo Abe, won a landslide victory in a snap election on
Sunday, reaching a two-thirds "super-majority" in the lower
house of Japan's parliament.
When Abe called for the snap election last month, many analysts
considered it a high-risk gamble because his approval rating had been
falling. (When Britain's Theresa May called for a similar UK election
earlier this year, the result was political disaster.)
Abe's opponents accused him of calling the snap election to create a
distraction from the corruption scandal he was facing, based on
accusations that he had used his influence as prime minister to help a
private university and an ultra-nationalist school in their business
deals with the government.
Whatever the motivation, the gamble seems to have paid off in a big
way. Abe denied that the scandals had anything to do with this
actions. Instead, he took a nationalistic stance against North
Korea's growing belligerence and threats. North Korea launched two
ballistic missile tests, on August 28 and September 14, respectively,
with the missiles flying over Japanese airspace.
On Saturday, Abe said to supporters:
<QUOTE>"We can no longer let ourselves be fooled by North
Korea. We cannot succumb to its threats. By taking advantage of
our strong diplomacy, we have to make sure the North will have no
other option but change its policy and return to the negotiating
table."<END QUOTE>
Abe has also gained popularity by "Abenomics," a combination of
generous government spending and central bank monetary easing.
The landslide win makes it likely that Abe, who took office in
December 2012, will next year win a third three-year term as LDP
leader and prime minister. Japan Times and BBC
****
**** Abe promises to change the constitution to end Japan's pacifism
****
Prior to Sunday's election, Shinzo Abe's LDP was able to muster a
two-thirds "super-majority," when combined with its coalition partner
Komeito. If the final vote count goes as expected, then the LDP will
have a super-majority by itself in the lower house, though a coalition
will still be required in the upper house. A two-thirds majority is
required to amend the constitution.
Abe has said repeatedly that he'd like to amend the constitution
to repeal Article 9, which says:
<QUOTE>"CHAPTER II - RENUNCIATION OF WAR
Article 9. Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on
justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a
sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as
means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land,
sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be
maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be
recognized."<END QUOTE>
Japan actually has very powerful land, sea and air forces, arguably
in violation of Article 9. But they've never fired a shot at
an enemy. They're known as "Self-Defense Forces" (SDF), and are
currently forbidden from participating in any military action
except on Japanese soil in case of foreign attack.
In 2015, Abe was able to get the parliament to reinterpret the
self-defense clause to mean "collective self-defense." Under this
interpretation, military action would be permitted anywhere in the
world when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. I
discussed the meaning of "collective self-defense" in detail in 2014
in "5-May-2014 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.
A lot of international media discussions of the election are blaming
Article 9 on the United States, for imposing it on Japan at the end of
World War II. It's true that American General Douglas MacArthur did
require the self-defense clause to be included in Japan's post-war
constitution, but that was 70 years ago. Japan could have amended its
constitution at many points in the last seven decades, but chose not
to. The self-defense clause has been very popular, not only because
many people believe that it makes war less likely, but also because
the Japanese people save a lot of money by just leaving it to the
United States to provide military protection. Even the
reinterpretation as "collective self-defense" was and is highly
controversial.
For Shinzo Abe, amending Article 9 is personal, in that he's following
in the path of his grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, who served as prime
minister of Japan from 1957-60. Kishi disliked the pacifism clause
because it made Japan too dependent on the United States, and he
wanted Japan to be completely self-reliant in national defense. For
Abe, amending this clause would fulfill his grandfather's wish.
Earlier this year, in a statement commemorating the 70th anniversary
of the constitution, Abe set a 2020 deadline for amending the
constitution:
<QUOTE>"I believe that we must establish the status of the SDF
explicitly in the constitution during our generation's lifetime
and leave no room for contending the SDF could be
unconstitutional. I strongly wish to make 2020 the year that the
reborn Japan will make a new start."<END QUOTE>
Ironically, it's been belligerent actions by China and North Korea
that may have made it possible for Abe to get the constitution
amended. In particular, the people of Japan (and South Korea) are no
longer as certain as they were in the past that the United States
would protect them. But with the United States increasingly concerned
about protecting itself, Japan and South Korea are both now looking
for ways to increase their own military capabilities, and not have to
depend on the US as much. With the Japanese people becoming
increasingly anxious, Abe may succeed in getting the constitution
amended by 2020, despite the fierce opposition. Kyodo News and NBC News and South China Morning Post and CNN
Related Articles
- North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
- Japan's election opens the way to repeal 'pacifism' constitution clause (12-Jul-2016)
- Russia and Japan fail to agree on ending World War II (17-Dec-2016)
- Japan and Russia may settle post-World War II Kuril Islands dispute (03-Sep-2016)
- Japan's election opens the way to repeal 'pacifism' constitution clause (12-Jul-2016)
- Japanese warships visit Vietnam, as China moves warplanes into South China Sea (14-Apr-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Abenomics,
Liberal Democratic Party, LDP,
North Korea, China, Self-defense forces, SDF,
Article 9, Collective self-defense, Douglas MacArthur,
Kishi Nobusuke, South Korea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
