10-25-2017, 09:58 PM
*** 26-Oct-17 World View -- UN Secretary-General in Central African Republic begs for more funding
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** UN Secretary-General in Central African Republic begs for more funding
****
![[Image: g171025b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171025b.jpg)
Young Christian militiamen pose in southeastern Central African Republic on August 16. (AFP)
The ethnic and religious civil war that began in Central African
Republic (CAR) in 2013 was supposed to have ended long before now, but
instead the violence has been increasing steadily, and at the same
time, the amount of funding for peacekeeping efforts from donor
nations is decreasing, leading to fears of an even larger bloodbath
than we've seen so far.
At a press conference in CAR on Wednesday, United Nations
Secretary-General António Guterres said:
<QUOTE>"We need the commitment of the international community
not only to reduce this suffering, but because there is an
opportunity to build a new Central African Republic in peace and
security.
This international solidarity can allow the Central African
Republic to engage in a process of development for the benefit of
all its people.
I am optimistic [that] it is the moment for the international
community to commit because it is worthwhile."<END QUOTE>
Well, if Guterres is really that optimistic, then he's delusional.
CAR is in the midst of a generational crisis war, and a generational
crisis war can only end in one way. This is what politicians don't
understand. Since 2013, they've sent in different waves of
peacekeepers, they've had several elections for president, they've
even had a visit from the Pope. Each of these events was supposed to
bring an end to the war, but that hope was always delusional. A
generational crisis war comes from the people, not from the
politicians or the religious leaders. Central African Republic is a
huge country, and the war is both religious and ethnic, pitting
Christians against Muslims and land-owning farmer tribes against
nomadic herder tribes.
Not surprisingly, there is often an alignment between the
farmer-herder fault lines and the sectarian fault lines. In Central
African Republic, the Muslims are mostly from nomadic herder tribes,
while the Christians are mostly from land-owning farmer tribes.
However, this division isn't monolithic. As I described
a couple of months ago, there are also Muslim
farmer tribes, and in some cases the Muslim and Christian farmer
tribes are banding together to fight against the Muslim herder tribes.
The politicians and religious leaders are not going to end this war.
The people of CAR will have to end it on their own. From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the only way that a generational crisis
war can end is with an explosive climax. The climax could be
literally explosive, as in the case of the firebombing of Dresden and
Tokyo and the nuking of Hiroshima at the end of World War II. But
more likely it's a genocidal explosion that's so horrific that both
sides decide that they have to stop fighting. An example is the
Rwanda genocide of 1994, when Hutus killed almost a million Tutsis in
three months.
It's impossible to predict what sort of explosive climax will end the
CAR war, or when it will occur. But it's likely to involve millions
of people and be a bloodbath of a kind that's usually remembered for
decades or even centuries. And increased international funding of
peacekeepers will do nothing to affect it. Newsweek and United Nations
and Anadolu
****
**** Bangassou becomes the most dangerous town in Central African Republic
****
A United Nations situation report on Central African Republic (CAR)
indicates that violence in CAR has been increasing steadily since
October 2016, and has become increasingly widespread, affect more and
more regions of the country. It's possible that this is building to
some kind of explosive genocidal climax.
According to Tuesday's situation report:
<QUOTE>"Since October 2016, violent clashes and
inter-communal tensions fueled by armed groups have continuously
increased in the Central African Republic (CAR). In the absence of
an effective judicial system and basic services by the public
administration, armed groups have continued to perpetrate violent
and destabilizing acts, of which the civilian population is the
main victim. The targeting of minorities, including women and
children, has resurfaced, with killings and attacks against
communities multiplying.
Conflict and forced displacement is increasingly widespread and
impacting previously unaffected parts of the country. Today, the
CAR is one of the few countries in the world where almost one
person out of two depends on aid to survive.
The number of people displaced has reached an ever-recorded high
of 1.1 million people. As the crisis further expands towards the
East and North West of the country, there are new massive
displacements and there is a significant risk that the condition
of people previously displaced that remain in camps will
deteriorate. Nearly one family out of four has already been forced
to flee. In July 2017, the number of IDPs exceeded 600,000, which
represents an increase of almost 50 per cent since
January."<END QUOTE>
Since 2013, we've described a number of bloody clashes between Muslims
and Christians in different regions of CAR. Today, the most dangerous
town in CAR is the southeastern town of Bangassou.
Bangassou is a Christian-controlled town of about 35,000. In May,
Christian militias launched an assault on other armed groups,
including pro-Muslim groups or militias from the Fula ethnic group.
Seventy-six civilians and six peacekeeping troops were killed.
Moroccan peacekeepers rescued about 2,000 people and brought them to
the town's Catholic church compound. Since then, unidentified gunmen
have been shooting at the church on an almost daily basis. About a
million people have been displaced from their homes. All the
businesses and buildings have been deserted.
Because there have been increased attacks on UN peacekeepers, in
Bangassou and elsewhere, at a ceremony on Tuesday, Secretary-General
António Guterres paid tribute to the peacekeepers:
<QUOTE>"I want to say that we need to make sure that the
world fully appreciates the heroic contributions of peacekeepers
protecting civilians, sometimes in extremely difficult
circumstances, like the ones we face in the Central African
Republic."<END QUOTE>
It's a great sentiment, but as a practical matter, there have been few
situations where peacekeeping forces have accomplished much. In CAR,
peacekeeping forces have been able to keep the two sides apart in the
capital city Bangui, but haven't been effective elsewhere.
The violence in Bangassou is being repeated in towns and villages all
across CAR. Sometimes it's Muslims slaughtering Christians, or
vice-versa, or sometimes it's one ethnic group slaughtering another,
irrespective of religion. The current peacekeeping force's mandate
expires on November 15. Guterres has urged the UN Security Council to
add 900 troops to the 12,500 already there, to enable the force "to
shape and influence security situations, rather than react to them."
In a country of 4.7 million people, in thousands of villages at war
with each other, it's hard to see what 900 additional troops is going
to accomplish. UN ReliefWeb and Gulf Times and AFP and United Nations
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR,
António Guterres, Bangassou
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- UN Secretary-General in Central African Republic begs for more funding
- Bangassou becomes the most dangerous town in Central African Republic
****
**** UN Secretary-General in Central African Republic begs for more funding
****
Young Christian militiamen pose in southeastern Central African Republic on August 16. (AFP)
The ethnic and religious civil war that began in Central African
Republic (CAR) in 2013 was supposed to have ended long before now, but
instead the violence has been increasing steadily, and at the same
time, the amount of funding for peacekeeping efforts from donor
nations is decreasing, leading to fears of an even larger bloodbath
than we've seen so far.
At a press conference in CAR on Wednesday, United Nations
Secretary-General António Guterres said:
<QUOTE>"We need the commitment of the international community
not only to reduce this suffering, but because there is an
opportunity to build a new Central African Republic in peace and
security.
This international solidarity can allow the Central African
Republic to engage in a process of development for the benefit of
all its people.
I am optimistic [that] it is the moment for the international
community to commit because it is worthwhile."<END QUOTE>
Well, if Guterres is really that optimistic, then he's delusional.
CAR is in the midst of a generational crisis war, and a generational
crisis war can only end in one way. This is what politicians don't
understand. Since 2013, they've sent in different waves of
peacekeepers, they've had several elections for president, they've
even had a visit from the Pope. Each of these events was supposed to
bring an end to the war, but that hope was always delusional. A
generational crisis war comes from the people, not from the
politicians or the religious leaders. Central African Republic is a
huge country, and the war is both religious and ethnic, pitting
Christians against Muslims and land-owning farmer tribes against
nomadic herder tribes.
Not surprisingly, there is often an alignment between the
farmer-herder fault lines and the sectarian fault lines. In Central
African Republic, the Muslims are mostly from nomadic herder tribes,
while the Christians are mostly from land-owning farmer tribes.
However, this division isn't monolithic. As I described
a couple of months ago, there are also Muslim
farmer tribes, and in some cases the Muslim and Christian farmer
tribes are banding together to fight against the Muslim herder tribes.
The politicians and religious leaders are not going to end this war.
The people of CAR will have to end it on their own. From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the only way that a generational crisis
war can end is with an explosive climax. The climax could be
literally explosive, as in the case of the firebombing of Dresden and
Tokyo and the nuking of Hiroshima at the end of World War II. But
more likely it's a genocidal explosion that's so horrific that both
sides decide that they have to stop fighting. An example is the
Rwanda genocide of 1994, when Hutus killed almost a million Tutsis in
three months.
It's impossible to predict what sort of explosive climax will end the
CAR war, or when it will occur. But it's likely to involve millions
of people and be a bloodbath of a kind that's usually remembered for
decades or even centuries. And increased international funding of
peacekeepers will do nothing to affect it. Newsweek and United Nations
and Anadolu
****
**** Bangassou becomes the most dangerous town in Central African Republic
****
A United Nations situation report on Central African Republic (CAR)
indicates that violence in CAR has been increasing steadily since
October 2016, and has become increasingly widespread, affect more and
more regions of the country. It's possible that this is building to
some kind of explosive genocidal climax.
According to Tuesday's situation report:
<QUOTE>"Since October 2016, violent clashes and
inter-communal tensions fueled by armed groups have continuously
increased in the Central African Republic (CAR). In the absence of
an effective judicial system and basic services by the public
administration, armed groups have continued to perpetrate violent
and destabilizing acts, of which the civilian population is the
main victim. The targeting of minorities, including women and
children, has resurfaced, with killings and attacks against
communities multiplying.
Conflict and forced displacement is increasingly widespread and
impacting previously unaffected parts of the country. Today, the
CAR is one of the few countries in the world where almost one
person out of two depends on aid to survive.
The number of people displaced has reached an ever-recorded high
of 1.1 million people. As the crisis further expands towards the
East and North West of the country, there are new massive
displacements and there is a significant risk that the condition
of people previously displaced that remain in camps will
deteriorate. Nearly one family out of four has already been forced
to flee. In July 2017, the number of IDPs exceeded 600,000, which
represents an increase of almost 50 per cent since
January."<END QUOTE>
Since 2013, we've described a number of bloody clashes between Muslims
and Christians in different regions of CAR. Today, the most dangerous
town in CAR is the southeastern town of Bangassou.
Bangassou is a Christian-controlled town of about 35,000. In May,
Christian militias launched an assault on other armed groups,
including pro-Muslim groups or militias from the Fula ethnic group.
Seventy-six civilians and six peacekeeping troops were killed.
Moroccan peacekeepers rescued about 2,000 people and brought them to
the town's Catholic church compound. Since then, unidentified gunmen
have been shooting at the church on an almost daily basis. About a
million people have been displaced from their homes. All the
businesses and buildings have been deserted.
Because there have been increased attacks on UN peacekeepers, in
Bangassou and elsewhere, at a ceremony on Tuesday, Secretary-General
António Guterres paid tribute to the peacekeepers:
<QUOTE>"I want to say that we need to make sure that the
world fully appreciates the heroic contributions of peacekeepers
protecting civilians, sometimes in extremely difficult
circumstances, like the ones we face in the Central African
Republic."<END QUOTE>
It's a great sentiment, but as a practical matter, there have been few
situations where peacekeeping forces have accomplished much. In CAR,
peacekeeping forces have been able to keep the two sides apart in the
capital city Bangui, but haven't been effective elsewhere.
The violence in Bangassou is being repeated in towns and villages all
across CAR. Sometimes it's Muslims slaughtering Christians, or
vice-versa, or sometimes it's one ethnic group slaughtering another,
irrespective of religion. The current peacekeeping force's mandate
expires on November 15. Guterres has urged the UN Security Council to
add 900 troops to the 12,500 already there, to enable the force "to
shape and influence security situations, rather than react to them."
In a country of 4.7 million people, in thousands of villages at war
with each other, it's hard to see what 900 additional troops is going
to accomplish. UN ReliefWeb and Gulf Times and AFP and United Nations
Related Articles
- UN Human Rights chief warns of 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing' in Central African Republic (11-Aug-2017)
- Central African Republic war morphs from religious to ethnic war (01-Mar-2017)
- New armed militia emerges in Central African Republic: Return, Reclamation, Rehabilitation (3R) (06-Jan-2017)
- France says Central African Republic has totally collapsed (11-Apr-2014)
- Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge (20-Jan-2014)
- Renewed violence in Central African Republic despite peacekeepers (11-Oct-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR,
António Guterres, Bangassou
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
