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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 2-Nov-17 World View -- Israel and Saudi Arabia prepare for war with Hezbollah, as Syria war winds down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Israel and Hezbollah prepare for war with each other
  • Saudi Arabian minister calls for 'toppling Hezbollah'

****
**** Israel and Hezbollah prepare for war with each other
****


[Image: g171101b.jpg]
Hezbollah supporters chant slogans and gesture on al-Quds day in southern Lebanon on June 23 (Reuters)

With the rise of hopes, delusional or not, that the war in Syria will
settle down within a few months, all the players are now looking ahead
to the wars to follow.

Hezbollah, Iran's puppet Shia militia organization in Lebanon, was
originally formed in 1985 to launch war with Israel, and still has no
other objective other than war with Israel. War with Israel is its
only reason for existing.

Israel and Hezbollah last had a war in 2006. That war was a disaster
for both sides, and also a disaster for Lebanon, much of whose
infrastructure was destroyed. Since then, Hezbollah has made it
known that it's preparing for a much more effective war with
Israel, although this plan has been delayed by the war in Syria.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah spoke on nationwide
television in Lebanon October 1, to mark Ashura, the holiest
day in the Shia Muslim calendar, and used the occasion to once
again threaten to destroy Israel, and to warn that Israel would
be devastated by war:

<QUOTE>"I call on anyone who came to occupied Palestine to
leave it and return to the lands you came from, so you will not be
the fuel for any war waged by your foolish government.

[Israel's prime minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and his government do
not know how the war will end if they start one, and they do not
have an accurate picture of what to expect should they embark on
the folly of war."<END QUOTE>


Israeli defense officials believe that Hezbollah has an of between
100,000 and 150,000 missiles and a fighting force of 50,000 soldiers,
10,000 of which are already positioned in southern Syria, ready for
war with Israel.

An extensive report released last month by the High Level Military
Group, a think tank made up of retired generals and defense officials
from the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy,
Spain, Colombia, India, and Australia, agrees with the Israeli
military assessment of Hezbollah, and also agrees with Nasrallah
of the effect of war on Israelis:

<QUOTE>"Policymakers expressed concerns about how prepared
the Israeli public is for the level of devastation that would be
wrought in a major military clash with Hezbollah.

Younger Israelis are less familiar with the threat of direct
attack than older generations, and Israel’s success in
neutralizing less sophisticated rockets fired from Gaza may have
led to inflated expectations of its capacity to intercept the
volume of rockets likely to be fired by Hezbollah."<END QUOTE>


In a war, Hezbollah would be launching about 1,000 missiles per
day at Israeli targets, although without guidance systems the
missiles could only be launched in the direction of the desired
target.

But in the last few months, reports have emerged that Iran is
constructing manufacturing facilities in Lebanon for volume
manufacturing of precision-guided missiles. These missiles could be
launched from anywhere in Lebanon, and could be programmed to strike
any target in Israel with accuracy. In the past, Iran tried to
transport convoys of these missiles overland from Iran to Lebanon, but
Israel has been very successful with airstrikes in Syria or Iraq to
destroy the convoys before they could reach Lebanon.

The manufacture of these precision-guided missiles within Lebanon is
thought be "crossing a red line" for Israel. Israel would probably
launch a preemptive strike on the production facilities in Lebanon,
which would be a significant escalation on the relation between
Lebanon and Israel since the end of the 2006 war. Hezbollah could
then launch a retaliatory strike on Israel, risking tit-for-tat
escalation that would lead to full-scale war.

Some analysts are advising Israel to strike right away, before
Hezbollah has a chance to fully arm. That option is certainly being
debated, but whether it will be adopted remains to be seen. Times of Israel (26-Oct) and National Interest and Times of Israel (1-Oct) and High Level Military Group (PDF) and Israel Hayom (1-Sep)

Related Articles

****
**** Saudi Arabian minister calls for 'toppling Hezbollah'
****


Saudi Arabia's Minister of Gulf Affairs, Thamer Al-Sabhan, said on
Monday that Hezbollah should be toppled:

<QUOTE>"[Saudi Arabia] is determined to stand resolute
against Hezbollah, the satanic militia working to recruit and
train outlaws in the party’s strongholds in Lebanon.

Hezbollah is declaring war on Saudi Arabia with the Iranian
weapons. ...

Those who believe that my tweets are a personal stance are
delusional and they will see what will happen in the coming days

I addressed my tweet to the government because the Party of Satan
[Hezbollah] is represented in it and it is a terrorist party. The
issue is not about toppling the government but rather that
Hezbollah should be toppled.

The coming developments will definitely be
astonishing."<END QUOTE>


Saudi Arabia has accused Hezbollah of supplying rockets and other
weapons to the Houthis, Saudi Arabia's enemy in the war in Yemen.

However, one pro-Hezbollah report mocked al-Sabhan by saying,
"Al-Sabhan obsessively tweets about Hezbollah and continues to make
promises about destroying the Lebanese group." Arab News and
Naharnet (Lebanon) and Al Masdar News (Damascus)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia,
Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
High Level Military Group, Thamer Al-Sabhan, Yemen

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2-Nov-17 World View -- Israel and Saudi Arabia prepare for war with Hezbollah, as Syr - by John J. Xenakis - 11-01-2017, 10:23 PM
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