11-04-2017, 10:06 PM
*** 5-Nov-17 World View -- Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia
****
![[Image: g171104b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171104b.jpg)
Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah (L) and former prime minister Saad Hariri ®
Saad Hariri, the prime minister of Lebanon, shocked the country and
the region on Saturday by announcing his resignation as prime minister
of Lebanon from a television studio in Riyadh, the capital city of
Saudi Arabia.
The main points of his announcement were:
Hariri's exact words are as follows:
<QUOTE>"You are the people of a great Lebanon, with its
traditions, values and bright history. You were the beacon of
science, knowledge and democracy until you became governed by
groups that did not care for your wellbeing. They were supported
by forces outside the borders, which implanted among the people
those who wished to cause strife, and formed a government inside a
government. This ended with these forces controlling branches of
government and obtaining the final say in the affairs of Lebanon
and the [lives of the] Lebanese.
I refer, frankly and unequivocally, to Iran, which plants
sedition, devastation and ruin, which is attested to by its
interference in the internal affairs of the Arab nation, in
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen – driven by a deep hatred
of the Arab nation and an overwhelming desire to destroy and
control it. Unfortunately, I found the sons who put their hand in
[Iran’s] hand, and openly declare their loyalty to them and seek
to kidnap Lebanon from its Arab and international environment,
with its values and ideals. I mean Hezbollah, which is the arm of
Iran not only in Lebanon but also in other Arab countries.
To the great Lebanese people: over the past decades, Hezbollah has
unfortunately managed to impose a fait accompli in Lebanon
using the force of its weapons, which are alleged to be solely for
the resistance [to Israel]. ...
We live in an atmosphere similar to the atmosphere that prevailed
before the assassination of martyr Rafiq Hariri, and I have sensed
that someone has been targeting me.
Based on the principles I inherited from the late martyr Rafiq
Hariri and the principles of the Great Cedar Revolution, and
because I do not want to let the Lebanese down or accept any
deviations from these principles, I declare my resignation as
Lebanese prime minister. I am convinced that the will of the
Lebanese is stronger and their resolve is stronger. They are able
to overcome these forces from inside or outside. I hope that
Lebanon will be the strongest free independent country, with no
authority over it except for its great people, governed by law and
protected by one army and one weapon."<END QUOTE>
Reuters and Daily Star (Lebanon) and Naharnet (Lebanon)
****
**** Lebanon enters the Sunni/Shia front line between Iran and Saudi Arabia
****
Rafiq Hariri was assassinated in 2005 because of his opposition to
control of Lebanon's government by Syria's leader Bashar al-Assad.
Public and international pressure forced Syria to withdraw completely
from Lebanon, but this only strengthened Hezbollah, which was and is
the puppet of Iran and Syria.
Saad Hariri clearly does not have the charisma and leadership
qualities of his father, and is still in the shadow of the explosive
death of his father 12 years ago. He shares his father's belief that
Lebanon should be run by Lebanon's people, not by Iran and Syria. So
with Hezbollah continually gaining strength in Lebanon's government,
Hariri became the most vocal opponent of Hezbollah. That could
explain why he felt that his life would be in danger if he made the
announcement in Beirut, and felt it was necessary to announce his
resignation in a foreign country - Saudi Arabia.
However, his political opponents are saying that the decision to
resign on television in Riyadh is inexplicable except as a plot by
Saudi Arabia. Iran's officials are saying that the resignation was
engineered by US president Donald Trump and Saudi king Mohammed bin
Salman. It seems unlikely that Trump was involved, but it's quite
possible that the Saudis strongly urged Hariri to step down.
Lebanon's constitution requires that the three main offices be
occupied by specific sectarian groups.
Hariri became prime minister in 2016, under a deal where Michel Aoun,
a Maronite Catholic and close ally of Hezbollah, because president.
When Hariri took office, he promised quite optimistically to end
sectarian divisions.
That was never possible anyway, but the war in Syria only made
things worse. As Iran's puppet militia, Hezbollah became
Iran's major fighting force in Syria, and also took control
Lebanon's national army.
After Hariri's resignation on Saturday, it falls to the Beirut
government to find a new Sunni Muslim prime minister. If, as many
believe, Hariri resigned because of pressure from Saudi Arabia, then
the Saudis won't stop there, and will pressure other prominent Sunnis
in Lebanon not to take the job. What many people fear is that
Lebanon's government faces years of chaos, just as it did following
the explosive death of Rafiq Hariri in 2005.
However, it's worth pointing out that after 2005, many people thought
that Lebanon was close to a new civil war. During the
Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, which took place on Lebanon's soil, I
quoted Lebanon's President Émile Geamil Lahoud as saying:
<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hezbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>
This was Lahoud expressing the fear shared by all survivors of the
last war that its horrors would be repeated. As I pointed out at the
time, Lebanon was in a generational Awakening era, with the survivors
of the last crisis civil war still alive, so there was no chance of a
new civil war.
Over ten years have passed since then, and most of those survivors are
still alive, and so there's still no chance of a new civil war (unless
the politicians force one to occur, as Bashar al-Assad has done in
Syria).
The larger picture is that Saturday's resignation puts Lebanon
squarely in between Saudi Arabia and Iran and their battles for
regional hegemony. Saudi Arabia is fighting Iran-backed Houthis in
Yemen, with no end in sight. Saudi Arabia has led this year's land,
sea and air blockade of Qatar, giving Qatar's relationship with Iran
as one of the reasons. And the Saudis are very anxious about Iran on
the cusp of a major victory in the war in Syria by establishing
control of a swath of land all along the "Shia Crescent," from Iran,
through Iraq, through Syria, and then on to Lebanon in one direction,
and the Mediterranean Sea in another direction.
In Syria, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
is losing territory rapidly, and it appears that its total defeat
is only weeks away. The defeat of ISIS will free up Lebanon
and Hezbollah to focus on its other enemies -- Saudi Arabia
and Israel.
Ever since the ironically named Arab Spring began in 2011, we've seen
chaos and war spring up in one Arab country after another -- Tunisia,
Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Now Lebanon may join
the list, as the end of ISIS and the resignation of Hariri completely
change the political landscape across the region.
We've pointed out in the past that all the various armies and militias
fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria now have nothing better to do than
start fighting each other. In defeating ISIS, the Turks, the
Iranians, the Kurds, the Shia militias, Hezbollah and the Syrian rebel
militias have all achieved a famous victory, and now they're going to
celebrate by killing each other.
As I'm writing this article on Saturday evening ET, there's late news
that the Houthis in Yemen have launched a ballistic missile that
reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800
km from the Yemen border. The fact that the Houthis now have these
medium-range ballistic missiles, probably supplied by Iran, that can
reach as far as Riyadh is a game-changed in the Yemen war, and could
lead to a further escalation in the region.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Daily Star (Lebanon) and CNN and Debka and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Saad Hariri, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Rafiq Hariri, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Israel,
Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, Michel Aoun, Nabhi Berri,
Émile Geamil Lahoud, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Turkey,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Khalid International Airport, Yemen, Houthis
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia
- Lebanon enters the Sunni/Shia front line between Iran and Saudi Arabia
****
**** Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia
****
Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah (L) and former prime minister Saad Hariri ®
Saad Hariri, the prime minister of Lebanon, shocked the country and
the region on Saturday by announcing his resignation as prime minister
of Lebanon from a television studio in Riyadh, the capital city of
Saudi Arabia.
The main points of his announcement were:
- Hariri believed that he's in danger of being assassinated.
The Saudis say they have evidence of an assassination attempt several
days ago.
- He compared himself to his father, Rafiq Hariri, a much beloved
former Lebanese prime minister and businessman, who was killed in 2005
by a massive explosion in Beirut
that was blamed on Syria and Hezbollah. He had been instrumental in
Lebanon's recovery following the civil wars and the Syrian invasion in
the 1990s.
- Saad Hariri on Saturday was vitriolicly critical of Iran, saying
that it caused "sedition, devastation and ruin" across the Mideast,
"driven by a deep hatred of the Arab nation and an overwhelming desire
to destroy and control it."
- He said that Iran's puppet Hezbollah has taken control of Lebanon
by "using the force of its weapons," even though those weapons are
only supposed to be used for resistance to Israel.
Hariri's exact words are as follows:
<QUOTE>"You are the people of a great Lebanon, with its
traditions, values and bright history. You were the beacon of
science, knowledge and democracy until you became governed by
groups that did not care for your wellbeing. They were supported
by forces outside the borders, which implanted among the people
those who wished to cause strife, and formed a government inside a
government. This ended with these forces controlling branches of
government and obtaining the final say in the affairs of Lebanon
and the [lives of the] Lebanese.
I refer, frankly and unequivocally, to Iran, which plants
sedition, devastation and ruin, which is attested to by its
interference in the internal affairs of the Arab nation, in
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen – driven by a deep hatred
of the Arab nation and an overwhelming desire to destroy and
control it. Unfortunately, I found the sons who put their hand in
[Iran’s] hand, and openly declare their loyalty to them and seek
to kidnap Lebanon from its Arab and international environment,
with its values and ideals. I mean Hezbollah, which is the arm of
Iran not only in Lebanon but also in other Arab countries.
To the great Lebanese people: over the past decades, Hezbollah has
unfortunately managed to impose a fait accompli in Lebanon
using the force of its weapons, which are alleged to be solely for
the resistance [to Israel]. ...
We live in an atmosphere similar to the atmosphere that prevailed
before the assassination of martyr Rafiq Hariri, and I have sensed
that someone has been targeting me.
Based on the principles I inherited from the late martyr Rafiq
Hariri and the principles of the Great Cedar Revolution, and
because I do not want to let the Lebanese down or accept any
deviations from these principles, I declare my resignation as
Lebanese prime minister. I am convinced that the will of the
Lebanese is stronger and their resolve is stronger. They are able
to overcome these forces from inside or outside. I hope that
Lebanon will be the strongest free independent country, with no
authority over it except for its great people, governed by law and
protected by one army and one weapon."<END QUOTE>
Reuters and Daily Star (Lebanon) and Naharnet (Lebanon)
****
**** Lebanon enters the Sunni/Shia front line between Iran and Saudi Arabia
****
Rafiq Hariri was assassinated in 2005 because of his opposition to
control of Lebanon's government by Syria's leader Bashar al-Assad.
Public and international pressure forced Syria to withdraw completely
from Lebanon, but this only strengthened Hezbollah, which was and is
the puppet of Iran and Syria.
Saad Hariri clearly does not have the charisma and leadership
qualities of his father, and is still in the shadow of the explosive
death of his father 12 years ago. He shares his father's belief that
Lebanon should be run by Lebanon's people, not by Iran and Syria. So
with Hezbollah continually gaining strength in Lebanon's government,
Hariri became the most vocal opponent of Hezbollah. That could
explain why he felt that his life would be in danger if he made the
announcement in Beirut, and felt it was necessary to announce his
resignation in a foreign country - Saudi Arabia.
However, his political opponents are saying that the decision to
resign on television in Riyadh is inexplicable except as a plot by
Saudi Arabia. Iran's officials are saying that the resignation was
engineered by US president Donald Trump and Saudi king Mohammed bin
Salman. It seems unlikely that Trump was involved, but it's quite
possible that the Saudis strongly urged Hariri to step down.
Lebanon's constitution requires that the three main offices be
occupied by specific sectarian groups.
- The prime minister, formerly Saad Hariri until Saturday, must
be a Sunni Muslim.
- The president, currently held by Michel Aoun, must be a Syriac
Maronite Catholic.
- And the speaker of parliament, currently held by Nabhi Berri, must
be a Shia Muslim.
Hariri became prime minister in 2016, under a deal where Michel Aoun,
a Maronite Catholic and close ally of Hezbollah, because president.
When Hariri took office, he promised quite optimistically to end
sectarian divisions.
That was never possible anyway, but the war in Syria only made
things worse. As Iran's puppet militia, Hezbollah became
Iran's major fighting force in Syria, and also took control
Lebanon's national army.
After Hariri's resignation on Saturday, it falls to the Beirut
government to find a new Sunni Muslim prime minister. If, as many
believe, Hariri resigned because of pressure from Saudi Arabia, then
the Saudis won't stop there, and will pressure other prominent Sunnis
in Lebanon not to take the job. What many people fear is that
Lebanon's government faces years of chaos, just as it did following
the explosive death of Rafiq Hariri in 2005.
However, it's worth pointing out that after 2005, many people thought
that Lebanon was close to a new civil war. During the
Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, which took place on Lebanon's soil, I
quoted Lebanon's President Émile Geamil Lahoud as saying:
<QUOTE>"Believe me, what we get from [Israeli bombers] is
nothing compared to [what would happen] if there is an internal
conflict [a new civil war] in Lebanon. So our thanks comes when we
are united, and we are really united, and the national army is
doing its work according to the government, and the resistance
[Hezbollah] is respected in the whole Arab world from the
population point of view. And very highly respected in Lebanon as
well."<END QUOTE>
This was Lahoud expressing the fear shared by all survivors of the
last war that its horrors would be repeated. As I pointed out at the
time, Lebanon was in a generational Awakening era, with the survivors
of the last crisis civil war still alive, so there was no chance of a
new civil war.
Over ten years have passed since then, and most of those survivors are
still alive, and so there's still no chance of a new civil war (unless
the politicians force one to occur, as Bashar al-Assad has done in
Syria).
The larger picture is that Saturday's resignation puts Lebanon
squarely in between Saudi Arabia and Iran and their battles for
regional hegemony. Saudi Arabia is fighting Iran-backed Houthis in
Yemen, with no end in sight. Saudi Arabia has led this year's land,
sea and air blockade of Qatar, giving Qatar's relationship with Iran
as one of the reasons. And the Saudis are very anxious about Iran on
the cusp of a major victory in the war in Syria by establishing
control of a swath of land all along the "Shia Crescent," from Iran,
through Iraq, through Syria, and then on to Lebanon in one direction,
and the Mediterranean Sea in another direction.
In Syria, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
is losing territory rapidly, and it appears that its total defeat
is only weeks away. The defeat of ISIS will free up Lebanon
and Hezbollah to focus on its other enemies -- Saudi Arabia
and Israel.
Ever since the ironically named Arab Spring began in 2011, we've seen
chaos and war spring up in one Arab country after another -- Tunisia,
Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Now Lebanon may join
the list, as the end of ISIS and the resignation of Hariri completely
change the political landscape across the region.
We've pointed out in the past that all the various armies and militias
fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria now have nothing better to do than
start fighting each other. In defeating ISIS, the Turks, the
Iranians, the Kurds, the Shia militias, Hezbollah and the Syrian rebel
militias have all achieved a famous victory, and now they're going to
celebrate by killing each other.
As I'm writing this article on Saturday evening ET, there's late news
that the Houthis in Yemen have launched a ballistic missile that
reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800
km from the Yemen border. The fact that the Houthis now have these
medium-range ballistic missiles, probably supplied by Iran, that can
reach as far as Riyadh is a game-changed in the Yemen war, and could
lead to a further escalation in the region.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Daily Star (Lebanon) and CNN and Debka and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
- Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasingly turn on each other (15-Oct-2017)
- Arab League brands Lebanon's Hezbollah a terrorist organization (12-Mar-2016)
- Paralyzed Lebanon decides to export its garbage to Europe (24-Dec-2015)
- Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock (16-Feb-2005)
- Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose (24-Jul-2006)
- Lebanon agrees on a unity government with Hizbollah (17-Nov-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Saad Hariri, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
Rafiq Hariri, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Israel,
Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, Michel Aoun, Nabhi Berri,
Émile Geamil Lahoud, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Turkey,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Khalid International Airport, Yemen, Houthis
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
