11-05-2017, 11:38 PM
*** 6-Nov-17 World View -- Saudi Arabia and Lebanon face increasing instability as crises multiply
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hezbollah's Nasrallah calls for calm in the streets of Lebanon
****
![[Image: g140923b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g140923b.jpg)
Iran now claims to control four Arab capitals: Beirut (Top L), Sanaa (Top R), Baghdad (Bottom L), Damascus (Bottom R) (AlWeeam)
Following the shocking resignation on Saturday of Lebanon's prime minister Saad Hariri,
fears are growing
of instability and street protests. Hariri played a crucial role in
the government as a Sunni Muslim, balancing a Syriac Maronite Catholic
president and a Shia Muslim speaker of parliament, both of whom were
closely allied with Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
The fears that that at best the government will simply be unable to
make any decisions at all, as had happened in recent years, and at
worst that street protesters will riot and blame Nasrallah for the
country's severe economic problems.
Some people fear that Nasrallah will deflect attention from himself by
starting a war with Israel.
Nasrallah is calling for calm, and for avoiding street protests:
<QUOTE>"This created a state of anxiety in Lebanon and
especially with the rumors that accompanied it. We call for
avoiding a return to the previous tensions or to any street
protests. ...
All of us must remain calm within legal frameworks ... and I
don't think that there is any party to clan in Lebanon whose
interests are in Lebanon returning to chaotic conditions of the
past."<END QUOTE>
However, the Foreign Ministry of Bahrain issued a statement calling on
its citizens to leave Lebanon:
<QUOTE>"Due to the current circumstances and developments in
the Republic of Lebanon, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requests
all citizens of the Kingdom of Bahrain, currently present in the
Republic of Lebanon, to leave immediately and with utmost care and
caution.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stresses that all citizens
should not travel to the Republic of Lebanon at all, for the sake
of their safety, in order to avoid encountering any risks as a
result of these developments."<END QUOTE>
Nasrallah said that the reasons for the resignation were not
understood in Lebanon, and that anyway they weren't Lebanese reasons.
He offered as proof the fact that Hariri traveled to Saudi Arabia to
resign. "The shape of the resignation proves that Hariri was forced
to do so and that the resignation was a Saudi decision." Arab News and
Al Manar (Lebanon, Hezbollah) and Bahrain Foreign Ministry
****
**** Yemen's Houthi missile attack on Riyadh called a 'dangerous escalation'
****
Saudi Arabia is calling a ballistic missile attack by Houthi militias
in Yemen a "dangerous escalation" of the war in Yemen, in which a
Saudi-led coalition is fighting against Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
Saudi Arabia blames Iran for the missile attack.
On Saturday, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile that reached the
King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the
Yemen border. the Houthis have been regularly launching missiles into
Saudi territory, but Saturday's missile attack is considered a
game-changer because of the distance it traveled and its accuracy.
The Saudis intercepted the ballistic missile with a surface-to-air
Patriot missile, which caused it to shatter into fragments near the
airport, before it could reach its target. There were no casualties.
The Saudi-led coalition responded to the "dangerous escalation" with a
major escalation of its own. The Saudis have shut down all of Yemen's
land, sea and air ports, and have launched airstrikes, supposedly the
largest barrage since the beginning of the war, on Houthi targets in
Yemen's capital city Sanaa.
Yemen has been engulfed in war since September 2014, when Houthi
fighters attacked the government in Sanaa and overthrew the
internationally recognized government. The war has already killed
more than 10,000 and displaced millions, with around 500,000 cholera
cases reported in the country since the worst outbreak in decades
started in April. Saudi Arabia has been accused of creating a
humanitarian disaster. Reuters and Al Jazeera
****
**** Saudi's young Crown Prince Salman forces rapid change among multiple crises
****
The 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by far the youngest
ruler that Saudi Arabia has had in decades. He is bringing about vast
changes, very quickly, but opening up the country to instability.
This weekend, there have been a series of crises in rapid succession.
First, Saad Hariri resigned as Lebanon's prime minister while
in Riyadh. Hours later, the Houthi missile attack on Riyadh occurred,
called a "dangerous escalation" by the Saudis, who responded with
their own escalation in the form of port closings and a barrage
of airstrikes.
Next, Saudi Arabia announced a major purge of political and business
élites, involving the arrest of 11 princes, four ministers, and dozens
of former ministers accused of corruption. Just as the resignation of
Hariri has raised questions about the stability of Lebanon's
government, the size of the purge has raised questions about the
stability and predictability of the Saudi government.
Saudi officials were still reeling from those three events, when there
was news that Saudi Prince Mansour bin Muqrin was killed in a
helicopter crash, when traveling near the Yemen border. There were
immediate concerns that the helicopter was shot down by a Houthi
missile, but no explanation has been given, and the Houthis themselves
haven't claimed credit, suggesting that the crash was not related to
the Yemen war. Several other Saudi officials were killed in the same
crash.
If this were the 1990s, or even the early 2000s, when the Mideast
was relatively stable, even these four events could be handled
as a matter of course. But ever since the "Arab Spring" of 2011,
the Mideast has become increasingly unstable almost continuously.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Jordan Times and CNN and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Saudi Arabia,
Saad Hariri, Israel, Bahrain,
Khalid International Airport, Yemen, Houthis, Mohammed bin Salman,
Mansour bin Muqrin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hezbollah's Nasrallah calls for calm in the streets of Lebanon
- Yemen's Houthi missile attack on Riyadh called a 'dangerous escalation'
- Saudi's young Crown Prince Salman forces rapid change among multiple crises
****
**** Hezbollah's Nasrallah calls for calm in the streets of Lebanon
****
Iran now claims to control four Arab capitals: Beirut (Top L), Sanaa (Top R), Baghdad (Bottom L), Damascus (Bottom R) (AlWeeam)
Following the shocking resignation on Saturday of Lebanon's prime minister Saad Hariri,
fears are growing
of instability and street protests. Hariri played a crucial role in
the government as a Sunni Muslim, balancing a Syriac Maronite Catholic
president and a Shia Muslim speaker of parliament, both of whom were
closely allied with Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
The fears that that at best the government will simply be unable to
make any decisions at all, as had happened in recent years, and at
worst that street protesters will riot and blame Nasrallah for the
country's severe economic problems.
Some people fear that Nasrallah will deflect attention from himself by
starting a war with Israel.
Nasrallah is calling for calm, and for avoiding street protests:
<QUOTE>"This created a state of anxiety in Lebanon and
especially with the rumors that accompanied it. We call for
avoiding a return to the previous tensions or to any street
protests. ...
All of us must remain calm within legal frameworks ... and I
don't think that there is any party to clan in Lebanon whose
interests are in Lebanon returning to chaotic conditions of the
past."<END QUOTE>
However, the Foreign Ministry of Bahrain issued a statement calling on
its citizens to leave Lebanon:
<QUOTE>"Due to the current circumstances and developments in
the Republic of Lebanon, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requests
all citizens of the Kingdom of Bahrain, currently present in the
Republic of Lebanon, to leave immediately and with utmost care and
caution.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stresses that all citizens
should not travel to the Republic of Lebanon at all, for the sake
of their safety, in order to avoid encountering any risks as a
result of these developments."<END QUOTE>
Nasrallah said that the reasons for the resignation were not
understood in Lebanon, and that anyway they weren't Lebanese reasons.
He offered as proof the fact that Hariri traveled to Saudi Arabia to
resign. "The shape of the resignation proves that Hariri was forced
to do so and that the resignation was a Saudi decision." Arab News and
Al Manar (Lebanon, Hezbollah) and Bahrain Foreign Ministry
****
**** Yemen's Houthi missile attack on Riyadh called a 'dangerous escalation'
****
Saudi Arabia is calling a ballistic missile attack by Houthi militias
in Yemen a "dangerous escalation" of the war in Yemen, in which a
Saudi-led coalition is fighting against Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
Saudi Arabia blames Iran for the missile attack.
On Saturday, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile that reached the
King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the
Yemen border. the Houthis have been regularly launching missiles into
Saudi territory, but Saturday's missile attack is considered a
game-changer because of the distance it traveled and its accuracy.
The Saudis intercepted the ballistic missile with a surface-to-air
Patriot missile, which caused it to shatter into fragments near the
airport, before it could reach its target. There were no casualties.
The Saudi-led coalition responded to the "dangerous escalation" with a
major escalation of its own. The Saudis have shut down all of Yemen's
land, sea and air ports, and have launched airstrikes, supposedly the
largest barrage since the beginning of the war, on Houthi targets in
Yemen's capital city Sanaa.
Yemen has been engulfed in war since September 2014, when Houthi
fighters attacked the government in Sanaa and overthrew the
internationally recognized government. The war has already killed
more than 10,000 and displaced millions, with around 500,000 cholera
cases reported in the country since the worst outbreak in decades
started in April. Saudi Arabia has been accused of creating a
humanitarian disaster. Reuters and Al Jazeera
****
**** Saudi's young Crown Prince Salman forces rapid change among multiple crises
****
The 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by far the youngest
ruler that Saudi Arabia has had in decades. He is bringing about vast
changes, very quickly, but opening up the country to instability.
This weekend, there have been a series of crises in rapid succession.
First, Saad Hariri resigned as Lebanon's prime minister while
in Riyadh. Hours later, the Houthi missile attack on Riyadh occurred,
called a "dangerous escalation" by the Saudis, who responded with
their own escalation in the form of port closings and a barrage
of airstrikes.
Next, Saudi Arabia announced a major purge of political and business
élites, involving the arrest of 11 princes, four ministers, and dozens
of former ministers accused of corruption. Just as the resignation of
Hariri has raised questions about the stability of Lebanon's
government, the size of the purge has raised questions about the
stability and predictability of the Saudi government.
Saudi officials were still reeling from those three events, when there
was news that Saudi Prince Mansour bin Muqrin was killed in a
helicopter crash, when traveling near the Yemen border. There were
immediate concerns that the helicopter was shot down by a Houthi
missile, but no explanation has been given, and the Houthis themselves
haven't claimed credit, suggesting that the crash was not related to
the Yemen war. Several other Saudi officials were killed in the same
crash.
If this were the 1990s, or even the early 2000s, when the Mideast
was relatively stable, even these four events could be handled
as a matter of course. But ever since the "Arab Spring" of 2011,
the Mideast has become increasingly unstable almost continuously.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Jordan Times and CNN and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
- Saad Hariri shocks Lebanon by resigning as PM while in Saudi Arabia (05-Nov-2017)
- Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
- UAE backs out of Saudi coalition in Yemen, saying 'War is over' (17-Jun-2016)
- Iran brags that Sanaa Yemen is the fourth Arab capital they control (24-Sep-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Saudi Arabia,
Saad Hariri, Israel, Bahrain,
Khalid International Airport, Yemen, Houthis, Mohammed bin Salman,
Mansour bin Muqrin
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
