11-19-2017, 11:03 AM
It is my observation that many political events that seem impossible before they happen that are surprises when they happen seem inevitable once they happen. Think of the revolutions of central and Balkan Europe in 1989 and 1990. As late as 1770, it might have seemed to any objective person that the British colonies from Massachusetts (Maine was a part of Massachusetts until 1820) to Georgia had a happier relationship with the British Crown than the Spanish colonies had with the Spanish Crown. Yet it was the 13 colonies, different as they were in economics and culture, that turned against the British King in 1776, seemingly at once. It would take nearly 35 years for any successful revolt against Spanish rule in the Americas (the rebellion of Tupac Amaru III in Peru, uniting First Peoples and Afro-Peruvians against Spanish oppressors in 1783 is very different from the American Revolution in more than the result). The Bolshevik Revolution might have seemed an absurdity in semi-feudal, intensely-religious Russia, but it happened there. About everyone now considers Lenin an inevitability in Russia in 1917. Iran in 1979? Likewise.
It is easy to believe that any social order will last forever. The political and economic leaders don't want change, and the People are scared to express any desire for change. A leader like Mugabe can seem charmed. After all, he is the founder of the system, and many people got what they have under him. But fear can dissipate fast, and old resentments can appear quickly on placards. Most people figure out quickly which way the wind is blowing. The most corrupt and brutal are the last to get the message, and they are the ones who find themselves in prison or before a firing squad.
It is easy to believe that any social order will last forever. The political and economic leaders don't want change, and the People are scared to express any desire for change. A leader like Mugabe can seem charmed. After all, he is the founder of the system, and many people got what they have under him. But fear can dissipate fast, and old resentments can appear quickly on placards. Most people figure out quickly which way the wind is blowing. The most corrupt and brutal are the last to get the message, and they are the ones who find themselves in prison or before a firing squad.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
