11-23-2017, 07:50 AM
Here's an additional observation.
Over the years I've written about many examples of how crisis civil
wars begin. Usually the ethnic clashes begin in the previous
Awakening era, and they're resolved by some sort of peace agreement.
The peace agreement falls apart after a few months or a couple of
years, and there are new clashes, so the cycle repeats. Throughout
the Unraveling and the post-Unraveling portion of the next Crisis era,
there are alternating periods of clashes and peace agreements, with
each period of clashes worse than the previous one. Finally, there's
a new regeneracy, and there's a full-scale civil war.
That describes what happens BEFORE a crisis civil war involving tribal
or ethnic groups, and in recent years we've developed new observations
about what happens AFTER a crisis civil war involving tribal or ethnic
groups. These new observations show that violent government
crackdowns begin in the next Awakening era after the civil war, just
as the new Prophet generation begins making anti-government protests.
So now further research could be possible to paste these two sets of
observations together, and get a complete picture of how one
generational crisis civil war leads to the next one, from the point of
view of generational theory. Using this technique, it might also be
possible to identify factors that determine how likely it is that
there will be the next crisis civil war.
I would like to be able to say that if we figure this out, then we
might come up some policy recommendations that any country could use
after an ethnic or tribal crisis civil war to prevent the next one,
but after 15 years of doing this, and almost 6,000 articles and
Generational Dynamics analyses, I've become so thoroughly fatalistic
that I don't think I believe that any political policies have any
effect on anything, and that political objectives are never more than
pure wishful thinking, and that what's going to happen is going to
happen, irrespective of what the politicians do.
Over the years I've written about many examples of how crisis civil
wars begin. Usually the ethnic clashes begin in the previous
Awakening era, and they're resolved by some sort of peace agreement.
The peace agreement falls apart after a few months or a couple of
years, and there are new clashes, so the cycle repeats. Throughout
the Unraveling and the post-Unraveling portion of the next Crisis era,
there are alternating periods of clashes and peace agreements, with
each period of clashes worse than the previous one. Finally, there's
a new regeneracy, and there's a full-scale civil war.
That describes what happens BEFORE a crisis civil war involving tribal
or ethnic groups, and in recent years we've developed new observations
about what happens AFTER a crisis civil war involving tribal or ethnic
groups. These new observations show that violent government
crackdowns begin in the next Awakening era after the civil war, just
as the new Prophet generation begins making anti-government protests.
So now further research could be possible to paste these two sets of
observations together, and get a complete picture of how one
generational crisis civil war leads to the next one, from the point of
view of generational theory. Using this technique, it might also be
possible to identify factors that determine how likely it is that
there will be the next crisis civil war.
I would like to be able to say that if we figure this out, then we
might come up some policy recommendations that any country could use
after an ethnic or tribal crisis civil war to prevent the next one,
but after 15 years of doing this, and almost 6,000 articles and
Generational Dynamics analyses, I've become so thoroughly fatalistic
that I don't think I believe that any political policies have any
effect on anything, and that political objectives are never more than
pure wishful thinking, and that what's going to happen is going to
happen, irrespective of what the politicians do.