12-02-2017, 11:06 PM
*** 3-Dec-17 World View -- Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition
****
![[Image: g171202b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171202b.jpg)
Tens of thousands gather in Sanaa to demand an end to the clashes between the Houthis and their former ally, Ali Abdullah Saleh (AFP)
Last month, Saudi Arabia imposed a sea, land and air blockade on
Yemen, taking a country which was already in a major humanitarian
crisis into an enormous humanitarian disaster. The major effect of
the blockade has been to prevent humanitarian aid, including food,
medicines and fuel into the country. Of the 25 million population, 20
million rely on humanitarian assistance, and 7-8 million are now
facing full-scale famine and starvation as a result of the blockade on
humanitarian aid. Furthermore, without fuel, the water pumps in many
cities can no longer operate, forcing people to drink filthy water,
adding to Yemen's huge cholera epidemic, hitting close to one million
people.
Since 2015, the tribal civil war in Yemen has been largely a proxy war
between Saudi Arabia and Iran, especially the Iran-backed Houthi
rebels. The war dangerously escalated a month ago when the Houthis
launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran, that
reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800
km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with the blockade,
giving as a reason the need to prevent the Houthis from importing more
Iranian weapons systems.
Beyond blocking Iranian weapons imports, it wasn't clear whether the
Saudis had any further objectives, and indeed some NGO leaders were
accusing the Saudis of using "denial of aid" as a "weapon of war."
If being a weapon of war was part of the Saudi plan, then it appears
to have been successful. There's been a major split among the
militias in the Houthi coalition.
There have been four days of increasingly violent clashes between the
the two major militias, one led by Houthi leader Abdel-Malek
al-Houthi, and the other led by former Yemen president Ali Abdullah
Saleh, who is leading some local militias who had previously been
allied with al-Houthi.
After the clashes began, tens of thousands of people filled the
streets in Yemen demanding an end to the fighting. After four days of
clashes, it was apparently too much for Saleh, who practically begged
the Saudis for a ceasefire:
<QUOTE>"I call on our brothers in neighboring countries
... to stop their aggression and lift the blockade. They need to
lift the blockade and open the airports, and allow food and
medicine to enter the country. We will open a new page with them
for dialog. What is happening in Yemen is enough."<END QUOTE>
A spokesman for the Houthis said that "Saleh's speech is a coup
against our alliance and partnership... and exposed the deception of
those who claim to stand against aggression." In addition, al-Houthi
responded on television, calling Saleh a traitor and describing his
appeal to Saudi Arabia as "treason to the country and a stab in the
back." BBC and Washington Post and Reuters and Bloomberg and AP
****
**** The Houthi-Saleh 'alliance of convenience' crumbles into violence
****
South Yemen and North Yemen were two separate countries until they
unified in 1990 under the leadership of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh
ruled until 2011, when he was ousted as an outcome of the "Arab
Spring" that affected countries throughout the region. Saleh was
forced to turn the office of president over to his vice president,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi.
In effect, Saleh refused to give up power, and he formed an "alliance
of convenience" with the Houthis. Saleh and the Houthis have never
really gotten along. During the two decades that Saleh was president,
he fought six different wars against the Houthis. on September 21,
2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa from Hadi's forces. Hadi
was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia
for two years. From the point of view of the international community,
Hadi is still president of Yemen.
On Saturday, Saleh's foreign minister was interviewed on the BBC, and
he said that the alliance with the Houthis had to end because Houthis
were forming a "state within a state," similar to the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a military state within a state
within Iran.
In 2005, Saleh and the Houthis had created an alliance with the
nominal objective of forming a unity government that both groups could
lead equally. But in the last year, the Houthis have been gaining
power in Sanaa, and Saleh has been losing power. Furthermore, there
has been rising popular discontent with the Houthis, and that
discontent has increased in the last month with the Saudi blockade.
Some reports indicate that Saleh has been talking to the Saudis
through back channels for a while, so it's even possible that this
whole scenario, starting with the blockade, was planned in advance,
and triggered by the Houthis' launch of the ballistic missile at
Riyadh.
Since Saleh's call for a ceasefire, the Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa have
almost stopped. According to reports, Saleh has promised the Saudis
that if they agree to the ceasefire and to lift the blockade, then he
will undertake to defeat the Houthis in Sanaa, and drive them back
into their northeast stronghold, as he had to do several times when he
was president. After that, Saleh says that he and the Saudis can
talk, and bring Yemen back to be "normal" again, with him in some sort
of leadership position.
That's actually the optimistic scenario. A more likely scenario is
there's another front in the war, and that the clashes between Saleh
and the Houthis will become just another war within the Yemen war, the
war will continue in a different form. AFP and Gulf News (Dubai) and CNN and Stratfor
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran,
Houthis, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, Ali Abdullah Saleh,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, King Khalid International Airport,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition
- The Houthi-Saleh 'alliance of convenience' crumbles into violence
****
**** Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition
****
Tens of thousands gather in Sanaa to demand an end to the clashes between the Houthis and their former ally, Ali Abdullah Saleh (AFP)
Last month, Saudi Arabia imposed a sea, land and air blockade on
Yemen, taking a country which was already in a major humanitarian
crisis into an enormous humanitarian disaster. The major effect of
the blockade has been to prevent humanitarian aid, including food,
medicines and fuel into the country. Of the 25 million population, 20
million rely on humanitarian assistance, and 7-8 million are now
facing full-scale famine and starvation as a result of the blockade on
humanitarian aid. Furthermore, without fuel, the water pumps in many
cities can no longer operate, forcing people to drink filthy water,
adding to Yemen's huge cholera epidemic, hitting close to one million
people.
Since 2015, the tribal civil war in Yemen has been largely a proxy war
between Saudi Arabia and Iran, especially the Iran-backed Houthi
rebels. The war dangerously escalated a month ago when the Houthis
launched a ballistic missile, undoubtedly supplied by Iran, that
reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800
km from the Yemen border. The Saudis reacted with the blockade,
giving as a reason the need to prevent the Houthis from importing more
Iranian weapons systems.
Beyond blocking Iranian weapons imports, it wasn't clear whether the
Saudis had any further objectives, and indeed some NGO leaders were
accusing the Saudis of using "denial of aid" as a "weapon of war."
If being a weapon of war was part of the Saudi plan, then it appears
to have been successful. There's been a major split among the
militias in the Houthi coalition.
There have been four days of increasingly violent clashes between the
the two major militias, one led by Houthi leader Abdel-Malek
al-Houthi, and the other led by former Yemen president Ali Abdullah
Saleh, who is leading some local militias who had previously been
allied with al-Houthi.
After the clashes began, tens of thousands of people filled the
streets in Yemen demanding an end to the fighting. After four days of
clashes, it was apparently too much for Saleh, who practically begged
the Saudis for a ceasefire:
<QUOTE>"I call on our brothers in neighboring countries
... to stop their aggression and lift the blockade. They need to
lift the blockade and open the airports, and allow food and
medicine to enter the country. We will open a new page with them
for dialog. What is happening in Yemen is enough."<END QUOTE>
A spokesman for the Houthis said that "Saleh's speech is a coup
against our alliance and partnership... and exposed the deception of
those who claim to stand against aggression." In addition, al-Houthi
responded on television, calling Saleh a traitor and describing his
appeal to Saudi Arabia as "treason to the country and a stab in the
back." BBC and Washington Post and Reuters and Bloomberg and AP
****
**** The Houthi-Saleh 'alliance of convenience' crumbles into violence
****
South Yemen and North Yemen were two separate countries until they
unified in 1990 under the leadership of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh
ruled until 2011, when he was ousted as an outcome of the "Arab
Spring" that affected countries throughout the region. Saleh was
forced to turn the office of president over to his vice president,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi.
In effect, Saleh refused to give up power, and he formed an "alliance
of convenience" with the Houthis. Saleh and the Houthis have never
really gotten along. During the two decades that Saleh was president,
he fought six different wars against the Houthis. on September 21,
2014, Saleh and the Houthis captured Sanaa from Hadi's forces. Hadi
was forced to flee Sanaa, and has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia
for two years. From the point of view of the international community,
Hadi is still president of Yemen.
On Saturday, Saleh's foreign minister was interviewed on the BBC, and
he said that the alliance with the Houthis had to end because Houthis
were forming a "state within a state," similar to the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a military state within a state
within Iran.
In 2005, Saleh and the Houthis had created an alliance with the
nominal objective of forming a unity government that both groups could
lead equally. But in the last year, the Houthis have been gaining
power in Sanaa, and Saleh has been losing power. Furthermore, there
has been rising popular discontent with the Houthis, and that
discontent has increased in the last month with the Saudi blockade.
Some reports indicate that Saleh has been talking to the Saudis
through back channels for a while, so it's even possible that this
whole scenario, starting with the blockade, was planned in advance,
and triggered by the Houthis' launch of the ballistic missile at
Riyadh.
Since Saleh's call for a ceasefire, the Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa have
almost stopped. According to reports, Saleh has promised the Saudis
that if they agree to the ceasefire and to lift the blockade, then he
will undertake to defeat the Houthis in Sanaa, and drive them back
into their northeast stronghold, as he had to do several times when he
was president. After that, Saleh says that he and the Saudis can
talk, and bring Yemen back to be "normal" again, with him in some sort
of leadership position.
That's actually the optimistic scenario. A more likely scenario is
there's another front in the war, and that the clashes between Saleh
and the Houthis will become just another war within the Yemen war, the
war will continue in a different form. AFP and Gulf News (Dubai) and CNN and Stratfor
Related Articles:
- Yemen's Houthi missile attack on Riyadh called a 'dangerous escalation' (06-Nov-2017)
- War in Yemen expands as Shia al-Houthis threaten new Sunni provinces (05-Jan-2015)
- Saudi Arabia says it will 'end major combat operations' in Yemen (18-Mar-2016)
- Yemen's president Saleh hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns (31-May-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran,
Houthis, Abdel-Malek al-Houthi, Ali Abdullah Saleh,
Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, King Khalid International Airport,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
