12-04-2017, 11:10 PM
*** 5-Dec-17 World View -- Three crises accelerate: Yemen's Saleh killed, Brexit collapses and North Korea war looms
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush
****
![[Image: g171204b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171204b.jpg)
Ali Abdullah Saleh
A web site reader posted this message on Sunday:
<QUOTE>"Every day astounds me more than the last. I suppose
that's one of the distinguishing features of "times like these."
In Generational Crisis times, time seems to be compressed. One
'panic' or another is just hours away, it seems, and great swathes
of 'public opinion' change course mid-air like a disturbed
mega-flock of starlings."<END QUOTE>
On Monday, the time compression seemed to increase, with three crises
all seeming to accelerate at the same time on the same day: Yemen,
North Korea, and Brexit.
It was just two days ago that I wrote a lengthy article about a big
change in the Yemen war, which has become a proxy war between Iran and
Saudi Arabia. Previously, the Iran-backed Houthis were allied with
Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, fighting against the
militias supporting Saudi Arabia.
Saleh has always been a master politician at deftly switching sides,
forming alliances of convenience, and then betraying his former
allies. Last week, he performed this act again, breaking his alliance
with the Houthis, and forming an alliance with the Saudis. But this
turned out to be his last act.
The Houthis were furious at Saleh's betrayal and "treason," and
apparently took revenge on him on Monday, when he was ambushed and
killed in his convoy at a checkpoint in Yemen's capital city Sanaa.
Analysts are saying that this is a victory for the Houthis and Iran,
but it also weakens the Houthis in the sense that it will further
split the tribes previously allied with the Houthis. In particular,
in some scenarios, many of Saleh's militias that were fighting
alongside the Houthis in the past may attack the Houthis for revenge,
and firmly side with the Saudis. Another scenario is that the
pro-Saleh tribes will splinter and become ineffective.
The effects of Saleh's death will depend on what the Saudis and
Iranians do next. Saleh's son in Saudi Arabia is being proposed as
his replacement. The only thing that's certain is that Saleh's death
guarantees more chaos.
The death of Saleh is expected to complicate Tuesday's meeting of the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The GCC is an alliance of six Arab
countries -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) -- on the Arabian Gulf. The GCC is already
splintered because of Saudi Arabia's air, land and sea blockade on
another GCC member, Qatar. Kuwait has been acting as a mediator, and
some analysts hoped that Tuesday's meeting would be used to negotiate
an end to the blockade of Qatar. However, Tuesday's agenda is likely
to be hijacked by the Yemen issue after the death of Saleh. Some
analysts are saying that the GCC is near complete collapse.
National Yemen and BBC and Al Jazeera
Related Articles:
****
**** US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war
****
Over the weekend, the full realization of what the U.S. is facing from
North Korea became more clear and more stark. It's clear that for
three decades, US administrations have simply appeased the North
Koreans, falling time after time for North Korean promises that they
had no intention of keeping, just as Hitler was planning for
full-scale war as he promised "peace in our time."
If we continue on the same path as the last three decades, then:
Many people believe that China and Russia would welcome these
developments by the North Koreans, since the missiles would be pointed
at America, not at China or Russia.
The administration seems to be signaling every day that we're one day
closer to war because of the North Korean threat.
Over the weekend, H.R. McMaster, President Trump’s national security
adviser, said:
<QUOTE>"The greatest immediate threat to the United States
and to the world is the threat posed by the rogue regime in North
Korea and his continued efforts to develop a long range nuclear
capability. ...
I think [the threat] is increasing every day. It means we’re in a
race. We’re in a race to be able to solve this problem.
There are ways to address this problem short of armed conflict,
but it is a race because he’s getting closer and closer and
there’s not much time left."<END QUOTE>
Sen. Lindsey Graham on CBS News said that the American military should
start preparing for war:
<QUOTE>"We're getting close to a military conflict because
North Korea's marching toward marrying up the technology of an
I.C.B.M. with a nuclear weapon on top that cannot only get to
America but deliver the weapon. We're running out of
time. McMaster said that yesterday. I'm going to urge the Pentagon
not to send any more dependents to South Korea.
South Korea should be an unaccompanied tour. It's crazy to send
spouses and children to South Korea, given the provocation of
North Korea. So I want them to stop sending dependents. And I
think it's now time to start moving American dependents out of
South Korea. ...
[Trump has] got the best national security team of anybody I've
seen since I've been in Washington. The president, himself, early
on, made the right decision: 'I'm not going to allow North Korea
to hit America with a nuclear weapon. We're not going to live
under that threat. If I have to go to war, and I don't want to, to
stop it, I will.'
Everybody before President Trump screwed it up, including
Republicans. Now we need to get it right. And I think he's got the
right approach. He's got the right team. I hope China will help
us. We're running out of time."<END QUOTE>
What would a military strike on North Korea look like? On Fox
Business Network on Monday, retired army lieutenant colonel Ralph
Peters described it as follow (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"This is not a question of a few surgical strikes. If
we wanted to destroy, DESTROY their capability to build a fleet of
ICBMs, with mated nuclear warheads, it would require an intensive
campaign, primarily, not exclusively from the air. It would run a
minimum of several weeks, possibly months - you can't predict
these things once you start pulling triggers.
And ultimately the question is the regime in North Korea: can,
should it survive?
So it's not just shooting a couple of launchers, knocking out some
missiles. You have to go after deep underground bunkers, research
facilities. You have to go after command and control, air
defense, intelligence, early warning. And so this is real war. If
we had to address the North Korea problem militarily, it's a
war. ...
Is it better to put American cities at risk of nuclear catastrophe
or at least nuclear blackmail, or to act while we
can?"<END QUOTE>
The logic of the imminent North Korean threat and these statements
from American officials is that a war is likely within 6-18 months.
South Korea and the US are holding joint military drills, the largest
ever, involving 12,000 US troops. There are also 230 US fighter jets,
including the brand new F-35 Lightning, two dozen stealth jets, and
over 200 fighters and bombers. North Korea has called it a
"preparation for war," and threatened unspecified action. Fox News and CBS News
Related Articles
****
**** Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue
****
![[Image: g171204c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171204c.jpg)
Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, Carwyn Jones, First Minister of Wales, and Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London all tweet that if Northern Ireland is going to be favorably treated, then they must be favorably treated. (BBC)
Until midday Monday, the European media were reporting that a
breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU was
imminent. The reason that a breakthrough was predicted was because UK
prime minister Theresa May had repeatedly capitulated to the demands
of the EU on the three major "Phase I" issues.
The first Phase I issue was the "divorce bill," the amount that the UK
will have to pay the EU to leave, an amount as high as €60
billion. UK politician Nigel Farage, who spearheaded the Brexit
movement, famously once said that "the EU can whistle for that money."
Over a period of months, May had to agree to pay something, then had
to agree to pay €20 billion, and finally last week agreed to pay
about €50 billion. The EU considered this to be enough of a
commitment for the time being.
The second issue was the treatment of EU citizens working in the UK.
EU officials said that May had made significant concessions,
and that would be enough for the time being. However, the
role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in rejecting UK laws
is still an open question, as it has been all along.
The third issue is the problem of the border between Northern Ireland,
which is part of the UK, separating it from the Republic of Ireland,
which is part of the EU. When the UK leaves the EU, there would have
be border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland, a concept
that almost everyone rejects, because any border controls are thought
likely to result in a renewal of "The Troubles," the decades of
violence between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (Catholic,
Republican) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders
(Protestant, Unionist).
Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland has stated
unequivocally that he would not approve any Brexit agreement that
reinstated border controls. The EU has stated unequivocally that the
EU would not agree to any proposal that Varadkar rejected, since
Ireland would be part of the EU after Brexit, and Northern Ireland and
the UK would not.
So apparently Theresa May's staff came up with some language late last
week that seemed to satisfy everyone. The details are unknown, but it
would provide some kind of special regulatory status to Northern
Ireland that would allow the borders to remain open. It was that
level of agreement that led the media to expect a breakthrough on
Monday, and Theresa May went off the Brussels to sign the deal.
While in Brussels, Theresa May placed a phone call to the Arlene
Foster, the leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party
(DUP), and Foster vetoed the plan. She said:
<QUOTE>"Northern Ireland must leave the EU on the same terms
as the rest of the UK. We will not accept any form of regulatory
divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or
politically from the rest of the United Kingdom."<END QUOTE>
The DUP is a very small but critical part of Theresa May's governing
coalition, but if they turn against her, then there will be new
elections in Britain. This is somewhat comical, since it's an outcome
nobody wants. May and her Tory party would probably lose the election
to the Labor Party, and the ultra-leftist Jeremy Corbyn would become
prime minister. Corbyn supports the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in
Ireland, which is the DUP's traditional enemy. Would Corbyn like to
be prime minister and take over Brexit negotiations with the EU? My
guess is that he enjoys seeing May take all the flak in trying
to solve the intractable Ireland problem.
On top of the veto by the DUP, the leaders of Scotland and Wales, and
the mayor of London all tweeted that if Northern Ireland gets special
treatment, then they should get special treatment too. Their tweets
are shown in the above graphic.
EU and UK leaders hope that these problems can all be resolved by the
December 14 summit meeting in Brussels. If so, then negotiations will
move onto trade issues, and those issues will be far more difficult to
resolve than the three Phase I issues. It's very hard to get past the
feeling that Brexit is a complete disaster for the UK, and probably
for the EU as well. Irish Times and BBC
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Houthis, Iran,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
North Korea, China, Russia, H.R. McMaster, Lindsey Graham,
Ralph Peters, Theresa May, Ireland, Leo Varadkar,
Arlene Foster, Democratic Unionist Party, DUP,
Jeremy Corbyn, Irish Republican Army, IRA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush
- US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war
- Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue
****
**** Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh killed in Houthi ambush
****
Ali Abdullah Saleh
A web site reader posted this message on Sunday:
<QUOTE>"Every day astounds me more than the last. I suppose
that's one of the distinguishing features of "times like these."
In Generational Crisis times, time seems to be compressed. One
'panic' or another is just hours away, it seems, and great swathes
of 'public opinion' change course mid-air like a disturbed
mega-flock of starlings."<END QUOTE>
On Monday, the time compression seemed to increase, with three crises
all seeming to accelerate at the same time on the same day: Yemen,
North Korea, and Brexit.
It was just two days ago that I wrote a lengthy article about a big
change in the Yemen war, which has become a proxy war between Iran and
Saudi Arabia. Previously, the Iran-backed Houthis were allied with
Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, fighting against the
militias supporting Saudi Arabia.
Saleh has always been a master politician at deftly switching sides,
forming alliances of convenience, and then betraying his former
allies. Last week, he performed this act again, breaking his alliance
with the Houthis, and forming an alliance with the Saudis. But this
turned out to be his last act.
The Houthis were furious at Saleh's betrayal and "treason," and
apparently took revenge on him on Monday, when he was ambushed and
killed in his convoy at a checkpoint in Yemen's capital city Sanaa.
Analysts are saying that this is a victory for the Houthis and Iran,
but it also weakens the Houthis in the sense that it will further
split the tribes previously allied with the Houthis. In particular,
in some scenarios, many of Saleh's militias that were fighting
alongside the Houthis in the past may attack the Houthis for revenge,
and firmly side with the Saudis. Another scenario is that the
pro-Saleh tribes will splinter and become ineffective.
The effects of Saleh's death will depend on what the Saudis and
Iranians do next. Saleh's son in Saudi Arabia is being proposed as
his replacement. The only thing that's certain is that Saleh's death
guarantees more chaos.
The death of Saleh is expected to complicate Tuesday's meeting of the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The GCC is an alliance of six Arab
countries -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) -- on the Arabian Gulf. The GCC is already
splintered because of Saudi Arabia's air, land and sea blockade on
another GCC member, Qatar. Kuwait has been acting as a mediator, and
some analysts hoped that Tuesday's meeting would be used to negotiate
an end to the blockade of Qatar. However, Tuesday's agenda is likely
to be hijacked by the Yemen issue after the death of Saleh. Some
analysts are saying that the GCC is near complete collapse.
National Yemen and BBC and Al Jazeera
Related Articles:
- Yemen war changes direction with collapse of Iran-backed Houthi coalition (03-Dec-2017)
- UAE official says Arab blockade was engineered to prevent Qatar hosting 2022 World Cup (10-Oct-2017)
- Yemen's president Saleh hangs on to power as clashes spread to other towns (31-May-2011)
****
**** US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war
****
Over the weekend, the full realization of what the U.S. is facing from
North Korea became more clear and more stark. It's clear that for
three decades, US administrations have simply appeased the North
Koreans, falling time after time for North Korean promises that they
had no intention of keeping, just as Hitler was planning for
full-scale war as he promised "peace in our time."
If we continue on the same path as the last three decades, then:
- North Korea will develop ballistic missile and nuclear
weapons capability allowing them to strike American cities
with a nuclear weapon.
- That will be achieved in 10-18 months
- But that won't be the end of it. NK will manufacture an
entire fleet of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.
- NK will continue developing the capability to launch
these ballistic missiles from submarines.
- NK's ballistic missiles would be able to reach any target
in the world, including Europe, the Mideast, Asia and Australia.
- NK would sell this technology to other rogue nations,
including Iran, Venezuela and allies in Africa.
Many people believe that China and Russia would welcome these
developments by the North Koreans, since the missiles would be pointed
at America, not at China or Russia.
The administration seems to be signaling every day that we're one day
closer to war because of the North Korean threat.
Over the weekend, H.R. McMaster, President Trump’s national security
adviser, said:
<QUOTE>"The greatest immediate threat to the United States
and to the world is the threat posed by the rogue regime in North
Korea and his continued efforts to develop a long range nuclear
capability. ...
I think [the threat] is increasing every day. It means we’re in a
race. We’re in a race to be able to solve this problem.
There are ways to address this problem short of armed conflict,
but it is a race because he’s getting closer and closer and
there’s not much time left."<END QUOTE>
Sen. Lindsey Graham on CBS News said that the American military should
start preparing for war:
<QUOTE>"We're getting close to a military conflict because
North Korea's marching toward marrying up the technology of an
I.C.B.M. with a nuclear weapon on top that cannot only get to
America but deliver the weapon. We're running out of
time. McMaster said that yesterday. I'm going to urge the Pentagon
not to send any more dependents to South Korea.
South Korea should be an unaccompanied tour. It's crazy to send
spouses and children to South Korea, given the provocation of
North Korea. So I want them to stop sending dependents. And I
think it's now time to start moving American dependents out of
South Korea. ...
[Trump has] got the best national security team of anybody I've
seen since I've been in Washington. The president, himself, early
on, made the right decision: 'I'm not going to allow North Korea
to hit America with a nuclear weapon. We're not going to live
under that threat. If I have to go to war, and I don't want to, to
stop it, I will.'
Everybody before President Trump screwed it up, including
Republicans. Now we need to get it right. And I think he's got the
right approach. He's got the right team. I hope China will help
us. We're running out of time."<END QUOTE>
What would a military strike on North Korea look like? On Fox
Business Network on Monday, retired army lieutenant colonel Ralph
Peters described it as follow (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"This is not a question of a few surgical strikes. If
we wanted to destroy, DESTROY their capability to build a fleet of
ICBMs, with mated nuclear warheads, it would require an intensive
campaign, primarily, not exclusively from the air. It would run a
minimum of several weeks, possibly months - you can't predict
these things once you start pulling triggers.
And ultimately the question is the regime in North Korea: can,
should it survive?
So it's not just shooting a couple of launchers, knocking out some
missiles. You have to go after deep underground bunkers, research
facilities. You have to go after command and control, air
defense, intelligence, early warning. And so this is real war. If
we had to address the North Korea problem militarily, it's a
war. ...
Is it better to put American cities at risk of nuclear catastrophe
or at least nuclear blackmail, or to act while we
can?"<END QUOTE>
The logic of the imminent North Korean threat and these statements
from American officials is that a war is likely within 6-18 months.
South Korea and the US are holding joint military drills, the largest
ever, involving 12,000 US troops. There are also 230 US fighter jets,
including the brand new F-35 Lightning, two dozen stealth jets, and
over 200 fighters and bombers. North Korea has called it a
"preparation for war," and threatened unspecified action. Fox News and CBS News
Related Articles
- China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis (21-Nov-2017)
- Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China (09-Nov-2017)
- North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
****
**** Brexit negotiations collapse over Ireland border issue
****
Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, Carwyn Jones, First Minister of Wales, and Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London all tweet that if Northern Ireland is going to be favorably treated, then they must be favorably treated. (BBC)
Until midday Monday, the European media were reporting that a
breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU was
imminent. The reason that a breakthrough was predicted was because UK
prime minister Theresa May had repeatedly capitulated to the demands
of the EU on the three major "Phase I" issues.
The first Phase I issue was the "divorce bill," the amount that the UK
will have to pay the EU to leave, an amount as high as €60
billion. UK politician Nigel Farage, who spearheaded the Brexit
movement, famously once said that "the EU can whistle for that money."
Over a period of months, May had to agree to pay something, then had
to agree to pay €20 billion, and finally last week agreed to pay
about €50 billion. The EU considered this to be enough of a
commitment for the time being.
The second issue was the treatment of EU citizens working in the UK.
EU officials said that May had made significant concessions,
and that would be enough for the time being. However, the
role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in rejecting UK laws
is still an open question, as it has been all along.
The third issue is the problem of the border between Northern Ireland,
which is part of the UK, separating it from the Republic of Ireland,
which is part of the EU. When the UK leaves the EU, there would have
be border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland, a concept
that almost everyone rejects, because any border controls are thought
likely to result in a renewal of "The Troubles," the decades of
violence between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (Catholic,
Republican) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders
(Protestant, Unionist).
Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach (prime minister) of Ireland has stated
unequivocally that he would not approve any Brexit agreement that
reinstated border controls. The EU has stated unequivocally that the
EU would not agree to any proposal that Varadkar rejected, since
Ireland would be part of the EU after Brexit, and Northern Ireland and
the UK would not.
So apparently Theresa May's staff came up with some language late last
week that seemed to satisfy everyone. The details are unknown, but it
would provide some kind of special regulatory status to Northern
Ireland that would allow the borders to remain open. It was that
level of agreement that led the media to expect a breakthrough on
Monday, and Theresa May went off the Brussels to sign the deal.
While in Brussels, Theresa May placed a phone call to the Arlene
Foster, the leader of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party
(DUP), and Foster vetoed the plan. She said:
<QUOTE>"Northern Ireland must leave the EU on the same terms
as the rest of the UK. We will not accept any form of regulatory
divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or
politically from the rest of the United Kingdom."<END QUOTE>
The DUP is a very small but critical part of Theresa May's governing
coalition, but if they turn against her, then there will be new
elections in Britain. This is somewhat comical, since it's an outcome
nobody wants. May and her Tory party would probably lose the election
to the Labor Party, and the ultra-leftist Jeremy Corbyn would become
prime minister. Corbyn supports the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in
Ireland, which is the DUP's traditional enemy. Would Corbyn like to
be prime minister and take over Brexit negotiations with the EU? My
guess is that he enjoys seeing May take all the flak in trying
to solve the intractable Ireland problem.
On top of the veto by the DUP, the leaders of Scotland and Wales, and
the mayor of London all tweeted that if Northern Ireland gets special
treatment, then they should get special treatment too. Their tweets
are shown in the above graphic.
EU and UK leaders hope that these problems can all be resolved by the
December 14 summit meeting in Brussels. If so, then negotiations will
move onto trade issues, and those issues will be far more difficult to
resolve than the three Phase I issues. It's very hard to get past the
feeling that Brexit is a complete disaster for the UK, and probably
for the EU as well. Irish Times and BBC
Related Articles
- The issue of Ireland's border threatens to collapse EU-UK Brexit negotiations. (28-Nov-2017)
- Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again (23-Jun-2011)
- England threatened with IRA terrorists from Northern Ireland (12-May-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Houthis, Iran,
Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
North Korea, China, Russia, H.R. McMaster, Lindsey Graham,
Ralph Peters, Theresa May, Ireland, Leo Varadkar,
Arlene Foster, Democratic Unionist Party, DUP,
Jeremy Corbyn, Irish Republican Army, IRA
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
