12-09-2017, 11:09 PM
*** 10-Dec-17 World View -- Protests fizzle 3 days after Trump's Jerusalem announcement was universally condemned
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Protests fizzle 3 days after Trump's Jerusalem announcement was universally condemned
****
![[Image: g171209b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171209b.jpg)
Israeli troops clash with Palestinian demonstrators in Ramallah on Thursday (Sky News)
Wednesday's proclamation by president Donald Trump to recognize
Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel, and to relocate the
American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, has roiled international
media and politicians around the world.
International reaction was negative to the point of being
hysterical.
Pope Francis said:
<QUOTE>"I cannot silence my deep concern over the situation
that has emerged in recent days. At the same time, I appeal
strongly for all to respect the city's status quo, in accordance
with the relevant UN resolutions."<END QUOTE>
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said:
<QUOTE>"[The announcement] has a very worrying potential
impact. It is a very fragile context and the announcement has the
potential to send us backwards to even darker times than the ones
we are already living in."
The worst thing that could happen now is an escalation of tensions
around the holy places and in the region because what happens in
Jerusalem matters to the whole region and the entire
world."<END QUOTE>
Britain's Labor shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said that he
had taken a "hammer blow" to the peace process, and that "He is
setting it back decades."
Although these remarks are all underpinned by the usual hate-Israel
hate-Trump hate-America attitudes that are prevalent, there is an
underlying logic: It's pretty clear that the Mideast is headed for
all-out war, and the remarks reflect a fear that Trump's announcement
will trigger that war.
In fact, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, called for a new "intifada", or
uprising:
<QUOTE>"The American decision is an aggression against our
people. It's a declaration of war against our Palestinian people,
We should call for and we should work on launching an intifada in
the face of the Zionist enemy"<END QUOTE>
Haniya has repeatedly been trying to incite an intifada. News
stations like the BBC and al-Jazeera were almost gleefully
reporting anti-Israeli marches and riots in countries from
Indonesia to Germany.
But that was on the first day. By Saturday, the third day, almost all
the protests appeared to have fizzled out, as reported by the BBC and
al-Jazeera with a tone of disappointment.
A number of commentators tried to give reasons why the protests
had fizzled out. They all gave some version of the following reasons:
These reasons are ironic because if the new intifada had taken off,
and there were major Palestinian street protests with rioting and
demonstrations, then the same analysts would have explained that with
exactly the same list of reasons.
The real reason is that it's impossible to predict the exact timing of
popular street protests, any more than you can predict the exact
timing of stock market crashes. You can predict that they're coming
with absolute certainly, but you don't know if it will be next week,
next month, or next year.
None of the news shows that I heard attempted to explain the logic
of Trump's proclamation, as he stated in his speech:
<QUOTE>Presidents issued these waivers under the belief that
delaying the recognition of Jerusalem would advance the cause of
peace. Some say they lacked courage, but they made their best
judgments based on facts as they understood them at the
time. Nevertheless, the record is in. After more than two decades
of waivers, we are no closer to a lasting peace agreement between
Israel and the Palestinians. It would be folly to assume that
repeating the exact same formula would now produce a different or
better result.
Therefore, I have determined that it is time to officially
recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. ...
I've judged this course of action to be in the best interests of
the United States of America and the pursuit of peace between
Israel and the Palestinians. This is a long-overdue step to
advance the peace process and to work towards a lasting
agreement. ...
That is why, consistent with the Jerusalem Embassy Act, I am also
directing the State Department to begin preparation to move the
American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This will immediately
begin the process of hiring architects, engineers, and planners,
so that a new embassy, when completed, will be a magnificent
tribute to peace."<END QUOTE>
In other words, as I've been saying for years, and as pretty much
everybody knows by this time, there is zero probability that the
"peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians is going to
achieve anything. I had to laugh when one analyst was asked whether
the peace process was already dead, said that was true, but Trump's
announcement makes it even less likely. I guess this analyst wasn't
aware that if the probability of an event occurring is already zero,
then it can't go any lower, and so Trump's proclamation would leave
the chances of a successful peace process unchanged.
But carrying this logic one step further, if the probability of
a successful peace agreement is zero, then the probability could
go up, and Trump's proclamation might change the politics in the
region to make a peace treaty possible. That in fact is what
Trump is claiming, and there are reports that the administration
will be presenting a new peace plan soon.
Trump is using exactly the same kind of logic with respect to North
Korea. After three decades of appeasement of North Korea, we're headed
for a disaster when North Korea will have an arsenal of nuclear-tipped
ballistic missiles pointed at the United States, which he will try to
use in an extortion to gain control of South Korea, and he will sell
the nuclear weapon and ballistic missile technology to rogue states
like Iran and Venezuela. Trump's tweets have been very aggressive and
threatening toward North Korea, much to the dismay of the
international community, but the objective is to try something
different from the policies that have been failing for three decades.
Unfortunately, the Generational Dynamics prediction doesn't change.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
Trump's proclamation about Jerusalem, and Trump's tweets about North
Korea could change the scenario by which the Generational Dynamics
predictions occur, but the final outcomes cannot change. And no one
can predict what will trigger the coming Mideast war. So it's
possible that Trump's critics will turn out to be right, and that his
proclamation will turn out to be the trigger for new street riots next
week, and for the coming war. White House and Sky News and BBC and
Times of Israel and Debka (Israel)
Related Articles
****
**** Trump's proclamation hardens splits among Arab countries
****
No Arab country could publicly support Trump's proclamation, or even
fail to criticize as the latest blow to Palestinian dreams. Doing so
would create an enormous backlash within the Arab community. However,
it's turning out that the proclamation has been splitting Arab
countries along lines that we've seen before.
The key is Saudi Arabia. Officials representing Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) described the decision as "unjustified and
irresponsible" and "a big step back in efforts to advance the peace
process and is a violation of the historically neutral American
position on Jerusalem."
But behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia is said to be "on board" with the
decision and the broader US strategy. Saudi Arabia has for decades
depended heavily on the United States and the west for security, which
the West provides in exchange for a reliable supply of Mideast oil.
Furthermore, MBS and Israel are becoming very strongly aligned with
regard to what they see as their greatest common existential threat:
Iran.
So Saudi Arabia has provided a muted criticism to the proclamation,
and so have the UAE and Egypt. These are the countries that
implemented a land, sea and air blockade against Qatar last summer,
and that blockade is still in place.
On the other side, we see Iran, Jordan and Turkey harshly critical.
These are the same countries on the other side of the Saudi blockade.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said:
<QUOTE>"[Trump is] throwing the region into a ring of fire.
What do you want to do Mr Trump? What kind of an approach is this?
Political leaders exist not to create struggles but to make
peace."<END QUOTE>
When I can, I like to quote Marwan Bishara, the principal analyst from
Qatar-based al-Jazeera, and clearly represents the Qatar position.
Bishara hates Israel a great deal, but he hates the Palestinian
Authority and Mahmoud Abbas even more because he sees them as
traitors, selling out the Palestinians to Israel.
On Saturday, Bishara said that Saudi Arabia and Trump are going to
give half of the West Bank to Israel, and that "The Saudis are
sacrificing Palestine to create some sort of a front against Iran."
Reuters and Middle East Monitor and Reuters and Debka (7-Dec)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Jerusalem, Pope Francis,
Federica Mogherini, Emily Thornberry, Hamas, Ismail Haniya,
North Korea, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran,
Marwan Bishara, Qatar, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Protests fizzle 3 days after Trump's Jerusalem announcement was universally condemned
- Trump's proclamation hardens splits among Arab countries
****
**** Protests fizzle 3 days after Trump's Jerusalem announcement was universally condemned
****
Israeli troops clash with Palestinian demonstrators in Ramallah on Thursday (Sky News)
Wednesday's proclamation by president Donald Trump to recognize
Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Israel, and to relocate the
American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, has roiled international
media and politicians around the world.
International reaction was negative to the point of being
hysterical.
Pope Francis said:
<QUOTE>"I cannot silence my deep concern over the situation
that has emerged in recent days. At the same time, I appeal
strongly for all to respect the city's status quo, in accordance
with the relevant UN resolutions."<END QUOTE>
EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said:
<QUOTE>"[The announcement] has a very worrying potential
impact. It is a very fragile context and the announcement has the
potential to send us backwards to even darker times than the ones
we are already living in."
The worst thing that could happen now is an escalation of tensions
around the holy places and in the region because what happens in
Jerusalem matters to the whole region and the entire
world."<END QUOTE>
Britain's Labor shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said that he
had taken a "hammer blow" to the peace process, and that "He is
setting it back decades."
Although these remarks are all underpinned by the usual hate-Israel
hate-Trump hate-America attitudes that are prevalent, there is an
underlying logic: It's pretty clear that the Mideast is headed for
all-out war, and the remarks reflect a fear that Trump's announcement
will trigger that war.
In fact, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, called for a new "intifada", or
uprising:
<QUOTE>"The American decision is an aggression against our
people. It's a declaration of war against our Palestinian people,
We should call for and we should work on launching an intifada in
the face of the Zionist enemy"<END QUOTE>
Haniya has repeatedly been trying to incite an intifada. News
stations like the BBC and al-Jazeera were almost gleefully
reporting anti-Israeli marches and riots in countries from
Indonesia to Germany.
But that was on the first day. By Saturday, the third day, almost all
the protests appeared to have fizzled out, as reported by the BBC and
al-Jazeera with a tone of disappointment.
A number of commentators tried to give reasons why the protests
had fizzled out. They all gave some version of the following reasons:
- The Palestinians are tired because they've seen no
progress since the 1994 Oslo accords.
- The Palestinians live in poverty.
- The Palestinians have no faith in their leaders.
These reasons are ironic because if the new intifada had taken off,
and there were major Palestinian street protests with rioting and
demonstrations, then the same analysts would have explained that with
exactly the same list of reasons.
The real reason is that it's impossible to predict the exact timing of
popular street protests, any more than you can predict the exact
timing of stock market crashes. You can predict that they're coming
with absolute certainly, but you don't know if it will be next week,
next month, or next year.
None of the news shows that I heard attempted to explain the logic
of Trump's proclamation, as he stated in his speech:
<QUOTE>Presidents issued these waivers under the belief that
delaying the recognition of Jerusalem would advance the cause of
peace. Some say they lacked courage, but they made their best
judgments based on facts as they understood them at the
time. Nevertheless, the record is in. After more than two decades
of waivers, we are no closer to a lasting peace agreement between
Israel and the Palestinians. It would be folly to assume that
repeating the exact same formula would now produce a different or
better result.
Therefore, I have determined that it is time to officially
recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. ...
I've judged this course of action to be in the best interests of
the United States of America and the pursuit of peace between
Israel and the Palestinians. This is a long-overdue step to
advance the peace process and to work towards a lasting
agreement. ...
That is why, consistent with the Jerusalem Embassy Act, I am also
directing the State Department to begin preparation to move the
American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This will immediately
begin the process of hiring architects, engineers, and planners,
so that a new embassy, when completed, will be a magnificent
tribute to peace."<END QUOTE>
In other words, as I've been saying for years, and as pretty much
everybody knows by this time, there is zero probability that the
"peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians is going to
achieve anything. I had to laugh when one analyst was asked whether
the peace process was already dead, said that was true, but Trump's
announcement makes it even less likely. I guess this analyst wasn't
aware that if the probability of an event occurring is already zero,
then it can't go any lower, and so Trump's proclamation would leave
the chances of a successful peace process unchanged.
But carrying this logic one step further, if the probability of
a successful peace agreement is zero, then the probability could
go up, and Trump's proclamation might change the politics in the
region to make a peace treaty possible. That in fact is what
Trump is claiming, and there are reports that the administration
will be presenting a new peace plan soon.
Trump is using exactly the same kind of logic with respect to North
Korea. After three decades of appeasement of North Korea, we're headed
for a disaster when North Korea will have an arsenal of nuclear-tipped
ballistic missiles pointed at the United States, which he will try to
use in an extortion to gain control of South Korea, and he will sell
the nuclear weapon and ballistic missile technology to rogue states
like Iran and Venezuela. Trump's tweets have been very aggressive and
threatening toward North Korea, much to the dismay of the
international community, but the objective is to try something
different from the policies that have been failing for three decades.
Unfortunately, the Generational Dynamics prediction doesn't change.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics
predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the
"axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be
pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran.
Trump's proclamation about Jerusalem, and Trump's tweets about North
Korea could change the scenario by which the Generational Dynamics
predictions occur, but the final outcomes cannot change. And no one
can predict what will trigger the coming Mideast war. So it's
possible that Trump's critics will turn out to be right, and that his
proclamation will turn out to be the trigger for new street riots next
week, and for the coming war. White House and Sky News and BBC and
Times of Israel and Debka (Israel)
Related Articles
- Israel braces for new 'day of rage' at al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem on Friday (27-Jul-2017)
- Tensions at Jerusalem's al-Aqsa Mosque / Temple Mount surge again (17-Jul-2017)
- Palestinian 'day of rage' in Jerusalem results in six deaths, hundreds injured (22-Jul-2017)
****
**** Trump's proclamation hardens splits among Arab countries
****
No Arab country could publicly support Trump's proclamation, or even
fail to criticize as the latest blow to Palestinian dreams. Doing so
would create an enormous backlash within the Arab community. However,
it's turning out that the proclamation has been splitting Arab
countries along lines that we've seen before.
The key is Saudi Arabia. Officials representing Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) described the decision as "unjustified and
irresponsible" and "a big step back in efforts to advance the peace
process and is a violation of the historically neutral American
position on Jerusalem."
But behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia is said to be "on board" with the
decision and the broader US strategy. Saudi Arabia has for decades
depended heavily on the United States and the west for security, which
the West provides in exchange for a reliable supply of Mideast oil.
Furthermore, MBS and Israel are becoming very strongly aligned with
regard to what they see as their greatest common existential threat:
Iran.
So Saudi Arabia has provided a muted criticism to the proclamation,
and so have the UAE and Egypt. These are the countries that
implemented a land, sea and air blockade against Qatar last summer,
and that blockade is still in place.
On the other side, we see Iran, Jordan and Turkey harshly critical.
These are the same countries on the other side of the Saudi blockade.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said:
<QUOTE>"[Trump is] throwing the region into a ring of fire.
What do you want to do Mr Trump? What kind of an approach is this?
Political leaders exist not to create struggles but to make
peace."<END QUOTE>
When I can, I like to quote Marwan Bishara, the principal analyst from
Qatar-based al-Jazeera, and clearly represents the Qatar position.
Bishara hates Israel a great deal, but he hates the Palestinian
Authority and Mahmoud Abbas even more because he sees them as
traitors, selling out the Palestinians to Israel.
On Saturday, Bishara said that Saudi Arabia and Trump are going to
give half of the West Bank to Israel, and that "The Saudis are
sacrificing Palestine to create some sort of a front against Iran."
Reuters and Middle East Monitor and Reuters and Debka (7-Dec)
Related Articles
- Israel and Saudi Arabia prepare for war with Hezbollah, as Syria war winds down (02-Nov-2017)
- Qatar and Saudi Arabia have vitriolic exchange at Arab League meeting (13-Sep-2017)
- As Hajj approaches, Iran and Qatar remain in dispute with Saudi Arabia (27-Aug-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Jerusalem, Pope Francis,
Federica Mogherini, Emily Thornberry, Hamas, Ismail Haniya,
North Korea, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
UAE, Egypt, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran,
Marwan Bishara, Qatar, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
