12-12-2017, 11:41 PM
*** 13-Dec-17 World View -- China's warplanes conduct 'encirclement' patrols around Taiwan's and Japan's islands
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China's warplanes conduct 'encirclement' patrols around Taiwan's and Japan's islands
****
![[Image: g171212b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171212b.jpg)
China military parade (China Daily)
China’s air force has conducted “island encirclement patrols” through
international airspace near Taiwan and between the Japanese islands of
Okinawa and Miyako in the East China Sea. The People’s Liberation
Army Air Force (PLAAF) sent two Xian long-range bombers, two fighter
jets, an electronic countermeasures aircraft, and an electronic
intelligence plane.
China has conducted this kinds of patrols before, but these patrols
were considerably more extensive than in the past. According to
China's state media:
<QUOTE>"The PLA Air Force focused on combat readiness and has
conducted a series of offshore and maritime training. The PLA
warplanes' flight paths are continuously extended, with combat
readiness growing accordingly.
The PLA Air Force's actions are justified and consistent with
international laws and practices. The PLA Air Force will stick to
its set plans and continue to fly further and deeper.
The air force started regular high seas training in 2015. The PLA
planes circling the island of Taiwan will become routine during
their training."<END QUOTE>
China has conducted numerous similar patrols near Taiwan this year,
saying such practices have been normalized as it presses ahead with a
military modernization program that includes building aircraft
carriers and stealth fighters to give it the ability to project power
far from its shores. The Diplomat and Reuters and Global Times
****
**** Encirclement patrols follow explicit Chinese war threats against Taiwan
****
The latest encirclement patrol is thought to be a show of force
following an explicit threat made last week by a Chinese diplomat in
Washington.
Li Kexin, a Chinese embassy official, last Friday said that he has
been thanking Congressional aides for providing China with a reason to
use force to resolve the Taiwan question.
<QUOTE>"I may have to thank you American friends. I said:
‘Are you not going to send military vessels to Taiwan, to
[Taiwan's port of] Kaohsiung?' If you send military vessels over
there, [you] will activate the Anti-Secession Law [of
China]."<END QUOTE>
Picking this apart, Li is making a joke. He's referring to
suggestions from American officials that the US Navy should make port
calls at ports in Taiwan, as it does in many other countries. Li is
saying that any US naval vessel at Taiwan's largest port, Kaohsiung,
would trigger China's Anti-Secession Law, followed by an invasion by
China's armed forces to take control of Taiwan.
The Anti-secession law provoked massive Taiwan riots
when it passed in March, 2005. It orders the
army to invade Taiwan if any Taiwanese official makes any move toward
independence, whether by word or by deed.
Excerpts of the law are as follows:
<QUOTE>"Article 2: There is only one China in the world. Both
the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China's sovereignty
and territorial integrity brook no division. Safeguarding China's
sovereignty and territorial integrity is the common obligation of
all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included.
Taiwan is part of China. The state shall never allow the "Taiwan
independence" secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from China
under any name or by any means. ...
Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence"
secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to
cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major
incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or
that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be
completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means
and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and
territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>
I've written about the Anti-Secession law many times since 2005, and
I've pointed out many times that statements by Taiwanese officials
seemed to be promoting independence, and that therefore already should
trigger the Anti-Secession Law. On the other hand, it's hard to see
why a port call by a naval vessels, so that the American soldiers
could visit Taipei's bars and perhaps get a drink or a date, would be
promoting independence at all.
Since the threat was issued by a low-level Chinese diplomat in
Washington, and was phrased as a joke, it's hard to see the threat as
intended to be serious. In fact, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman
seemed to play down the threat when asked about it:
<QUOTE>"The position of the Chinese government on the Taiwan
issue, which I believe you and all the journalists here are quite
clear about, is consistent and clear. We will continue adhering to
the policy of "peaceful reunification and one country, two
systems" in an effort to advance the peaceful development of
cross-straits relations and promote the process of peaceful
reunification of our motherland. Meanwhile, we will firmly uphold
national sovereignty and territorial integrity and never tolerate
the recurrence of the historical tragedy of national
division."<END QUOTE>
However, China's state media Global Times is issuing a veiled warning
that Taiwan's ruling DPP party and the US do not understand the full
impact of the anti-secession law, and that an invasion could come at
any time:
<QUOTE>"The island under the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) has become deficient of both direction and sense of
security.
The Chinese mainland has never given up the option of Taiwan
reunification by force, which is clear to people across the Taiwan
Straits. But Taiwan is not sure what will prompt the PLA's actions
while the DPP has been deceiving Taiwanese that the island will
stay safe whatever it does.
Taiwan knows so little of the mainland's Anti-Secession Law. The
DPP is already approaching the boundary of the law and leading
Taiwan to a wrong direction. The sustainability of the island's
development remains uncertain.
Li's words have sent a warning to Taiwan and drew a clear red
line. If Taiwan attempts to hold an independence referendum or
other activities in pursuit of de jure "Taiwan independence," the
PLA will undoubtedly take action.
This is the cornerstone of Beijing's policy on Taiwan that can't
be shaken and also the will of the entire Chinese nation. ...
Li's words are like warning bells on Taiwan authorities
considering independence by a salami-slicing strategy. Taiwan is
facing what Peking faced in 1949 - being encircled by mainland
forces. Any move that oversteps the boundary will be in
vain."<END QUOTE>
Maritime Executive and Reuters and China Embassy (15-Mar-2005) and China's Foreign Ministry and Global Times
****
**** China unification continues to lose support among the people of Taiwan
****
As I've been describing for years, Taiwan's attitudes toward unifying
Taiwan with China have been increasingly favoring independence, as
younger generations with no memory of the Chinese civil war displace
the survivors that war, when they fled Mao Zedong and China's mainland
in 1949 for the island of Formosa, which eventually became part of the
current Taiwan.
Taiwan's current government party, the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP), has favored Taiwan's independence since it became prominent in
the 1990s, as a reaction to China's Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
The opposing party is Kuomintang (KMT), which was the party formed by
the Chinese who fled Mao for Formosa. They have traditionally favored
Taiwan's unification with China, with the caveat that they consider
Taiwan's to be the legitimate government of all of China.
The name-calling between the DPP and KMT has been pretty harsh over
the years, so I was a bit surprised to read the following in a Taipei
News news story about the invasion threat:
<QUOTE>"Meanwhile, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Culture
and Communications Committee deputy director-general Hung Meng-kai
said that the KMT would not tolerate any threats or
finger-pointing aimed at the Republic of China’s [Taiwan's]
homeland or the security of its people.
The DPP administration should face up to the importance of
maintaining peaceful cross-strait relations and avoid any
unnecessary misunderstandings that could cause irrepressible
losses to Taiwan, he added."<END QUOTE>
I interpret this as a sign that China's unending stream of belligerent
threats aimed at Taiwan is causing the KMT and DPP to move closer
together and become more unified in opposing unification with China.
This isn't the least bit surprising in view of China's extremely
vitriolic attacks on Taiwan's politicians, especially DPP politicians.
Chinese officials are aware of this trend, and although they pay lip
service to "peaceful unification," everybody is well aware that there
will never be peaceful unification. China is biding its time, waiting
for the right trigger to justify an invasion. It's possible, though
unlikely, that a mere port call would be enough to trigger a major
war, though anything is possible. Taipei Times and China Policy Analysis (22-Mar-2016) and The Diplomat
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Taiwan, Kaohsiung, Li Kexin, Anti-Secession Law,
Chinese Nationalist Party, Kuomintang, KMT,
Democratic Progressive Party, DPP
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China's warplanes conduct 'encirclement' patrols around Taiwan's and Japan's islands
- Encirclement patrols follow explicit Chinese war threats against Taiwan
- China unification continues to lose support among the people of Taiwan
****
**** China's warplanes conduct 'encirclement' patrols around Taiwan's and Japan's islands
****
China military parade (China Daily)
China’s air force has conducted “island encirclement patrols” through
international airspace near Taiwan and between the Japanese islands of
Okinawa and Miyako in the East China Sea. The People’s Liberation
Army Air Force (PLAAF) sent two Xian long-range bombers, two fighter
jets, an electronic countermeasures aircraft, and an electronic
intelligence plane.
China has conducted this kinds of patrols before, but these patrols
were considerably more extensive than in the past. According to
China's state media:
<QUOTE>"The PLA Air Force focused on combat readiness and has
conducted a series of offshore and maritime training. The PLA
warplanes' flight paths are continuously extended, with combat
readiness growing accordingly.
The PLA Air Force's actions are justified and consistent with
international laws and practices. The PLA Air Force will stick to
its set plans and continue to fly further and deeper.
The air force started regular high seas training in 2015. The PLA
planes circling the island of Taiwan will become routine during
their training."<END QUOTE>
China has conducted numerous similar patrols near Taiwan this year,
saying such practices have been normalized as it presses ahead with a
military modernization program that includes building aircraft
carriers and stealth fighters to give it the ability to project power
far from its shores. The Diplomat and Reuters and Global Times
****
**** Encirclement patrols follow explicit Chinese war threats against Taiwan
****
The latest encirclement patrol is thought to be a show of force
following an explicit threat made last week by a Chinese diplomat in
Washington.
Li Kexin, a Chinese embassy official, last Friday said that he has
been thanking Congressional aides for providing China with a reason to
use force to resolve the Taiwan question.
<QUOTE>"I may have to thank you American friends. I said:
‘Are you not going to send military vessels to Taiwan, to
[Taiwan's port of] Kaohsiung?' If you send military vessels over
there, [you] will activate the Anti-Secession Law [of
China]."<END QUOTE>
Picking this apart, Li is making a joke. He's referring to
suggestions from American officials that the US Navy should make port
calls at ports in Taiwan, as it does in many other countries. Li is
saying that any US naval vessel at Taiwan's largest port, Kaohsiung,
would trigger China's Anti-Secession Law, followed by an invasion by
China's armed forces to take control of Taiwan.
The Anti-secession law provoked massive Taiwan riots
when it passed in March, 2005. It orders the
army to invade Taiwan if any Taiwanese official makes any move toward
independence, whether by word or by deed.
Excerpts of the law are as follows:
<QUOTE>"Article 2: There is only one China in the world. Both
the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China's sovereignty
and territorial integrity brook no division. Safeguarding China's
sovereignty and territorial integrity is the common obligation of
all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included.
Taiwan is part of China. The state shall never allow the "Taiwan
independence" secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from China
under any name or by any means. ...
Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence"
secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to
cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major
incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or
that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be
completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means
and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and
territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>
I've written about the Anti-Secession law many times since 2005, and
I've pointed out many times that statements by Taiwanese officials
seemed to be promoting independence, and that therefore already should
trigger the Anti-Secession Law. On the other hand, it's hard to see
why a port call by a naval vessels, so that the American soldiers
could visit Taipei's bars and perhaps get a drink or a date, would be
promoting independence at all.
Since the threat was issued by a low-level Chinese diplomat in
Washington, and was phrased as a joke, it's hard to see the threat as
intended to be serious. In fact, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman
seemed to play down the threat when asked about it:
<QUOTE>"The position of the Chinese government on the Taiwan
issue, which I believe you and all the journalists here are quite
clear about, is consistent and clear. We will continue adhering to
the policy of "peaceful reunification and one country, two
systems" in an effort to advance the peaceful development of
cross-straits relations and promote the process of peaceful
reunification of our motherland. Meanwhile, we will firmly uphold
national sovereignty and territorial integrity and never tolerate
the recurrence of the historical tragedy of national
division."<END QUOTE>
However, China's state media Global Times is issuing a veiled warning
that Taiwan's ruling DPP party and the US do not understand the full
impact of the anti-secession law, and that an invasion could come at
any time:
<QUOTE>"The island under the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) has become deficient of both direction and sense of
security.
The Chinese mainland has never given up the option of Taiwan
reunification by force, which is clear to people across the Taiwan
Straits. But Taiwan is not sure what will prompt the PLA's actions
while the DPP has been deceiving Taiwanese that the island will
stay safe whatever it does.
Taiwan knows so little of the mainland's Anti-Secession Law. The
DPP is already approaching the boundary of the law and leading
Taiwan to a wrong direction. The sustainability of the island's
development remains uncertain.
Li's words have sent a warning to Taiwan and drew a clear red
line. If Taiwan attempts to hold an independence referendum or
other activities in pursuit of de jure "Taiwan independence," the
PLA will undoubtedly take action.
This is the cornerstone of Beijing's policy on Taiwan that can't
be shaken and also the will of the entire Chinese nation. ...
Li's words are like warning bells on Taiwan authorities
considering independence by a salami-slicing strategy. Taiwan is
facing what Peking faced in 1949 - being encircled by mainland
forces. Any move that oversteps the boundary will be in
vain."<END QUOTE>
Maritime Executive and Reuters and China Embassy (15-Mar-2005) and China's Foreign Ministry and Global Times
****
**** China unification continues to lose support among the people of Taiwan
****
As I've been describing for years, Taiwan's attitudes toward unifying
Taiwan with China have been increasingly favoring independence, as
younger generations with no memory of the Chinese civil war displace
the survivors that war, when they fled Mao Zedong and China's mainland
in 1949 for the island of Formosa, which eventually became part of the
current Taiwan.
Taiwan's current government party, the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP), has favored Taiwan's independence since it became prominent in
the 1990s, as a reaction to China's Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
The opposing party is Kuomintang (KMT), which was the party formed by
the Chinese who fled Mao for Formosa. They have traditionally favored
Taiwan's unification with China, with the caveat that they consider
Taiwan's to be the legitimate government of all of China.
The name-calling between the DPP and KMT has been pretty harsh over
the years, so I was a bit surprised to read the following in a Taipei
News news story about the invasion threat:
<QUOTE>"Meanwhile, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Culture
and Communications Committee deputy director-general Hung Meng-kai
said that the KMT would not tolerate any threats or
finger-pointing aimed at the Republic of China’s [Taiwan's]
homeland or the security of its people.
The DPP administration should face up to the importance of
maintaining peaceful cross-strait relations and avoid any
unnecessary misunderstandings that could cause irrepressible
losses to Taiwan, he added."<END QUOTE>
I interpret this as a sign that China's unending stream of belligerent
threats aimed at Taiwan is causing the KMT and DPP to move closer
together and become more unified in opposing unification with China.
This isn't the least bit surprising in view of China's extremely
vitriolic attacks on Taiwan's politicians, especially DPP politicians.
Chinese officials are aware of this trend, and although they pay lip
service to "peaceful unification," everybody is well aware that there
will never be peaceful unification. China is biding its time, waiting
for the right trigger to justify an invasion. It's possible, though
unlikely, that a mere port call would be enough to trigger a major
war, though anything is possible. Taipei Times and China Policy Analysis (22-Mar-2016) and The Diplomat
Related Articles
- Anti-secession law provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
- Kidnapping and sham trial of Lee Ming-che brings China-Taiwan relations to another low (14-Sep-2017)
- Taiwan says it must defend against increasingly threatening China (18-Mar-2017)
- Chinese bombers circling Taiwan raise talk of war during Trump's first term (19-Dec-2016)
- New Taiwan poll shows overwhelming support for independence from China (02-Jun-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Taiwan, Kaohsiung, Li Kexin, Anti-Secession Law,
Chinese Nationalist Party, Kuomintang, KMT,
Democratic Progressive Party, DPP
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
