12-29-2017, 10:50 PM
*** 30-Dec-17 World View -- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran
****
![[Image: g171229b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g171229b.jpg)
Anti-government demonstrations in Mashad, Iran, on Thursday (AP)
A small Thursday protest in northeastern Iran against the economic
policies of Iran's president Hassan Rouhani has spread on Friday to
become a general anti-government protest in cities across Iran. The
protesters are now targeting not just Rouhani, but the entire regime
of Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei.
Iran's economy has become increasingly desperate, and politician's
statements blaming Iran's economy on outside forces (i.e., the United
States) are increasingly disbelieved.
Egg prices in Iran had doubled since last week, due to the
government's culling of millions of chickens diagnosed with avian flu.
Unemployment stood at 12.4% in this fiscal year, according to the
Statistical Centre of Iran, up 1.4% from the previous year. About 3.2
million Iranians are jobless, out of a total population of 80 million.
Rouhani had promised that the economy would improve significantly
after Iran reached the nuclear deal with America and the West, because
of the removal of economic sanctions. However, the money that was
derived from the removal of sanctions has been wasted on government
corruption and foreign wars.
The slogans being chanted by protesters in different countries have
been collected by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI /
MEK), an organization led by Maryam Rajavi, advocating the removal of
the hardline Iranian regime. Some of the slogans are listed below.
The original protests on Thursday were about the economy and
government corruption:
By Friday, they had morphed into general anti-government and
anti-regime protests:
Anti-war protests zeroed in on Iran's enormous expenditures on war
efforts for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen:
Maryam Rajavi, referenced above, said:
<QUOTE>"This uprising has tolled the death knell for the
overthrow of the totally corrupt dictatorship of the mullahs, and
is the rise of democracy, justice and popular sovereignty.
The four-decade record of the mullahs’ rule has been nothing but
inflation, poverty and corruption, torture and execution, killings
and aggression. The bulk of the people’s wealth, including the
money released in the nuclear deal, is either spent on repression
and export of terrorism and war, or is plundered by the regime’s
leaders. The overthrow of the religious fascism is the first step
to get out of the crisis that is intensifying every day.
The mullahs’ regime has no future; investment on it is doomed to
failure, and it is time for the international community to not tie
their fate to this regime and recognize the Iranian people
Resistance to overthrow that regime."<END QUOTE>
Ms. Rajavi's statement is interesting, because it's almost formulaic
in being similar in tone to screeds by American anti-war activists in
the 1960s and 1970s, and indeed to screeds by anti-Donald Trump
politicians today. Payvand (Iran) and
Bloomberg and Deutsche Welle and Al Arabiya
****
**** Iran's regime begins responding to the protests
****
As I've been writing for years, Iran's population is behaving like a
typical country in a generational Awakening era. This is one
generation past the previous generational crisis war, in this case the
1979 Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.
America's last generational Awakening era was the 1960s-70s, one
generation past the end of World War II. There was a "generation gap"
pitting the traumatized survivors of World War II versus the Boomers
who grew up after the war, and were not traumatized. There were
student riots, long hot summers, the Summer of Love, bra-burning,
anti-war protests, Kent State shootings, all culminating in the
Awakening era climax, the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974.
We don't know when it's going to happen, but Iran is headed for a
similar climax. Perhaps it will be on the death of the current
79-year-old Supreme Leader, or perhaps it will be based on some sort
of electoral change, as happened with Richard Nixon.
In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations
started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's
generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally
suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today,
those students are 30-40 years old, and have risen to positions of
power, ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies
off. And by the way, this is also true within the ranks of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi
Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons
why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States,
along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries.
There was a serious split between hardliners and moderates in Iran's
government after the 2009 presidential elections, when young people
were protesting, and there was blood running in the streets because
Iran's security forces were massacring students and other protesters.
Khamenei wanted the security forces to be completely unleashed, so
they could kill, torture, rape, jail and bash anyone they wanted with
impunity, while the moderates in the government wanted to permit
peaceful protests, and wanted the jailed protesters to be released.
Iran's government was extremely embarrassed by its violent response to
peaceful protesters in 2009, and want to avoid a repeat, as indicated
Friday by hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda:
<QUOTE>"If the security and law enforcement agencies leave
the rioters to themselves, enemies will publish films and pictures
in their media and say that the Islamic Republic system has lost
its revolutionary base in Mashhad."<END QUOTE>
So Iran's government is in a quandary. The protests are small now,
although they're a lot more widespread than the 2009 protests, which
were mainly limited to Tehran. If the protests fizzle out by
themselves, then all will be well for the time being. But if the
protests grow in the next days and weeks, then the government will be
forced to crush them, and as Alamolhoda says, world media will be
filled with pictures and video of blood running in the streets of
Tehran, as in 2009. BBC and
Iran Front Page and Reuters
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, PMOI/MEK, Maryam Rajavi,
Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen,
Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war, Ahmad Alamolhoda
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran
- Iran's regime begins responding to the protests
****
**** Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran
****
Anti-government demonstrations in Mashad, Iran, on Thursday (AP)
A small Thursday protest in northeastern Iran against the economic
policies of Iran's president Hassan Rouhani has spread on Friday to
become a general anti-government protest in cities across Iran. The
protesters are now targeting not just Rouhani, but the entire regime
of Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei.
Iran's economy has become increasingly desperate, and politician's
statements blaming Iran's economy on outside forces (i.e., the United
States) are increasingly disbelieved.
Egg prices in Iran had doubled since last week, due to the
government's culling of millions of chickens diagnosed with avian flu.
Unemployment stood at 12.4% in this fiscal year, according to the
Statistical Centre of Iran, up 1.4% from the previous year. About 3.2
million Iranians are jobless, out of a total population of 80 million.
Rouhani had promised that the economy would improve significantly
after Iran reached the nuclear deal with America and the West, because
of the removal of economic sanctions. However, the money that was
derived from the removal of sanctions has been wasted on government
corruption and foreign wars.
The slogans being chanted by protesters in different countries have
been collected by the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI /
MEK), an organization led by Maryam Rajavi, advocating the removal of
the hardline Iranian regime. Some of the slogans are listed below.
The original protests on Thursday were about the economy and
government corruption:
- Bread, work, freedom
- The nation is destitute while the leader is acting like God
- Young people are unemployed,
and mullahs have all the positions
- Execute the economically corrupt
- If you stop one case of embezzlement,
our problem will be solved
By Friday, they had morphed into general anti-government and
anti-regime protests:
- Seyed Ali [Khamenei] shame on you let go of our country
- Dignified Iranians, join your people
- We don’t want an Islamic Republic
- Dignified Iranians, support us, support us
- Death to the Dictator
- Death to Rouhani
- Don’t be afraid, we are all united
- Political prisoners should be freed
- Shame on you
- Death or freedom
Anti-war protests zeroed in on Iran's enormous expenditures on war
efforts for Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen:
- Leave Syria, think about us
- Guns and tanks! The mullahs must be killed
- Death to Hezbollah
- Leave Syria alone, think about us instead
- Forget about Gaza and Lebanon; I’ll sacrifice my life for Iran
- Never mind Palestine, think about us
Maryam Rajavi, referenced above, said:
<QUOTE>"This uprising has tolled the death knell for the
overthrow of the totally corrupt dictatorship of the mullahs, and
is the rise of democracy, justice and popular sovereignty.
The four-decade record of the mullahs’ rule has been nothing but
inflation, poverty and corruption, torture and execution, killings
and aggression. The bulk of the people’s wealth, including the
money released in the nuclear deal, is either spent on repression
and export of terrorism and war, or is plundered by the regime’s
leaders. The overthrow of the religious fascism is the first step
to get out of the crisis that is intensifying every day.
The mullahs’ regime has no future; investment on it is doomed to
failure, and it is time for the international community to not tie
their fate to this regime and recognize the Iranian people
Resistance to overthrow that regime."<END QUOTE>
Ms. Rajavi's statement is interesting, because it's almost formulaic
in being similar in tone to screeds by American anti-war activists in
the 1960s and 1970s, and indeed to screeds by anti-Donald Trump
politicians today. Payvand (Iran) and
Bloomberg and Deutsche Welle and Al Arabiya
****
**** Iran's regime begins responding to the protests
****
As I've been writing for years, Iran's population is behaving like a
typical country in a generational Awakening era. This is one
generation past the previous generational crisis war, in this case the
1979 Great Islamic Revolution and Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.
America's last generational Awakening era was the 1960s-70s, one
generation past the end of World War II. There was a "generation gap"
pitting the traumatized survivors of World War II versus the Boomers
who grew up after the war, and were not traumatized. There were
student riots, long hot summers, the Summer of Love, bra-burning,
anti-war protests, Kent State shootings, all culminating in the
Awakening era climax, the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974.
We don't know when it's going to happen, but Iran is headed for a
similar climax. Perhaps it will be on the death of the current
79-year-old Supreme Leader, or perhaps it will be based on some sort
of electoral change, as happened with Richard Nixon.
In the late 1990s, college students in these younger generations
started holding pro-Western and pro-American protests, during Iran's
generational Awakening era. Khamenei and the Iran hardliners brutally
suppressed those protests, but doing so didn't change minds. Today,
those students are 30-40 years old, and have risen to positions of
power, ready to take over when the current hardline leadership dies
off. And by the way, this is also true within the ranks of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
They are generally pro-Western and pro-American, and consider Saudi
Arabia to be an existential threat. This is one of several reasons
why I've been saying for years that, in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, Iran will be an ally of the United States,
along with Russia and India, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni
Muslim countries.
There was a serious split between hardliners and moderates in Iran's
government after the 2009 presidential elections, when young people
were protesting, and there was blood running in the streets because
Iran's security forces were massacring students and other protesters.
Khamenei wanted the security forces to be completely unleashed, so
they could kill, torture, rape, jail and bash anyone they wanted with
impunity, while the moderates in the government wanted to permit
peaceful protests, and wanted the jailed protesters to be released.
Iran's government was extremely embarrassed by its violent response to
peaceful protesters in 2009, and want to avoid a repeat, as indicated
Friday by hardline cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda:
<QUOTE>"If the security and law enforcement agencies leave
the rioters to themselves, enemies will publish films and pictures
in their media and say that the Islamic Republic system has lost
its revolutionary base in Mashhad."<END QUOTE>
So Iran's government is in a quandary. The protests are small now,
although they're a lot more widespread than the 2009 protests, which
were mainly limited to Tehran. If the protests fizzle out by
themselves, then all will be well for the time being. But if the
protests grow in the next days and weeks, then the government will be
forced to crush them, and as Alamolhoda says, world media will be
filled with pictures and video of blood running in the streets of
Tehran, as in 2009. BBC and
Iran Front Page and Reuters
Related Articles
- Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82 (09-Jan-2017)
- As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious (06-Feb-2016)
- Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win (21-May-2017)
- Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
- Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
- Iran's President Ahmadinejad facing a growing 'generation gap' (02-Jul-2007)
- Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves (25-Apr-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, PMOI/MEK, Maryam Rajavi,
Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen,
Great Islamic Revolution, Iran/Iraq war, Ahmad Alamolhoda
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
