01-01-2018, 11:23 PM
*** 2-Jan-18 World View -- Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Iran protesters kill a police officer in escalating violence
****
![[Image: g180101b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180101b.jpg)
A university student protects herself from teargas while protesting at the University of Tehran. (AP)
At least 15 people have been killed in widening street protests in
Iran, and Iran state television reports that one of the dead and
several of the wounded are police officers.
During the 2009 demonstrations, retaliation by Iran's security forces
and by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) was rapid and
bloody. Iran's government is anxious avoid a repeat of the 2009
violence and bloodshed, and so the police have been restrained, and
the IRGC has not gotten involved so far. However, the apparent ambush
of a police officer may be a game-changer.
The BBC's Iran correspondent Rana Rahimpour described how the protests
got started (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"They are being careful about how forcefully they
respond to these protests, because as [president Hassan Rouhani]
has already acknowledged, people have a very legitimate reasons to
be angry.
Over the last few months, there were scattered, relatively small
protests against many of the investment banks that have gone
almost bankrupt, had been shut down by the government, and more
than two million people have lost their life savings.
And the first Death to Rouhani slogans that we had started from
those smaller protests. So he knows that people have good reasons
to be angry. We're talking about serious corruption among the
political élite. We're talking about unemployment, which
according to his interior minister, in some parts of the country
that's up to 60%.<END QUOTE>
These investment banks were apparently involved the same sorts of
fraudulent deals as the US banks were during the subprime real estate
crisis. As their bad debt accumulated, they went bankrupt and two
million people lost their life savings. When the protests last week
in Mashad in northeastern Iran, it was specifically in reaction to the
corruption related to the bank bankruptcies, where a lot of ordinary
people lost their life savings, while many in the political élite did
well.
According to Rahimpour, the trigger for the current explosion in
protests was Rouhani's release of the upcoming annual budget, which
fully revealed the level of corruption:
<QUOTE>"Three weeks ago, president Rouhani released the
details of his upcoming budget for the Iranian new year in March,
in which it became clear that he doesn't have any control over
more than half of the budget, that are already going to many
religious organizations. And that went viral. People got
extremely angry. Cause we're talking about people that have lost
their life savings, many factory workers haven't been paid for
months, they can't pay their loans, they can't pay their
mortgages.
And suddenly they realize that OK, these religious clerical
organizations are getting millions. So that's one reason for
anger. They've raised the price of bread, recently. There's talk
of raising the price of petrol. So all of this together, and
possibly interference of regional rivals as President Rouhani
said, together, the situation was ripe for unrest like we're
witnessing right now."<END QUOTE>
On top of this, it's becoming widely believed among the Iranian
protesters that Iran got a huge financial bonanza from the Iran
nuclear deal and the ending of sanctions, but that the money had
benefited these same clerical institutions, but hadn't benefited the
ordinary people at all. This is the basis of the call for an end to
the clerical regime.
In comparing to the 2009 protests, these protests are smaller, but
they're far more widespread. The 2009 protests were concentrated
mainly in Tehran, while the new protests are taking place in many
smaller towns across Iran. Furthermore, unlike the 2009 protests, the
current protests seem to be completely spontaneous and leaderless, and
are spreading through social media.
Without a protest leadership, the police are unable to target a single
person or group of people. For that reason, the government is
shutting down access to social media in the hope of suppressing the
protests that way. Tehran Times and BBC and
Al Jazeera and Reuters
****
**** Trump and Netanyahu express solidarity with Iranian protesters
****
As long-time readers are aware, I predicted over ten years ago, based
on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would be a United
States ally in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war.
Ten years ago, the idea that Iran and the US would become allies
seemed fantastical and insane. But during the Barack Obama
administration, whatever one thinks of the Iran nuclear deal, Iran and
America overcame much of the vitriolic rancor that separated them.
The reason that Iran and the US are becoming allies is generational.
The hardliners in Iran are in the dying generations that fought in the
1979 Great Islamic Revolution, and considered the Iranian Hostage
Crisis a great victory for them. However, those people are dying off,
and the generations growing up after the war are pro-Western and
pro-American. At some point, there will be an "Awakening climax" in
Iran, like the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974, that signals the
victory of the younger generations over the war survivors, and the end
of the hardline regime. A likely outcome is that Iran will become the
same kind of ally as it was under the Shah of Iran, prior to 1979.
So we're seeing Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu expressing
friendship and support for Iran -- but not for the old geezers in the
hardline regime, but for the young generation of protesters.
Donald Trump tweeted as follows:
<QUOTE>"Big protests in Iran. The people are finally getting
wise as to how their money and wealth is being stolen and
squandered on terrorism. Looks like they will not take it any
longer. The USA is watching very closely for human rights
violations!
Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with
regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to
fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s
rights, including right to express themselves. The world is
watching!
The entire world understands that the good people of Iran want
change, and, other than the vast military power of the United
States, that Iran’s people are what their leaders fear the
most."<END QUOTE>
Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video in which he said
the following:
<QUOTE>"Iran’s cruel regime wastes tens of billions of
dollars spreading hate. This money could have built schools and
hospitals. No wonder mothers and fathers are marching in the
streets. The regime is terrified of them, of their own people.
This regime tries desperately to sow hate between us. But they
won’t succeed. And when this regime finally falls, and one day it
will, Iranians and Israelis will be great friends once again. I
wish the Iranian people success in their noble quest for
freedom."<END QUOTE>
The possible friendship between Netanyahu and the Iranian people
exposes an important conflict in the geopolitics of the Mideast.
Recently, Israel has been closely allied with Egypt in fighting
Islamist terrorists, especially in Egypt's northern Sinai. Egypt has
also been an ally of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in
the Arab split that led to the blockade of Qatar over its close
relations with Iran.
Israel has also recently been closely allied with Saudi Arabia because
of their common enmity to Iran.
If you connect all those dots and now throw in a possible future
détente between Israel and Iran, then you quickly arrive at a
conflict. This is not a trivial situation, and will almost certainly
lead to some kind of conflict not currently anticipated.
Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years
haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is
headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews
versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Reuters and Jerusalem Online
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Rana Rahimpour,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Egypt, Sinai, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Qatar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iran protesters kill a police officer in escalating violence
- Trump and Netanyahu express solidarity with Iranian protesters
****
**** Iran protesters kill a police officer in escalating violence
****
A university student protects herself from teargas while protesting at the University of Tehran. (AP)
At least 15 people have been killed in widening street protests in
Iran, and Iran state television reports that one of the dead and
several of the wounded are police officers.
During the 2009 demonstrations, retaliation by Iran's security forces
and by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) was rapid and
bloody. Iran's government is anxious avoid a repeat of the 2009
violence and bloodshed, and so the police have been restrained, and
the IRGC has not gotten involved so far. However, the apparent ambush
of a police officer may be a game-changer.
The BBC's Iran correspondent Rana Rahimpour described how the protests
got started (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"They are being careful about how forcefully they
respond to these protests, because as [president Hassan Rouhani]
has already acknowledged, people have a very legitimate reasons to
be angry.
Over the last few months, there were scattered, relatively small
protests against many of the investment banks that have gone
almost bankrupt, had been shut down by the government, and more
than two million people have lost their life savings.
And the first Death to Rouhani slogans that we had started from
those smaller protests. So he knows that people have good reasons
to be angry. We're talking about serious corruption among the
political élite. We're talking about unemployment, which
according to his interior minister, in some parts of the country
that's up to 60%.<END QUOTE>
These investment banks were apparently involved the same sorts of
fraudulent deals as the US banks were during the subprime real estate
crisis. As their bad debt accumulated, they went bankrupt and two
million people lost their life savings. When the protests last week
in Mashad in northeastern Iran, it was specifically in reaction to the
corruption related to the bank bankruptcies, where a lot of ordinary
people lost their life savings, while many in the political élite did
well.
According to Rahimpour, the trigger for the current explosion in
protests was Rouhani's release of the upcoming annual budget, which
fully revealed the level of corruption:
<QUOTE>"Three weeks ago, president Rouhani released the
details of his upcoming budget for the Iranian new year in March,
in which it became clear that he doesn't have any control over
more than half of the budget, that are already going to many
religious organizations. And that went viral. People got
extremely angry. Cause we're talking about people that have lost
their life savings, many factory workers haven't been paid for
months, they can't pay their loans, they can't pay their
mortgages.
And suddenly they realize that OK, these religious clerical
organizations are getting millions. So that's one reason for
anger. They've raised the price of bread, recently. There's talk
of raising the price of petrol. So all of this together, and
possibly interference of regional rivals as President Rouhani
said, together, the situation was ripe for unrest like we're
witnessing right now."<END QUOTE>
On top of this, it's becoming widely believed among the Iranian
protesters that Iran got a huge financial bonanza from the Iran
nuclear deal and the ending of sanctions, but that the money had
benefited these same clerical institutions, but hadn't benefited the
ordinary people at all. This is the basis of the call for an end to
the clerical regime.
In comparing to the 2009 protests, these protests are smaller, but
they're far more widespread. The 2009 protests were concentrated
mainly in Tehran, while the new protests are taking place in many
smaller towns across Iran. Furthermore, unlike the 2009 protests, the
current protests seem to be completely spontaneous and leaderless, and
are spreading through social media.
Without a protest leadership, the police are unable to target a single
person or group of people. For that reason, the government is
shutting down access to social media in the hope of suppressing the
protests that way. Tehran Times and BBC and
Al Jazeera and Reuters
****
**** Trump and Netanyahu express solidarity with Iranian protesters
****
As long-time readers are aware, I predicted over ten years ago, based
on a Generational Dynamics analysis, that Iran would be a United
States ally in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war.
Ten years ago, the idea that Iran and the US would become allies
seemed fantastical and insane. But during the Barack Obama
administration, whatever one thinks of the Iran nuclear deal, Iran and
America overcame much of the vitriolic rancor that separated them.
The reason that Iran and the US are becoming allies is generational.
The hardliners in Iran are in the dying generations that fought in the
1979 Great Islamic Revolution, and considered the Iranian Hostage
Crisis a great victory for them. However, those people are dying off,
and the generations growing up after the war are pro-Western and
pro-American. At some point, there will be an "Awakening climax" in
Iran, like the resignation of Richard Nixon in 1974, that signals the
victory of the younger generations over the war survivors, and the end
of the hardline regime. A likely outcome is that Iran will become the
same kind of ally as it was under the Shah of Iran, prior to 1979.
So we're seeing Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu expressing
friendship and support for Iran -- but not for the old geezers in the
hardline regime, but for the young generation of protesters.
Donald Trump tweeted as follows:
<QUOTE>"Big protests in Iran. The people are finally getting
wise as to how their money and wealth is being stolen and
squandered on terrorism. Looks like they will not take it any
longer. The USA is watching very closely for human rights
violations!
Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with
regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to
fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s
rights, including right to express themselves. The world is
watching!
The entire world understands that the good people of Iran want
change, and, other than the vast military power of the United
States, that Iran’s people are what their leaders fear the
most."<END QUOTE>
Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video in which he said
the following:
<QUOTE>"Iran’s cruel regime wastes tens of billions of
dollars spreading hate. This money could have built schools and
hospitals. No wonder mothers and fathers are marching in the
streets. The regime is terrified of them, of their own people.
This regime tries desperately to sow hate between us. But they
won’t succeed. And when this regime finally falls, and one day it
will, Iranians and Israelis will be great friends once again. I
wish the Iranian people success in their noble quest for
freedom."<END QUOTE>
The possible friendship between Netanyahu and the Iranian people
exposes an important conflict in the geopolitics of the Mideast.
Recently, Israel has been closely allied with Egypt in fighting
Islamist terrorists, especially in Egypt's northern Sinai. Egypt has
also been an ally of Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in
the Arab split that led to the blockade of Qatar over its close
relations with Iran.
Israel has also recently been closely allied with Saudi Arabia because
of their common enmity to Iran.
If you connect all those dots and now throw in a possible future
détente between Israel and Iran, then you quickly arrive at a
conflict. This is not a trivial situation, and will almost certainly
lead to some kind of conflict not currently anticipated.
Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years
haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is
headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews
versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Reuters and Jerusalem Online
Related Articles
- Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
- The coming regime change in Iran (09-Nov-2015)
- Iran's younger generations propel Rouhani to decisive presidential win (21-May-2017)
- Report: Israel and Saudi Arabia are allying against Iran and Hezbollah (28-May-2016)
- Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Hassan Rouhani, Rana Rahimpour,
Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Egypt, Sinai, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Qatar
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
