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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • Al-Assad's continued chlorine attacks on civilians follow Putin's 'Grozny model'
  • Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe

****
**** Al-Assad's continued chlorine attacks on civilians follow Putin's 'Grozny model'
****


[Image: g180113b.jpg]
Aftermath of al-Assad attack on Eastern Ghouta on January 4 (Reuters)

Warplanes belonging to the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
carried out chlorine gas attacks in Eastern Ghouta, a city in the
suburbs of Syria's capital city Damascus. Health workers said that
six people were treated for minor breathing problems.

Canisters of chlorine gas are sometimes called "the poor man's atom
bomb." They don't kill large numbers of people, but they have a
different purpose of forcing large numbers of people out into the
open. This is part of the "Grozny strategy" used by Russia's
president Vladimir Putin, so-named because he used it in Grozny in
Russia's 1990s war with Chechnya. In the Grozny strategy, civilians
are forced out into the open so that they can be targeted like fish in
a barrel, and killed in large numbers.

Frequent chlorine gas attacks in Eastern Ghouta are part of that
strategy. The regular missiles and barrel bomb explosions force
civilians, especially women and children, to hide in basements or deep
in building interiors. Chlorine gas is heavier than air, so the
chlorine gas seeps into underground hiding places, and forces the
women and children out into the streets, where al-Assad's forces can
massacre the women and children in large numbers. Al-Assad considers
these women and children to be cockroaches, and are to be exterminated
like cockroaches.

Al-Assad is following the same policy he used a year ago to totally
destroy East Aleppo, with 275,000 people, in about six months.
Eastern Ghouta has about 400,000 people, so al-Assad has a long way to
go. Al-Assad has also targeted Ghouta with several Sarin gas attacks.

In the meantime, his warplanes are specifically targeting hospitals
and schools, and the army is preventing food and medicines from
entering the region, so that the people can be starved to death. This
is the same technique used by al-Assad last year to destroy East
Aleppo. BBC and Daily Mail (London) and LA Times (13-Feb-2017) and CNN (7-Sep-2016) and Arms Control Association (17-Nov-2017)

****
**** Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe
****


The regime of Syria's president is pursuing a strategy in Idlib
province that could trigger a refugee "catastrophe," and send hundreds
of thousands of Syrian refugees north across the border into Turkey,
and from there into Europe.

According to Thomas Garofalo of the International Rescue Committee
(IRC):

<QUOTE>"We are extremely concerned for the safety of the 2.6
million people living in Idlib if the frontline continues to
advance. People have told us that they will have no choice but to
uproot themselves once again and head further north. They will be
heading to displacement camps that are already far beyond
capacity, which means their situation will get even worse, in the
dead of a wet, cold winter."<END QUOTE>


Previously, an estimated 1.1 million people have fled to other parts
of Syria.

Already, more than 70,000 people have fled their homes and moved
further into Idlib to escape the latest wave of al-Assad's violence.
Many have sought refuge near the border with Turkey. Activists say
whole villages near the frontline have been abandoned. "There could
be a really parlous humanitarian catastrophe," said one European
diplomat.

As hundreds of thousands of refugees flee north toward the border with
Turkey, Turkey's army is prepared to block them from crossing the
border. These refugees will be trapped, and they'll be sitting ducks
as targets of Syrian and Russian airstrikes, including barrel bombs,
chlorine, and Sarin. Since Turkey is preventing them from escaping,
Turkey will become active partner in the mass slaughter, and they'll
be accused of allowing it to happen. Rather than being accused of
enabling al-Assad's mass slaughter, Turkey may well be forced to
permit them to cross the border to flee al-Assad's violence

Another possible scenario is that rather than be blamed for helping
the mass slaughter, Turkey may decide to fight the Syrians, and may be
joined by Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). The
Generational Dynamics prediction is of a major war, pitting Sunnis
versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against
each other, and this is one scenario how it can occur.

No matter which of these scenarios occurs, hundreds of thousands of
refugees will pour out of Idlib into Turkey, and then into Europe.

As I've written many times in the past, Bashar al-Assad is the worst
genocidal monster so far this century. The Syrian war began in 2011
when al-Assad ordered his army and air force to attack peacefully
protesting civilians, including women and children. Things really
worsened in August 2011, when al-Assad launched a massive military
assault on a large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia,
filled with tens of thousands of women and children Palestinians. He
dropped barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous
and chemical weapons onto innocent Sunni women and children, he
targeted bombs on schools and hospitals, and he used Sarin gas to kill
large groups of people.

Both Eastern Ghouta and Idlib Province are supposed to be in
"de-escalation zones," and free from attacks. These de-escalation
zones were negotiated by Russia, Iran and Turkey. As I wrote all
along, they had no chance of working since al-Assad did not agree to
them, and had no intention of honoring them. The de-escalation zones
are a total farce on the part of Russia, a farce compounded in
December when Vladimir Putin declared that the war had ended.
Guardian (London) and Al Araby (UK) and Guardian (London)

Related Articles


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Eastern Ghouta, Aleppo,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Chechnya, Grozny strategy,
chlorine gas, Sarin gas, Idlib, Turkey,
Thomas Garofalo, International Rescue Committee, IRC

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14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands mor - by John J. Xenakis - 01-13-2018, 11:13 PM
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