01-19-2018, 10:46 PM
*** 20-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
****
![[Image: g180119b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180119b.jpg)
Many thousands of displaced Syrians in Afrin and Idlib will likely be displaced again (AFP)
For months, Turkish officials, including president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, have been threatening to invade a region of northern Syria to
kill or expel Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militias. The
target region is a corridor of land along the northern border between
the cities of Afrin in the west and Manbij in the east. We've
reported on Turkey's plans to invade Afrin and Manbij several times in
the past.
On Friday, Turkish military forces massed on Turkey's southern border
with Syria, and began artillery shelling targets within Afrin. There
has been described as the beginning of the Turkish officials, but so
far Turkish troops have not crossed the border, and no time is being
given for when that will happen. Because there have been numerous
claims for months that an invasion of Afrin was coming soon, and none
has occurred so far, we cannot be certain that an actual invasion will
occur at this time, or whether it's just another bluff. Presumably,
we will know by the end of the weekend.
If the ground invasion occurs, Turkey's forces will be combined with
forces from the Free Syrian Army, which is comprised of Syrian Arabs
and Turkmens.
This invasion would not lead to a direct conflict with US-backed
forces in the recently announced Border Security Force (BSF), because
Afrin and Manbij are both west of the Euphrates River Value, which is
the western boundary of the region to be patrolled by the BSF.
However, the US State Dept. has counseled Turkey not to attack YPG
forces in Afrin, because doing so could destabilize the entire region.
The US has been working with the YPG because the Kurds have proven
themselves to be the most effective fighters in Syria against the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) -- better than
the Turks, the Russians and the Syrians. However, Turkey is
infuriated by this relationship, because they consider all Kurds in
Syria to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is a
terrorist group that has conducted an insurgency within Turkey for
three decades, and has perpetrated number spectacular terrorist
bombings in Turkey. But Turkish officials have called the BSD a
"terrorist army" being supported by the US military, and have vowed to
"drown" it. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and News Click (India)
Related Articles
****
**** Collapse of the Russian 'peace process'
****
Another major player in the region is the Russian military. Russia's
president Vladimir Putin has been pursuing his delusional peace in
Syria with the hope of being recognized worldwide as the man who
brought peace to Syria.
Actually, Russia's attempts at peace have just been another farce.
Russia, Iran and Turkey held several rounds of peace talks last year
in Astana, Kazakhstan, and came up with a plan for four
"de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones." Unfortunately, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad did not endorse the talks, nor any of its
agreements. So al-Assad has completely ignored the de-confliction
zones, using them as cover to continue his genocidal acts, such as
attacking innocent women and children in Eastern Ghouta using WMDs
(chlorine gas) and barrel bombs. In addition, al-Assad's barrel bombs
and missiles are specifically targeting hospitals and schools, in
order to destroy as much life as possible.
So Russia's de-confliction zones have simply been turned int al-Assad
war zones. Because of his delusional belief in these de-confliction
zones, Putin announced in December that the war was over, but it's far
from over. Putin also announced that Russian troops would be
withdrawn, but repeated attacks on Russia's Khmeimim airbase by
"terrorists" means that Russian troops will have to remain, since
protection of the base cannot be trusted to dysfunctional Syrian
troops.
Another part of Putin's delusional peace plan was that he was going to
convince the Kurds to agree to some kind of peace arrangement with
Bashar al-Assad, and convince the YPG to give up its weapons, so that
everyone could live in peace and happiness.
That plan has already been upended by the US announced of the Border
Security Force, which is to consist of 15,000 hardened YPG fighters,
along with another 15,000 trainees. Turkey has expressed so much fury
and outrage over what it calls this "terrorist army," that the US
backing off somewhat, and saying that, oh, it's not really an army or
anything like that, but just a bunch of policemen doing guard duty.
However, the Turks don't believe that.
But Russia still has a relationship with the Kurds, and last year
Putin sent troops to Afrin, presumably to protect the Kurds from the
Turks. So there have been reports all week that the Turks were
meeting with the Russians to ask for permission to invade Afrin. The
reports on Friday were that Russian troops were withdrawing from
Afrin, but other unconfirmed reports from Russia say that the Russians
are denying that they're withdrawing their troops.
So, we know that Turkey is massing troops, but there are a couple of
things that we don't know: We don't know whether Turkey got Russia's
permission, and we don't know if Turkey will invade anyway. Jamestown and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters
Related Articles
****
**** The growing conflagration in northwest Syria
****
Turkey's invasion of northern Syria would come at the same time that
Bashar al-Assad is pursuing massive waves of attacks on ordinary
civilians in Idlib, another one of Russia's "de-confliction zones" or
"ceasefire zones" which al-Assad has turned into war zones.
There are 2.6 million civilians living in Idlib, and they've
essentially become sitting ducks for massive attacks by Syrian and
Russian warplanes. ( "14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe"
)
Hundreds of thousands of civilians are being forced to flee north
toward the border with Turkey, and in many scenarios, they will cross
the border into Turkey, and produce new waves of migrants reaching
Europe.
At the same time, Turkey is threatening to attack Kurdish enclaves in
a region stretching from Afrin to Manbij, creating even more hundreds
of thousands of refugees. These two situations could combine to bring
about a refugee disaster of massive proportions. This would be a
repeat of what's already occurred, when millions of Syrian refugees
fled into neighboring countries, with more than a million reaching
Europe.
Reading the Turkish media makes it clear that Turkey is becoming
extremely nationalistic and xenophobic, with the xenophobia directed
not only at the Kurds, but also at Americans and Israelis, who are
increasingly being blamed for their troubles. Turkey's relationship
with Russia is a marriage of convenience if there ever was one, and
the actions by Russia's ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Idlib are creating a
refugee disaster on Turkey's doorstep.
Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years
haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is
headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews
versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Anadolu (Ankara) and Al Araby (UK)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Afrin, Manbij, Border Security Force, BSF,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, de-confliction zones, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Eastern Ghouta, Idlib, Khmeimim airbase, Bashar al-Assad
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
- Collapse of the Russian 'peace process'
- The growing conflagration in northwest Syria
****
**** Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria
****
Many thousands of displaced Syrians in Afrin and Idlib will likely be displaced again (AFP)
For months, Turkish officials, including president Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, have been threatening to invade a region of northern Syria to
kill or expel Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militias. The
target region is a corridor of land along the northern border between
the cities of Afrin in the west and Manbij in the east. We've
reported on Turkey's plans to invade Afrin and Manbij several times in
the past.
On Friday, Turkish military forces massed on Turkey's southern border
with Syria, and began artillery shelling targets within Afrin. There
has been described as the beginning of the Turkish officials, but so
far Turkish troops have not crossed the border, and no time is being
given for when that will happen. Because there have been numerous
claims for months that an invasion of Afrin was coming soon, and none
has occurred so far, we cannot be certain that an actual invasion will
occur at this time, or whether it's just another bluff. Presumably,
we will know by the end of the weekend.
If the ground invasion occurs, Turkey's forces will be combined with
forces from the Free Syrian Army, which is comprised of Syrian Arabs
and Turkmens.
This invasion would not lead to a direct conflict with US-backed
forces in the recently announced Border Security Force (BSF), because
Afrin and Manbij are both west of the Euphrates River Value, which is
the western boundary of the region to be patrolled by the BSF.
However, the US State Dept. has counseled Turkey not to attack YPG
forces in Afrin, because doing so could destabilize the entire region.
The US has been working with the YPG because the Kurds have proven
themselves to be the most effective fighters in Syria against the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) -- better than
the Turks, the Russians and the Syrians. However, Turkey is
infuriated by this relationship, because they consider all Kurds in
Syria to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is a
terrorist group that has conducted an insurgency within Turkey for
three decades, and has perpetrated number spectacular terrorist
bombings in Turkey. But Turkish officials have called the BSD a
"terrorist army" being supported by the US military, and have vowed to
"drown" it. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and News Click (India)
Related Articles
- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
- Turkey's assault on Kurds in Afrin, Syria, may jeopardize the battle in Raqqa (14-Jul-2017)
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
****
**** Collapse of the Russian 'peace process'
****
Another major player in the region is the Russian military. Russia's
president Vladimir Putin has been pursuing his delusional peace in
Syria with the hope of being recognized worldwide as the man who
brought peace to Syria.
Actually, Russia's attempts at peace have just been another farce.
Russia, Iran and Turkey held several rounds of peace talks last year
in Astana, Kazakhstan, and came up with a plan for four
"de-confliction zones" or "ceasefire zones." Unfortunately, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad did not endorse the talks, nor any of its
agreements. So al-Assad has completely ignored the de-confliction
zones, using them as cover to continue his genocidal acts, such as
attacking innocent women and children in Eastern Ghouta using WMDs
(chlorine gas) and barrel bombs. In addition, al-Assad's barrel bombs
and missiles are specifically targeting hospitals and schools, in
order to destroy as much life as possible.
So Russia's de-confliction zones have simply been turned int al-Assad
war zones. Because of his delusional belief in these de-confliction
zones, Putin announced in December that the war was over, but it's far
from over. Putin also announced that Russian troops would be
withdrawn, but repeated attacks on Russia's Khmeimim airbase by
"terrorists" means that Russian troops will have to remain, since
protection of the base cannot be trusted to dysfunctional Syrian
troops.
Another part of Putin's delusional peace plan was that he was going to
convince the Kurds to agree to some kind of peace arrangement with
Bashar al-Assad, and convince the YPG to give up its weapons, so that
everyone could live in peace and happiness.
That plan has already been upended by the US announced of the Border
Security Force, which is to consist of 15,000 hardened YPG fighters,
along with another 15,000 trainees. Turkey has expressed so much fury
and outrage over what it calls this "terrorist army," that the US
backing off somewhat, and saying that, oh, it's not really an army or
anything like that, but just a bunch of policemen doing guard duty.
However, the Turks don't believe that.
But Russia still has a relationship with the Kurds, and last year
Putin sent troops to Afrin, presumably to protect the Kurds from the
Turks. So there have been reports all week that the Turks were
meeting with the Russians to ask for permission to invade Afrin. The
reports on Friday were that Russian troops were withdrawing from
Afrin, but other unconfirmed reports from Russia say that the Russians
are denying that they're withdrawing their troops.
So, we know that Turkey is massing troops, but there are a couple of
things that we don't know: We don't know whether Turkey got Russia's
permission, and we don't know if Turkey will invade anyway. Jamestown and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Reuters
Related Articles
- Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination (07-Jan-2018)
- Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hug and declare the end of war in Syria (27-Nov-2017)
- Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory (18-Dec-2016)
****
**** The growing conflagration in northwest Syria
****
Turkey's invasion of northern Syria would come at the same time that
Bashar al-Assad is pursuing massive waves of attacks on ordinary
civilians in Idlib, another one of Russia's "de-confliction zones" or
"ceasefire zones" which al-Assad has turned into war zones.
There are 2.6 million civilians living in Idlib, and they've
essentially become sitting ducks for massive attacks by Syrian and
Russian warplanes. ( "14-Jan-18 World View -- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe"
)
Hundreds of thousands of civilians are being forced to flee north
toward the border with Turkey, and in many scenarios, they will cross
the border into Turkey, and produce new waves of migrants reaching
Europe.
At the same time, Turkey is threatening to attack Kurdish enclaves in
a region stretching from Afrin to Manbij, creating even more hundreds
of thousands of refugees. These two situations could combine to bring
about a refugee disaster of massive proportions. This would be a
repeat of what's already occurred, when millions of Syrian refugees
fled into neighboring countries, with more than a million reaching
Europe.
Reading the Turkish media makes it clear that Turkey is becoming
extremely nationalistic and xenophobic, with the xenophobia directed
not only at the Kurds, but also at Americans and Israelis, who are
increasingly being blamed for their troubles. Turkey's relationship
with Russia is a marriage of convenience if there ever was one, and
the actions by Russia's ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Idlib are creating a
refugee disaster on Turkey's doorstep.
Generational Dynamics predictions that I've been posting for years
haven't changed. Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is
headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews
versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Anadolu (Ankara) and Al Araby (UK)
Related Articles
- Syria's al-Assad threatens to drive hundreds of thousands more refugees into Turkey and Europe (14-Jan-2018)
- Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Afrin, Manbij, Border Security Force, BSF,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, de-confliction zones, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Eastern Ghouta, Idlib, Khmeimim airbase, Bashar al-Assad
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
