Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Jan-18 World View -- Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin
  
• China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' in new confrontation in South China Sea
  
• Summary of major Generational Dynamics predictions
  

****
**** Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin
****


Map showing Syrian cities of Afrin and Manbij, both Kurdish YPG strongholds, and targets of Turkey's planned invasions (al-Jazeera)

While we're stuck with suffering through the unbelievably pathetic
clown circus going on in Washington, there are actually things going
on in other parts of the world.

Turkey's military operation against Syria's Afrin region that we described yesterday
has begun.
Turkish warplanes have conducted hundreds of airstrikes at Kurdish YPG
(People's Protection Units) targets in Afrin. Turkey-backed Free
Syrian Army (FSA) militias are moving into Afrin to conduct the ground
war. The FSA consists of Arabs and Turkmens opposed to the regime of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Russia says that it has moved its 300 or so troops out of Afrin to
safety. Russia, which controls the airspace over Afrin, is not
stopping Turkey's airstrikes, indicating that Russia is giving tacit
approval to Turkey's operation.

Turkey's own troops have not crossed the border into Syria, although
there have been reports of trucks carrying Turkish tanks crossing the
border to Afrin. Turkey would have no reason to commit its own troops
unless the FSA troops started getting bogged down.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the after Afrin
the next target will be Manbij. Although Manbij is west of
the Euphrates River Valley, there are American units in the region,
so a clash with Americans would be a possibility, although it's
likely that both sides would do everything to avoid it.

In a speech on Saturday, Erdogan said:

<QUOTE>"The promises made to us over Manbij were not kept. So
nobody can object if we do what is necessary.

Later we will, step by step, clear our country up to the Iraqi
border from this terror filth that is trying to besiege our
country."<END QUOTE>

This refers to several American promises that were not kept. The
Americans promised that the YPG would be armed and trained only until
the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was defeated
in Raqqa, but is continuing to arm and train YPG fighters for its
Border Security Force (BSF). The Americans promised that they would
withdraw as soon as ISIS was defeated, but now are saying that they
will stay indefinitely, rather than risk repeating the blunder
made with the 2011 withdrawal from
Iraq.

Turkey's ground invasion is highly risky. Both the FSA militias and
the YPG militias are battle hardened, and the victory in Afrin may not
be as quick as Erdogan is fantasizing. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and Hurriyet

Related Articles

• Turkey's troops mass on border, preparing to invade northern Syria (20-Jan-2018)
  
  
• US in Syria announces a Border Security Force to prevent repeat of Iraq withdrawal blunder (16-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' in new confrontation in South China Sea
****


Map showing that the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal is far from China, but within the Philippines EEZ (Inquirer)

According to Lu Kang, the spokesman for China's foreign ministry:

<QUOTE>"On the night of January 17, the USS Hopper missile
destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles off China's Huangyan Dao
[i.e., the Philippines' Scarborough Shoal] without gaining
permission from the Chinese government. ...

China has indisputable sovereignty over Huangyan Dao [Scarborough
Shoal] and the adjacent waters."<END QUOTE>

Lu Kang is a serial liar. Whether the subject is Doklam Plateau,
the South China Sea, Taiwan, or North Korea, Lu Kang says any
nonsense he wants, with no regard for the facts.

China has no sovereignty whatsoever over the Scarborough Shoal. It's
within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, as shown
by the above map. In 2016, Lu Kang and China were completely
humiliated when United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the
Hague ruled that all of China's claims in the South China Sea were hoaxes and lies.

Even the word "indisputable" is a lie on its face. Obviously China's
claims are disputable, have been disputed, and have been shown to be
false. Lu Kang is a serial liar.

American naval spokesman Commander Nicole Schwegman responded:

<QUOTE>"The United States conducts routine and regular FONOPs
[Freedom of Navigation Operations], as we have done in the past
and will continue to do so in the future.

We have a comprehensive FONOP program under which U.S. forces
challenge excessive maritime claims across the globe to
demonstrate our commitment to uphold the rights, freedoms and
lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all nations
under international law. FONOPs are not about any one country, nor
are they about making political statements. FONOPS are designed to
comply with international law and not threaten the lawful security
interest of coastal States."<END QUOTE>

That the US simply ignores China's false claims in the South China
Sea is undoubtedly very humiliating to the Chinese, who become
infuriated whenever anyone challenges their false claims.

This is the second time this week that the Chinese were humiliated by
an American action. The US and Canada co-sponsored an international meeting to discuss the North Korea crisis,
and China was totally infuriated that it wasn't
invited to attend. Foreign Ministry of China and Inquirer (Manila) and ABC News

Related Articles

• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues (01-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

****
**** Summary of major Generational Dynamics predictions
****

The following is a summary of the major Generational Dynamics
predictions that I've posted in the past. None of this is new, except
that all of these predictions are listed together in one place. These
predictions have been essentially unchanged for over ten years.

First, by way of introduction, although I sometimes call myself the
gloomiest person in the world, it's worth noting that there are other
forecasts that are gloomier than mine. These include the
following:

• The view that any nuclear war will kill all humanity, with the
  possible exception of some scattered small communities that move to
  sealed underground caves to escape the radiation.
  
  
• The Biblical end times: Parallels are drawn between today's events
  and the visions in Revelations, leading to the prediction that Jesus
  Christ will return soon.
  
  
• Albert Einstein: "I know not with what weapons World War III will
  be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
  
  
• A new Dark Age, similar to the Dark Ages of Medieval times,
  characterized by centuries of ignorance and barbarism will
  begin.

So my oft-stated Generational Dynamics predictions are these:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. As
  in 1929, there will be a quick recovery from the panic, but the crash
  will continue over a long period, with stock prices falling 90%.
  However, the trigger and timing of the panic cannot be predicted.
  
  
• The Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis
  versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against
  each other.
  
  
• The world is headed for WW III, a Clash of Civilizations world
  war, in which the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
  countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia,
  Iran and the West.
  
  
• Like WW I and WW II, WW III will last around five years, though
  there may be regional offshoots that last longer. (Examples: China's
  Communist Revolution, India-Pakistan Partition war, and Jew-Arab
  Mideast war after WW II.)
  
  
• There will be no Biblical end times outcome. A special mention
  must be made of Isaiah 17:1-3, which predicts the destruction of
  Damascus, turning it from a city into "a heap of ruins." Almost
  everyone in the Mideast seems to know about this prophecy, so if
  anyone ever nukes Damascus, it would be with the specific purpose and
  intent of fulfilling the prophecy, which would make it a
  self-fulfilling prophecy.
  
  
• By the end of the war, every nuclear weapon in the world will have
  been used on some target. However, this does not mean that everyone
  will be killed. The kill range of a nuclear weapon is 10-20 miles,
  even counting deaths from radiation, so only a tiny fraction of the
  world's population will be killed by nuclear weapons.
  
  
• A total of about 3-4 billion people will be killed by the war,
  from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons, ground war, marauding
  gangs, disease and starvation, leaving around 4 billion people to
  rebuild the world.
  
  
• At the end of the war, there will be an international conference
  in some place like Geneva to come up with a way to guarantee that
  nothing like this ever happens again. National boundaries will be
  redrawn as necessary. The United Nations will be restructured.
  
  
• Technology development will continue as before. Most of the world
  will be minimally but solidly rebuilt within five years. This will be
  a typical generational First Turning Recovery Era.
  
  
• The Singularity will occur around 2030. The future of the human
  race after that point is uncertain.

Related Articles

• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  
  
• Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement (09-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Google's AlphaGo computer defeats world champion at game of Go (13-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030 (28-Dec-2015)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Afrin,
Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG,
Afrin, Manbij, Border Security Force, BSF,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Bashar al-Assad,
China, Lu Kang, Philippines, Scarborough Shoal, Panatag Shoal,
USS Hopper, Nicole Schwegman, South China Sea
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, North Korea,
Generational Dynamics predictions

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John J. Xenakis
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