01-26-2018, 11:40 PM
*** 27-Jan-18 World View -- Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement
****
![[Image: g130101b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g130101b.jpg)
Djenna Mosque in Timbuktu, Mali, built around 1300, was under attack by Tuareg rebellion
A spate of jihadist terror attacks in central Mali on Thursday left
nearly forty people dead. At least 26 people were killed in a
landmine explosion that was targeting the UN's peacekeeping mission in
Mali. The peacekeeping mission is named MINUSMA, or the
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission. There were two
further attacks, also on Thursday in central Mali, killing seven
jihadists and two soldiers.
The irony is that, whether by accident or on purpose, the jihadist
attacks occurred just after the UN Security Council (UNSC) issued a
statement criticizing the government and several ethnic groups in Mali
for not implementing a 2015 peace agreement. The Security Council
threatened additional sanctions against officials in Mali if the terms
of the peace deal haven't been implemented by the end of March.
Once again, watching a UNSC "peace process" in action, one has the
feeling that one is watching a farce. The 2015 peace agreement was
signed by the government and by several ethnic and rebel groups who
are mostly cooperating with the government. But Mali is a huge
country and the agreement does not cover all of it, and of course the
jihadists that conducted Thursday's attacks were not party to the
agreement at all. So it's hard to see how the agreement even makes
any sense.
Apparently the thought behind the agreement is that government and
these rebel groups would work together to defeat the jihadists, and so
bring peace to the land. If they really wanted to do that, then they
wouldn't need a peace agreement, and anyway, Mali is too large a
country to be governable.
The UN Security Council statement is actually quite interesting, since
it lists all the things that the parties have to do to bring peace to
Mali. Here are some excerpts:
<QUOTE>"The members of the Security Council expressed a
shared sense of impatience regarding the persistent delays in the
full implementation of key provisions of the Agreement. They
underscored the pressing need to deliver tangible and visible
peace dividends to the population in the north and other parts of
Mali. ...
The members of the Security Council stressed in this context the
importance of taking immediate and concrete action to fully and
expeditiously deliver on key provisions of the Agreement, in
particular through: progress in the decentralization process,
including through the holding of appropriate consultations between
the parties aimed at reviewing and strengthening consensus on
existing legislation and through the adoption of legislation
establishing a regional territorial police force; the
operationalization of the interim administrations in the north of
Mali, including through the allocation of the necessary human,
technical and financial resources to perform their missions;
progress in the cantonment and disarmament, demobilization and
reintegration processes, including through the definition of
adequate eligibility criteria and reintegration quotas and through
the submission of finalized lists of candidates, as well as
progress in the security sector reform, with a view to the
progressive redeployment of the reconstituted armed and security
forces in Mali; the establishment of the Operational Coordination
Mechanism in Kidal and Timbuktu; and ensuring full and equal
participation of women."<END QUOTE>
That's an interesting list of tasks. It's a shame that none of them
has much to do with ending jihadist attacks or bringing peace.
And notice the last task "and ensuring full and equal participation of
women." This shows what a farce this is. Instead of worrying about
stopping jihadist attacks, they're worried that the security forces
will be half men and half women. You'd think that this was a parody
dreamed up by people who want to mock and ridicule the United Nations,
but no, this is the real thing. Radio France Internationale (RFI) and AP and United Nations
****
**** War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era
****
The downfall of Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 created a
domino effect that led to a rebellion in northern Mali by the Tuaregs,
an ethnic groups spread across northern Africa's Sahel region between
Libya and Mali. The domino effect continued when the chaos of the
Tuareg rebellion led to an al-Qaeda linked jihadist incursion.
The jihadists were briefly chased out by France's Operation Serval,
but they returned, and led to other rebel and jihadist groups to enter
the region. There were numerous international efforts, mainly led by
France, to eject the rebel and jihadist groups. The most ambitious
was Operation Barkhane, an offensive deployed in 2014 in five
countries, which sought to fight jihadists in five countries -- Mali,
Mauritania, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. The United Nations
peacekeeping effort, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization
Mission (MINUSMA), was established on April 25, 2013.
It was just a week ago that we reported that Britain agreed to send three RAF CH-47 Chinook transport heavy lift helicopters
to provide logistical support to
France's Operation Barkhane, along with 50-60 support staff.
MINUSMA has been pretty much a failure, and has come under increasing
criticism. According to a United Nations analysis released earlier
this week, MINUSMA is being reassessed.
Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping
Operations, says the following:
<QUOTE>"Five years after the Mission’s establishment and two
years and a half after the signature of the peace agreement, we
believe the time has come to reassess the assumptions that
underpin MINUSMA’s presence, review its key mandated tasks against
achievements on the ground and reexamine the Mission’s layout
through a comprehensive strategic review."<END QUOTE>
Of course, this political gobbledygook really says nothing, but it
does express increasing anxiety over what's taking place.
Now, that statement was released before Thursday's attack targeting
the MINUSMA peacekeepers themselves. In general, jihadists are
increasingly targeting UN peacekeepers, and this is no exception.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this appears to be a
textbook case of what happens when a country is about to enter a
generational Crisis era.
Mali's last generational crisis war was the Tuareg rebellion that
climaxed in 1963.
After a crisis civil war reaches a climax and is settled, the
traumatized survivors reach an agreement to make sure that nothing
like it ever happens again. But as younger generations grow up after
the war, low-level violence begins and increases. As the war
survivors die off, this violence becomes more violent and occurs more
often, although the war survivors prevent it from tipping into
full-scale war.
Based on examination of hundreds of examples in all places and times
in history, Generational Dynamics has found that a turning point is
reached 58 years after the climax of the preceding crisis war, which
is the time when the country enters a new generational Crisis era
("fourth turning"). That seems to be the point in time when the
generations of war survivors disappear (retire or die) so completely
that they're unable to prevent another war, and so a new crisis war
can begin in any of the years that follow.
So 2018 is the 55th year after the end of the 1963 Tuareg Rebellion.
History has shown that's a little too early for full-scale war to
occur. But as each year passes, there are fewer and fewer war
survivors around, and there are more and more kids in the younger
generations with a thirst for war.
This is what we're seeing now. The United Nations Security Council
made a 2015 peace agreement with representatives of the old geezers in
the war survivor generation. The agreement is nice to have, but it's
completely irrelevant to the increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic
younger generations. So there is zero probability that the 2015
agreement will be implemented, and there is zero probability that
MINUSMA or the United Nations will have any success whatsoever in
quelling the violence in Mali, which is only going to increase.
IRIN News and United Nations
and 2015 Mali Peace Agreement and BBC (20-Aug-2017)
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Tuareg, Timbuktu, Djenna Mosque,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission, MINUSMA,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, France, Operation Serval, Operation Barkhane,
Jean-Pierre Lacroix
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement
- War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era
****
**** Jihadists attack UN peacekeepers in Mali just as UN demands that Mali implement peace agreement
****
Djenna Mosque in Timbuktu, Mali, built around 1300, was under attack by Tuareg rebellion
A spate of jihadist terror attacks in central Mali on Thursday left
nearly forty people dead. At least 26 people were killed in a
landmine explosion that was targeting the UN's peacekeeping mission in
Mali. The peacekeeping mission is named MINUSMA, or the
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission. There were two
further attacks, also on Thursday in central Mali, killing seven
jihadists and two soldiers.
The irony is that, whether by accident or on purpose, the jihadist
attacks occurred just after the UN Security Council (UNSC) issued a
statement criticizing the government and several ethnic groups in Mali
for not implementing a 2015 peace agreement. The Security Council
threatened additional sanctions against officials in Mali if the terms
of the peace deal haven't been implemented by the end of March.
Once again, watching a UNSC "peace process" in action, one has the
feeling that one is watching a farce. The 2015 peace agreement was
signed by the government and by several ethnic and rebel groups who
are mostly cooperating with the government. But Mali is a huge
country and the agreement does not cover all of it, and of course the
jihadists that conducted Thursday's attacks were not party to the
agreement at all. So it's hard to see how the agreement even makes
any sense.
Apparently the thought behind the agreement is that government and
these rebel groups would work together to defeat the jihadists, and so
bring peace to the land. If they really wanted to do that, then they
wouldn't need a peace agreement, and anyway, Mali is too large a
country to be governable.
The UN Security Council statement is actually quite interesting, since
it lists all the things that the parties have to do to bring peace to
Mali. Here are some excerpts:
<QUOTE>"The members of the Security Council expressed a
shared sense of impatience regarding the persistent delays in the
full implementation of key provisions of the Agreement. They
underscored the pressing need to deliver tangible and visible
peace dividends to the population in the north and other parts of
Mali. ...
The members of the Security Council stressed in this context the
importance of taking immediate and concrete action to fully and
expeditiously deliver on key provisions of the Agreement, in
particular through: progress in the decentralization process,
including through the holding of appropriate consultations between
the parties aimed at reviewing and strengthening consensus on
existing legislation and through the adoption of legislation
establishing a regional territorial police force; the
operationalization of the interim administrations in the north of
Mali, including through the allocation of the necessary human,
technical and financial resources to perform their missions;
progress in the cantonment and disarmament, demobilization and
reintegration processes, including through the definition of
adequate eligibility criteria and reintegration quotas and through
the submission of finalized lists of candidates, as well as
progress in the security sector reform, with a view to the
progressive redeployment of the reconstituted armed and security
forces in Mali; the establishment of the Operational Coordination
Mechanism in Kidal and Timbuktu; and ensuring full and equal
participation of women."<END QUOTE>
That's an interesting list of tasks. It's a shame that none of them
has much to do with ending jihadist attacks or bringing peace.
And notice the last task "and ensuring full and equal participation of
women." This shows what a farce this is. Instead of worrying about
stopping jihadist attacks, they're worried that the security forces
will be half men and half women. You'd think that this was a parody
dreamed up by people who want to mock and ridicule the United Nations,
but no, this is the real thing. Radio France Internationale (RFI) and AP and United Nations
****
**** War becomes more likely as Mali enters a generational Crisis era
****
The downfall of Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 created a
domino effect that led to a rebellion in northern Mali by the Tuaregs,
an ethnic groups spread across northern Africa's Sahel region between
Libya and Mali. The domino effect continued when the chaos of the
Tuareg rebellion led to an al-Qaeda linked jihadist incursion.
The jihadists were briefly chased out by France's Operation Serval,
but they returned, and led to other rebel and jihadist groups to enter
the region. There were numerous international efforts, mainly led by
France, to eject the rebel and jihadist groups. The most ambitious
was Operation Barkhane, an offensive deployed in 2014 in five
countries, which sought to fight jihadists in five countries -- Mali,
Mauritania, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. The United Nations
peacekeeping effort, the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization
Mission (MINUSMA), was established on April 25, 2013.
It was just a week ago that we reported that Britain agreed to send three RAF CH-47 Chinook transport heavy lift helicopters
to provide logistical support to
France's Operation Barkhane, along with 50-60 support staff.
MINUSMA has been pretty much a failure, and has come under increasing
criticism. According to a United Nations analysis released earlier
this week, MINUSMA is being reassessed.
Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping
Operations, says the following:
<QUOTE>"Five years after the Mission’s establishment and two
years and a half after the signature of the peace agreement, we
believe the time has come to reassess the assumptions that
underpin MINUSMA’s presence, review its key mandated tasks against
achievements on the ground and reexamine the Mission’s layout
through a comprehensive strategic review."<END QUOTE>
Of course, this political gobbledygook really says nothing, but it
does express increasing anxiety over what's taking place.
Now, that statement was released before Thursday's attack targeting
the MINUSMA peacekeepers themselves. In general, jihadists are
increasingly targeting UN peacekeepers, and this is no exception.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this appears to be a
textbook case of what happens when a country is about to enter a
generational Crisis era.
Mali's last generational crisis war was the Tuareg rebellion that
climaxed in 1963.
After a crisis civil war reaches a climax and is settled, the
traumatized survivors reach an agreement to make sure that nothing
like it ever happens again. But as younger generations grow up after
the war, low-level violence begins and increases. As the war
survivors die off, this violence becomes more violent and occurs more
often, although the war survivors prevent it from tipping into
full-scale war.
Based on examination of hundreds of examples in all places and times
in history, Generational Dynamics has found that a turning point is
reached 58 years after the climax of the preceding crisis war, which
is the time when the country enters a new generational Crisis era
("fourth turning"). That seems to be the point in time when the
generations of war survivors disappear (retire or die) so completely
that they're unable to prevent another war, and so a new crisis war
can begin in any of the years that follow.
So 2018 is the 55th year after the end of the 1963 Tuareg Rebellion.
History has shown that's a little too early for full-scale war to
occur. But as each year passes, there are fewer and fewer war
survivors around, and there are more and more kids in the younger
generations with a thirst for war.
This is what we're seeing now. The United Nations Security Council
made a 2015 peace agreement with representatives of the old geezers in
the war survivor generation. The agreement is nice to have, but it's
completely irrelevant to the increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic
younger generations. So there is zero probability that the 2015
agreement will be implemented, and there is zero probability that
MINUSMA or the United Nations will have any success whatsoever in
quelling the violence in Mali, which is only going to increase.
IRIN News and United Nations
and 2015 Mali Peace Agreement and BBC (20-Aug-2017)
Related Articles
- Britain and France renew 1904 Entente Cordiale with new military agreement (19-Jan-2018)
- Timbuktu's ancient history at risk over chaotic Mali rebellion (04-Apr-2012)
- Tuareg rebels declare independent state of Azawad in northern Mali (07-Apr-2012)
- Mali conflict explodes into ground war and hostage crisis (17-Jan-2013)
- Mali hotel terror attack highlights al-Qaeda's strength in Africa (21-Nov-2015)
- Jihadist attacks in Mali surge with rise of al-Qaeda linked JNIM (04-Oct-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Tuareg, Timbuktu, Djenna Mosque,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission, MINUSMA,
Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, France, Operation Serval, Operation Barkhane,
Jean-Pierre Lacroix
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
